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Inspired by the SAT scores thread, the dramatic spread between Fairfax high schools suggests a strong push factor. Meaning, something negative is pushing out households to other counties. JEB77's reaction to my comment got me to thinking about Loudoun as a greenfield that should attract Fairfax refugees, thus explaining the dramatic increase in household income for Loudoun County.
I looked at IRS tax return data for 1996-2010 for all VA counties to/from Loudoun County. On net, over 92,000 people (exemptions) moved from Fairfax to Loudoun. Second largest source for Loudoun County inmigrants is Arlington County with a net of a bit over 5,000.
Also using IRS tax return data, I can run queries for adjusted gross income. For 1996-2010, Loudoun County gained $3.66 billion thanks to migration. That was tops for all of Virginia. Prince William was second with +$1.19 billion. Fairfax County was dead last, losing $4.91 billion via net outmigration. That's a staggering transfer of wealth.
Don't forget there are a lot of Marylanders escaping Montgomery County's "millionaire" tax, which is now down to $100,000aires. Our area of Western Loudoun had a boatload.
Don't forget there are a lot of Marylanders escaping Montgomery County's "millionaire" tax, which is now down to $100,000aires. Our area of Western Loudoun had a boatload.
I ran the numbers for only Virginia. But I'd expect other "mature" suburbs to send wealthy households to Loudoun.
Inspired by the SAT scores thread, the dramatic spread between Fairfax high schools suggests a strong push factor. Meaning, something negative is pushing out households to other counties. JEB77's reaction to my comment got me to thinking about Loudoun as a greenfield that should attract Fairfax refugees, thus explaining the dramatic increase in household income for Loudoun County.
I looked at IRS tax return data for 1996-2010 for all VA counties to/from Loudoun County. On net, over 92,000 people (exemptions) moved from Fairfax to Loudoun. Second largest source for Loudoun County inmigrants is Arlington County with a net of a bit over 5,000.
Also using IRS tax return data, I can run queries for adjusted gross income. For 1996-2010, Loudoun County gained $3.66 billion thanks to migration. That was tops for all of Virginia. Prince William was second with +$1.19 billion. Fairfax County was dead last, losing $4.91 billion via net outmigration. That's a staggering transfer of wealth.
The language that you use about Fairfax is fairly loaded (in particular, the phrases "something negative" and "refugees"), which makes me wonder whether you really dislike Fairfax or just wanted to "level the playing field" in response to a thread that indicated that FCPS SAT scores continue to be higher than those in Loudoun and some other jurisdictions. [I don't have time to dig up the post at the moment, but I've previously posted that, in light of the demographic changes taking place among Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, my expectation is that, over the immediate term, we may see test scores decline in Fairfax and increase in Arlington and Loudoun, at least until Fairfax spruces up some of its aging areas and more of the TOD-type developments take off.]
I would have thought the emphasis could have been placed on what's positive about Loudoun that attracts some people there from Fairfax and other jurisdictions (things like less expensive housing and newer schools and shopping areas) and/or positive about Fairfax that makes it possible for people to live in Loudoun and still have a job within a reasonable commute (things like plenty of employers). Your post reads a bit more like the O'Malley-McDonnell sparring on an inter-county level, which some local politicians certainly have not shied away from at times.
The language that you use about Fairfax is fairly loaded ("something negative" and "refugees" in particular), which makes me wonder whether you really dislike Fairfax or wanted to "level the playing field" in response to a thread that indicated that FCPS SAT scores continue to be higher than those in Loudoun and other jurisdictions. [I don't have time to dig up the post at the moment, but I've previously posted that, in light of demographic changes among Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, my expectation is that, over the immediate term, we are likely to see test scores decline in Fairfax and increase in Arlington and Loudoun, at least until Fairfax spuces up some of its older areas and more of the TOD-type developments take off.]
I would have thought the emphasis could have been placed on what's positive about Loudoun that attracts some people there from Fairfax and other jurisdictions (things like less expensive housing and newer schools) and/or positive about Fairfax that makes it possible for people to live in Loudoun and still have a job within reasonable commute (things like plenty of employers). Your post reads a bit more like the O'Malley-McDonnell sparring on an inter-county level.
