If Amazon hits, will you stay or cash out? (Alexandria: real estate, how much)

[NOVAmtneer82]

I think Amazon will pick Northern Virginia for their second headquarters location but I think the key difference between here and Seattle is that our real estate prices are already really expensive. Seattle hasn't been known as a cheap city for decades but their prices were still considerably lower than here (and WAY below San Francisco Bay Area where many of their transplants move from). Amazon and other economic improvements seem to have been the final tipping point in bringing their real estate closer to or on par with prices in this area. Will we see additional increases? Sure. But I don't think it will be anything like what has happened in Seattle.

[NC211]

Originally Posted by Abraham Walker

I think Amazon is going to cause a massive shift in home values.

Look at the current inventory levels.

We're at less than 2 months supply of homes.

Where will the people live?

Everybody isn't interested in a 1-hour commute both ways.

California coast is an excellent example of what happens when supply and demand affect the real estate market. Some economist believes that prices in California are 20% higher than expected because people with money do not care about economist expectations.

We're also seeing more landlords sell their rental homes and an increase in vacant lots being sold in the area. These are signs that the market is doing well.

Add more people to the market and you have an increase in prices.

Not to mention, builders in the area are not building enough homes to cover demand.

I have seen several commercial real estate properties hit the market around the bid sites as well, fetching top dollar already just on the speculation of Amazon picking the site near them. Office, apartments, land, etc. When I analyze the offering and look at the numbers, the price points are based on future numbers, not existing. And these sellers are getting what they want for their properties. It's really amazing (if not unsettling) to see, and just of strong speculation. Pretty clear to me what the buyers are hoping for - a quick flip if Amazon indeed picks nearby.


Wish I had a crystal ball!


While we're not San Fran, we're not Kansas City either. I read an article a few months ago that had an interesting (and shocking) statistic about San Fran. I'm probably a little off on exact numbers (memory), but the article basically said that like 3 years ago less than 25% of San Fran's homes were over $1M. Today that number is approaching 70% and climbing.


I agree that Seattle's prices have been more steady. Not really a cheap city in general, but I think if you compare the climb in their housing prices to the climb of Amazon's market presence, you'll see a connection. Here, we're talking about an immediate hit from an established and mature company instead of one trying to find it's spot of success, like Seattle has watched happen.


We'll see what happens. Hope they announce soon, because it's driving people crazy!

[skeddy]

The median house price in Seattle just hit a record $757,000.

[NC211]

And I believe all of Loudoun County just went over $500k median as well. Pretty amazing when you consider the townhomes and more spread out parts of the county other than just Ashburn and adjacent.

When we moved here in late 2011, we bought a new construction home in Broadlands/Brambleton, 4,000 sf, .28 acre, with unobstructed views west to the mountains....for $585k. I don’t think that’s even possible anymore in Loudoun?

[Abraham Walker]

Here are some stats about Loundon County from the MLS

Quick Snapshot


June 2018 vs June 2017



Median Sales Trend by Quarter for the past 10 years

[Nate_VA]

I’m going to cash out and relocate whether Amazon comes or not.
As much as I love the DC area, I can retire earlier someplace else.

[Old Guard]

Originally Posted by NC211

I know there are other locations under consideration. I'm just playing the "what if" game here. Personally, I think it's Dulles. But we'll all have to wait and see.


I don't know if it'll go that high or not. Would be a huge leap. But when you read about what Amazon did to Seattle's cost of living, and think about our already tight housing supply, it does make you wonder what might happen. Might not too.


In my situation, I bought a fixer-upper for about $0.70 on the dollar three years ago now. I've been fixing it up, and I am really wondering if if if if Amazon does indeed hit at the Dulles site, if I might be in a situation where rising tides lift all boats to the point of reconsidering my zip code options.

What effect did Amazon have on Seattle home pricing? Seattle already had some major US HQ's and is a nice city. For me personally I think if things do not change the SFH prices in this area will go up higher, like a few hundred K higher, but it will be years not days and it will happen whether Amazon comes or not. I live in Fairfax County outside of Falls Church and believe the INOVA Fairfax hospital and research center will have more affect on my home value than Amazon. The only thing rising prices mean is that I will not be able to retire in this area which I had hoped for.

[Old Guard]

One thing I would like to add, people think that companies like Amazon pay more, I do not think they do, I know if you do not have a unique skill set that they need that in the past big companies like this would pay market value or less because they know you want to get their name on your resume. You do not become a successful company by overpaying.

[Piney Creek]

I think the likelihood of Amazon choosing the DC metro area is very high.


If that happens, I think the odds are highest they would choose the Reston/Herndon site or the White Flint site. I have several different reasons to believe this, if you're interested I detailed them in the thread on the Amazon HQ in the General US forum.


If they choose the Dulles site, I think that will definitely escalate the market in certain parts of Sterling and Ashburn. Those areas are currently on the tipping point of becoming a hot market, and this would push it over. I can imagine Herndon would also become a hotter market, especially in the historic section. Reston is already hot, so I don't think it would be affected to the same degree.


The affect would be direct and indirect. In other words, some of the new buyers would be Amazon employees (some moving to the area, some already in DC who will now want to live near their new jobs). The indirect affect will be younger buyers will start seeing eastern Loudoun as more desirable. Amazon would bring with it a certain cachet, not to mention increasing numbers of hip restaurants, etc.



Would I cash out? If you have somewhere else to go or an extra house to sell, sure. I'm already selling a house there, and to be honest we held off on listing it until this fall partly because we wanted to see if Amazon would choose Reston. We have a price set for our house right now; if an announcement is made before we list you can bet our price will go up. Not a lot, maybe, but up.

[Piney Creek]

Re: traffic. I'm not so worried that traffic will get worse, except possibly on 28 and the feeder streets for it. New residents will be balanced by those people who get jobs there who also are currently commuting to jobs in DC. (Their commute will be significantly shorter with a big campus out where they live, so that balances it out.)


Loudoun has spent the last decade building new roads and interchanges in preparation for things like this. So I think the impact there will be minimal.