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That's still a very difficult thing to measure, this "pull" effect even if we knew the raw numbers involved. Still, for my own edification, let's see what are the numbers here, under 400 admitted, about 3,000 applied... Do you know what the total number 8th graders are in FFX by any chance?
This I find possible, but tenuous, a reach. TJ's overall impact on other schools in Fairfax can't be measured so off-handedly. There are some who think that it lowers the quality of other schools by removing the top tier students (the usual anti-elitist argument). I don't agree with this view given the very small numbers, but the point is that there are so many factors and variables that I don't think your scenario (which I consider to be "best case" devoid of any other consideration) is very plausible.
One day, perhaps there would be something equivalent to TJ in Loudoun and we can then equalize the variables better.
I will reframe the question(s) again - (1) what are factors that might attract (or "pull") people to Fairfax, rather than another jurisdiction; and (2) why does Fairfax have lower median incomes than Loudoun, but higher test scores (SATs/SOLs). Otherwise, our exchanges will devolve into a back-and-forth (similar to some of your exchanges with BBD) that is very hard for all but the most attentive C-D readers to follow.
I offered TJ's presence in Fairfax as one such "pull"/explanation. It's certainly not offered up as a complete explanation, but I think there's likely something to it. To respond to your last question, FCPS has had about 10,000 8th graders in recent years. During the same period, TJ has also had about 3200 public school applicants. Assume 80% come from Fairfax, since roughly 80% of the students admitted live in Fairfax. That suggests that over 25% of 8th graders in Fairfax apply to TJ each spring - which I would view as consistent with the notion that TJ is a "pull" for some families to Fairfax over other jurisdictions that are not as close to the school. Keep in mind that TJ is not in Herndon or Chantilly, but instead in eastern Fairfax close to the West End of the City of Alexandria.
There could be other explanations with respect to the test score differential. For example, insofar as SAT scores are concerned (where there's about a 60-point difference), it's widely understood that SAT scores correlate with family income and education levels. Although Loudoun has higher median incomes than Fairfax, it's possible that the median incomes of the families of students in Fairfax who sit for these tests are higher than those for similar Loudoun families. In addition, there may be families in Fairfax with similar educational backgrounds to those in Loudoun, but who are in lower-income jobs (i.e., a defense contractor in Ashburn may get paid more than a government economist in Fairfax). Or there may be differences in the instructional programs that play a role. These are all possibilities.
There could be other explanations with respect to the test score differential. For example, insofar as SAT scores are concerned (where there's about a 60-point difference), it's widely understood that SAT scores correlate with family income and education levels. Although Loudoun has higher median incomes than Fairfax, it's possible that the median incomes of the families of students in Fairfax who sit for these tests are higher than those for similar Loudoun families. In addition, there may be families in Fairfax with similar educational backgrounds to those in Loudoun, but who are in lower-income jobs (i.e., a defense contractor in Ashburn may get paid more than a government economist in Fairfax). Or there may be differences in the instructional programs that play a role. These are all possibilities.
Concerning demographics, you must account for the population size difference between the two counties. There are a lot more wealthy, well-educated households in Fairfax than in Loudoun. Thus, Fairfax County can fill more classrooms with kids we would expect to score highly on the SAT regardless of where they lived and the quality of the school.
I would think that figure would vary wildly depending on where in Loudoun. And of course, once we factor out density and possibly other variables, we would get a more useful picture of the effects of the variables we might be discussing.
But that assumes they couldn't have bought a similar house in another part of Fairfax. For the sake of this policy discussion, comparing contiguous areas (but located in different jurisdictions and thus different policies) would help isolate variables better.
I am not sure that there is anywhere in Fairfax where there is room for the volume of new construction of spacious, over 3000-SF homes that there has been in places like Ashburn in recent years. But help me out - where are the continguous areas in western Fairfax where there are homes similar to those in adjacent parts of Loudoun going for less money? The most likely scenario I could imagine would a TH in some parts of Herndon or Centreville perhaps going for less than a similar (though likely somewhat newer) TH in Ashburn or South Riding.
Concerning demographics, you must account for the population size difference between the two counties. There are a lot more wealthy, well-educated households in Fairfax than in Loudoun. Thus, Fairfax County can fill more classrooms with kids we would expect to score highly on the SAT regardless of where they lived and the quality of the school.
Yes, and there are a lot more kids whose families are receiving assistance in Fairfax than in Loudoun, too. But it's possible that, since kids in the latter category will be less likely to take college admissions exams, the net effect is to Fairfax's advantage insofar as comparisons of test scores are concerned (although some might note that may pose other challenges to Fairfax).
And that still leaves open the question as to why children whose families fall in the former category happen to be living in Fairfax, when they could live in other jurisdictions, and appears to assume - without really making the case - that there is no difference in school quality. As to the former point, I have posited that TJ's presence in Fairfax may be relevant. As to the latter point, I'm not saying that there is any difference, but there might be.
Yes, and there are a lot more kids whose families are receiving assistance in Fairfax than in Loudoun, too. But it's possible that, since kids in the latter category will be less likely to take college admissions exams, the net effect is to Fairfax's advantage insofar as comparisons of test scores are on the table (although some might believe that disadvantages Fairfax in other respects).
And that still leaves open the question as to why children whose families fall in the former category happen to be living in Fairfax, when they could live in other jurisdictions, and appears to assume - without really making the case - that there is no difference in school quality. As to the latter point, I'm not saying that there is, but neither am I prepared to declare that there is not (having personally experienced differences in school quality within FCPS alone).