Push factors for migration are, by definition, negative. I could talk only about Loudoun's pull factors. But that would be silly, in light of the data. I don't dislike Fairfax or especially love Loudoun, for that matter. I wouldn't advocate for leveling the playing field.
I like your evolution model. I would expect Loudoun high schools to spread as Fairfax high schools have. That might pose a bigger problem for Loudoun that it has for Fairfax. Fairfax County is an economic development juggernaut and is nationally renown. That established employment base is a difference-maker. I think of my post as a warning for Loudoun County. Over the time period I analyzed, the inmigration of wealth to Fairfax is a wonder to behold. Looking at the net balance doesn't tell the entire story. It highlights trends.
First of all, Fairfax has over 1 million residents. The reason why so many leave Fairfax is because they like large houses and can't afford them in Fairfax and are willing to expand their commute. Many of those people however begin hating life after a couple years of dealing with said commute and come back after saving up more money. Really, as far as "want to live" both have their benefits and are seeing plenty of people moving in.
The real reason WHY loudoun grows faster than Fairfax is because the county allows it to, where as in Fairfax we learned our lessons about sprawl and are trying to fix the problems of the past with new focused development areas. When One Loudoun opens it will dump hundreds, if not thousands, of new units for cheap on the market and clearly will draw plenty of people who might be renting in Fairfax or Arlington.
That doesnt mean that its helping improve Loudoun, or that Fairfax is "losing these people". If you dont believe me look at the average home prices and average time on the market between the counties a far better indicator of what the populace and market say.
First of all, Fairfax has over 1 million residents. The reason why so many leave Fairfax is because they like large houses and can't afford them in Fairfax and are willing to expand their commute. Many of those people however begin hating life after a couple years of dealing with said commute and come back after saving up more money. Really, as far as "want to live" both have their benefits and are seeing plenty of people moving in.
The real reason WHY loudoun grows faster than Fairfax is because the county allows it to, where as in Fairfax we learned our lessons about sprawl and are trying to fix the problems of the past with new focused development areas. When One Loudoun opens it will dump hundreds, if not thousands, of new units for cheap on the market and clearly will draw plenty of people who might be renting in Fairfax or Arlington.
That doesnt mean that its helping improve Loudoun, or that Fairfax is "losing these people". If you dont believe me look at the average home prices and average time on the market between the counties a far better indicator of what the populace and market say.
Good point about the population. I didn't control for those differences between Loudoun and Fairfax. Conceivably, the rate of migration from Loudoun to Fairfax could exceed that of Fairfax to Loudoun despite the net migration. Being neighbors (sharing a border is a strong predictor of migration) is another factor I didn't discuss.
I'm skeptical of your last paragraph. Inter-metro migration might explain all the disparity between average home prices and average time on the market. Before I moved to Leesburg, I didn't even know Loudoun County existed. Fairfax County's reputation (excellent, by the way) precedes it.
I could drill down further into the migration numbers. The intra-regional pattern is common. But discussing these issues is difficult given the apparent rivalry. Economically speaking, there isn't a contest. Fairfax would smoke just about every county in the States including Loudoun.
I like your evolution model. I would expect Loudoun high schools to spread as Fairfax high schools have. That might pose a bigger problem for Loudoun that it has for Fairfax. Fairfax County is an economic development juggernaut and is nationally renown. That established employment base is a difference-maker. I think of my post as a warning for Loudoun County. Over the time period I analyzed, the inmigration of wealth to Fairfax is a wonder to behold. Looking at the net balance doesn't tell the entire story. It highlights trends.
The spread of FFX HS test scores is largely due to socio-economic differences between different parts of the county. Loudoun is more homogeneous so it is not suprising the test scores there are more clustered. This is unlikely to change due to current zoning and development patterns so it is likely they will remain less divergent than those in FFX.
Last edited by shamrock847; 10-02-2012 at 08:55 PM..