In Fairfax, you have a longer history of sorting. Those with means crowd into the neighborhoods that feed into the schools with the best reputations. The result is the spread that we have discussed. Given time, I would expect to see the same pattern develop in Loudoun.
The reputation of Fairfax schools is most definitely a draw (pull factor). The perceived quality of a school is a strong predictor of migration. To anyone spending time on city-data, that should be obvious. Furthermore, Loudoun schools aren't going to draw wealthy households out of Fairfax County. The migration from Fairfax to Loudoun concerns other factors.
In Fairfax, you have a longer history of sorting. Those with means crowd into the neighborhoods that feed into the schools with the best reputations. The result is the spread that we have discussed. Given time, I would expect to see the same pattern develop in Loudoun.
The reputation of Fairfax schools is most definitely a draw (pull factor). The perceived quality of a school is a strong predictor of migration. To anyone spending time on city-data, that should be obvious. Furthermore, Loudoun schools aren't going to draw wealthy households out of Fairfax County. The migration from Fairfax to Loudoun concerns other factors.
On the other hand, we have decades of experience studying this spread's development -- and Loudoun's BoS, HOA boards, etc., won't let their area become the next Sterling Park.
why does Fairfax have lower median incomes than Loudoun, but higher test scores (SATs/SOLs).
Many people migrate to Loudoun after they have children. And their children are still very young, not in high school yet. This can explain why Fairfax has lower median income than Loudoun, but higher test scores. I think Loudoun's average SAT score will keep going up in the years to come, as it has been.
Personally, dozens of my friends with kindergarden aged children have moved to Loudoun. Among these families, graduate degrees of both parents are the norm rather than the exception. When their kids enter high schools, the distribution of SAT scores in Loudoun will certainly be different than today.
A small portion of my friends did move back to Fairfax. But the only two school districts they consider are Langley and Mclean. The top schools in Fairfax are still going to be top because of their demographics.
Many people migrate to Loudoun after they have children. And their children are still very young, not in high school yet. This can explain why Fairfax has lower median income than Loudoun, but higher test scores. I think Loudoun's average SAT score will keep going up in the years to come, as it has been.
Personally, dozens of my friends with kindergarden aged children have moved to Loudoun. Among these families, graduate degrees of both parents are the norm rather than the exception. When their kids enter high schools, the distribution of SAT scores in Loudoun will certainly be different than today.
A small portion of my friends did move back to Fairfax. But the only two school districts they consider are Langley and Mclean. The top schools in Fairfax are still going to be top because of their demographics.
Loudoun's scores went down two points this year, but LCPS did say they've gone up 15 points over the past five years, so it seems the longer-term trend is positive. In general, Loudoun doesn't make as much statistical information available in readily accessible formats as Arlington, Fairfax or Montgomery, which may reflect a prudent allocation of resources, but can be slightly frustrating for those who enjoy mining data.
If you really parse what you said in the first paragraph, you're suggesting that younger families in Loudoun are, or will be, more educated and affluent than older ones in Loudoun, since Loudoun obviously has current high school students who take these exams. I thought about that possibility in the exchanges with India Lima Delta. Since high schoolers who take SATs are typically 16 or 17, the image that came to my mind was a bunch a 17-year-old locusts who will burst upon the scene in 20__ and start doing really well on their SATs, but I decided that would come across as snarky, even though I liked the metaphor.
Your comment about friends moving back to the Langley and McLean districts strikes me as anecdotal - maybe they are people who work in DC or Tysons and want to cut down their commutes? There are quite a few other schools in Fairfax that people would generally consider pretty similar to McLean, including Madison, Marshall, Oakton and Woodson. Langley may be a special case, as its demographics are singularly affluent among NoVa high schools, and I have also heard of instances where people are only interested in living in that district.
Your comment about friends moving back to the Langley and McLean districts strikes me as anecdotal - maybe they are people who work in DC or Tysons and want to cut down their commutes?
I agree that personal experience is anecdotal. But for my friends who want to move to the Langley or McLean school district, school is what they are after, not the shorter commute. I know this because school is such a frequent topic among certain groups. It is from them I learned there's the better McLean that goes to Langley versus the other McLean that goes to McLean. I asked questions about the other good high schools such as Madison and Oakton and surprised to learn that they were not considered good enough. For a few folks, the daily commute from Great Falls is not that pretty. I have several friends who have been searching for a suitable home in the Langley district for more than 18 months due to their "limited" budget and unwillingness to settle in a 30-50 year old house. Nonetheless they are not giving up. It does strike me as a little obsessive to be honest. Recently another group of new immigrants joined the chase. They are the ones who have "made it" in Far East's recent prosperity. They are also after the Langley district. The difference is their budget is not quite limited and they are willing to pay cash.
Sometimes I wonder if it is true that all schools are the same. The difference only lies in the students and the parents. In a way I hope it is true. I really enjoy living in Loudoun and don't want to move to FFX for the sole purpose of schools. I don't have to commute on a regular basis so shorter commute is not going to be a benefit for me.
Many people migrate to Loudoun after they have children. And their children are still very young, not in high school yet. This can explain why Fairfax has lower median income than Loudoun, but higher test scores. I think Loudoun's average SAT score will keep going up in the years to come, as it has been.
You make a good and important observation. Also, newer schools (which Loudoun must build to deal with the influx) are more socio-economically diverse than established schools. Another consideration are the retirees that Loudoun attracts. These are wealthy households without children.
What matters is the median income of all the households that send children to a certain high school. That would be an appropriate comparison, not county-to-county.
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