First of all, Fairfax has over 1 million residents. The reason why so many leave Fairfax is because they like large houses and can't afford them in Fairfax and are willing to expand their commute. Many of those people however begin hating life after a couple years of dealing with said commute and come back after saving up more money.
I am curious what you are basing this on. Many people in Loudoun work in western Fairfax or Loudoun and have the same commute time or less than they would if they lived in Fairfax.
First of all, Fairfax has over 1 million residents. The reason why so many leave Fairfax is because they like large houses and can't afford them in Fairfax and are willing to expand their commute.
That might be true with some people, but with many others the motivation appears a little bit different. I lived in Ashburn in the past and still own property there. When I asked my former neighbors why they moved to Ashburn from closer-in suburbs, the answer was rarely bigger houses for less money. Most cited 1) job relocation, as in, their employers moved from closer-in suburbs to Loudoun County, e.g. Raytheon or 2) quality of life, as in, some of these folks felt that the inner suburbs have become too crowded and filled with traffic and had become too urbanized and no longer suburban enough for their tastes.
In my old neighborhood in Ashburn there were packs of young children running about together, riding bicycles, scooters and wagons, rather like a scene straight out of the 1950's (only the kids are now much more multi-ethnic). In my new neighborhood in Fairfax, not so much.
In fact, my family and I regret moving from Loudoun to Fairfax. Perhaps it's just us and our admittedly anecdotal experience, but *we* have found people here more hurried and less friendly. Once when my wife was pregnant with one of our kids in Loudoun and was struggling with groceries outside the Wegman's in Sterling, a mom of teenage boys admonished her children for not helping my wife quickly enough! Contrast that to our experience in Fairfax Wegman's where my youngest was almost run over by a person who was too busy talking on the mobile phone and shopping at the same time. And no apology either -- just took off quickly in another direction.
So we have been thinking about selling our house in Fairfax (bought only a year ago and renovated extensively at a very high cost) and moving back to Loudoun. Funny enough, my immediate neighbor is thinking about doing the same! She says many of her friends moved to Loudoun. At one time, she lived the most westerly in the area among her friends, but now she is the most easterly.
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That doesnt mean that its helping improve Loudoun, or that Fairfax is "losing these people". If you dont believe me look at the average home prices and average time on the market between the counties a far better indicator of what the populace and market say.
Except average home price and time on market only speak to the relative demand vs. supply in that particular market segment and cannot be generalize for all consumers as a whole. For example, just because Georgetown has higher average home price and/or time on the market does not mean most consumers want to live there, it simply means the relative supply of available homes there greatly exceeds whatever the demand is. That can happen even if the supply and demand in that market are very small in absolute terms. Price is only a snapshot signal of imbalance rather than absolute quantities or direction, for that matter.
Clearly there is a migration of people from east to west in this region and it may not be that the trend is entirely or even in the main driven by the desire to own a larger home at a lower cost (to be clear, I acknowledge that does happen too -- I am not denying that). If that were the case, there should be migrations toward other directions as well (away from DC/inner suburbs) of similar strength.
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Originally Posted by shamrock847
The spread of FFX HS test scores is largely due to socio-economic differences between different parts of the county. Loudoun is more homogeneous so it is not suprising the test scores there are more clustered. This is unlikely to change due to current zoning and development patterns so it is likely they will remain less divergent than those in FFX.
That's actually another thing I miss about Loudoun. There is higher socio-economic difference in Fairfax than Loudoun. As you put it, Loudoun tends to be more economically and educationally homogeneous and I believe that helps to create more social harmony. My old neighbors and I used to joke that we had no poor or rich people in Ashburn, just a huge blob of moderately affluent people. And I like it that way!
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Originally Posted by shamrock847
I am curious what you are basing this on. Many people in Loudoun work in western Fairfax or Loudoun and have the same commute time or less than they would if they lived in Fairfax.
Again, this is completely anecdotal, but when I first moved to Ashburn, most of my neighbors worked in DC or in the inner suburbs. By the time I left Ashburn, most of my neighbors had jobs in Loudoun County.
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