What Amazon’s HQ2 will mean for house prices in Ashburn? (Arlington: real estate, buy)

[Piney Creek]

Originally Posted by kevinm

Exactly. Why would prices of houses out in the "sticks" be affected by stuff that happens inside the beltway?

Because some employees will live out there. Just like other people who work in Crystal city live out there.

[ChristineVA]

Originally Posted by Piney Creek

Because some employees will live out there. Just like other people who work in Crystal city live out there.

But they will scatter to various suburbs: Ashburn, Woodbridge, Springfield. Basically anything on the VRE line to Crystal City. Not everyone is going to be making enough money to have a home in Arlington or DC. They'll scatter out into the various suburbs.

[sonnymarkjiz]

Originally Posted by kevinm

Exactly. Why would prices of houses out in the "sticks" be affected by stuff that happens inside the beltway?

This comment is laughable...even if Amazon didn't come to Crystal City. People who can afford a home and want space that Arlington/Alexandria don't provide? People with families who like the suburban life? Anywhere with housing near the Metro (Silver line) or VRE will definitely see a spike in interest of homes from potential Amazon employees.

[Piney Creek]

Originally Posted by ChristineVA

But they will scatter to various suburbs: Ashburn, Woodbridge, Springfield. Basically anything on the VRE line to Crystal City. Not everyone is going to be making enough money to have a home in Arlington or DC. They'll scatter out into the various suburbs.

Exactly so. You and I are saying the same thing, maybe just putting it differently.


Also, in addition to Amazon employees who might want to live in the burbs, there are a good number of people thinking of "cashing out" their places in or near Arlington, and moving out to the burbs. I know several retirees, in particular, who no longer need to be near DC for their jobs and have grown weary of the traffic, yet they want to remain in the DC metro area because they have family there.

[22003yo]

Even with the eventual silver line, Ashburn to CC is quite the commute. Driving that everyday would be a nightmare. I doubt more than a small handful would be willing to make that commute. So I'd say little to no effect on housing prices.

[ChristineVA]

I may be pessimistic but I just don't see anything big happening.

First off, based on news reports, 25,000 aren't showing up overnight. If that were the case, you may see a mad scramble for housing and a noticeable bump in property rates. But the 25,00 are coming in stages. 400 in 2019, 1200 in 2020, and then maybe it picks up after that.

While average salary seems to be pretty high, that is an average. So some below and some above that amount.

We all know how expensive it is to leave in the Arlington DC area. My cousin bought a "normal" 2500 square foot home in Arlington a few years ago but both her and her spouse were pulling down over 6 figures. We don't know how the Amazon employees are going to be, overall, with income.

Basically, I think the 25,000 employees are going to trickle in and then disperse all over the Metro area as employees who worked in Crystal City have done for decades, so it won't really make a significant change in housing prices. I think you need to see far more people influx into the area to get a noticeable gain in home values. Although, it certainly doesn't hurt that they are coming and, as has been said earlier, diversifying the types of business in the DC Metro area is good for the area.

[cdmurphy]

Originally Posted by 22003yo

Even with the eventual silver line, Ashburn to CC is quite the commute. Driving that everyday would be a nightmare. I doubt more than a small handful would be willing to make that commute. So I'd say little to no effect on housing prices.

But we already have jampacked commuter buses that go from Ashburn to Rosslyn/Crystal City/DC. I don't think the Amazon deal with have as much impact on our housing prices as the Silver Line itself will.

[rome99]

Why would majority of good earning Amazon employees want to live in 500 sq. ft apartment or 1500 sq. ft townhouse? Only unmarried and young couple would prefer that lifestyle. I think at least 10 to 25% of them will eventually scatter to various suburbs including Ashburn in few years. That will send the home prices significantly higher than what they are today.

Originally Posted by Piney Creek

Exactly so. You and I are saying the same thing, maybe just putting it differently.


Also, in addition to Amazon employees who might want to live in the burbs, there are a good number of people thinking of "cashing out" their places in or near Arlington, and moving out to the burbs. I know several retirees, in particular, who no longer need to be near DC for their jobs and have grown weary of the traffic, yet they want to remain in the DC metro area because they have family there.

[NOVA_guy]

Originally Posted by ChristineVA

I may be pessimistic but I just don't see anything big happening.

First off, based on news reports, 25,000 aren't showing up overnight. If that were the case, you may see a mad scramble for housing and a noticeable bump in property rates. But the 25,00 are coming in stages. 400 in 2019, 1200 in 2020, and then maybe it picks up after that.

While average salary seems to be pretty high, that is an average. So some below and some above that amount.

We all know how expensive it is to leave in the Arlington DC area. My cousin bought a "normal" 2500 square foot home in Arlington a few years ago but both her and her spouse were pulling down over 6 figures. We don't know how the Amazon employees are going to be, overall, with income.

Basically, I think the 25,000 employees are going to trickle in and then disperse all over the Metro area as employees who worked in Crystal City have done for decades, so it won't really make a significant change in housing prices. I think you need to see far more people influx into the area to get a noticeable gain in home values. Although, it certainly doesn't hurt that they are coming and, as has been said earlier, diversifying the types of business in the DC Metro area is good for the area.

I don't think you're being pessimistic. We already have a large amount of high-paying jobs, there was a report that WTOP ran that the DC area was third for having the most six-figure paying jobs: https://wtop.com/business-finance/20...gure-salaries/

That's not to say Amazon won't change things, anytime you have that large of a player coming into town, it's going to cause some disruption but I think prices will go up in DC, Arlington and Alexandria. MAYBE Falls Church and Tysons but that's a huge maybe. I don't see it doing anything to places further out - Ashburn, Woodbridge, Montclair, Herndon, Chantilly, etc. And since the jobs are going to be phased in over a period of years, it may not be as drastic in Arlington, so we'll see.

[NC211]

What will be interesting to watch is what happens to AWS in Herndon. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if it relocated to the CC campus location in a couple of years. They’re already busting at the seams at that location.

The pricier it gets in Arlington, the more attractive it gets further out. Kind’ve hard to buy 1,500sf for $1m+ with a 30 minute stoplight commute over 6,000sf for the same price with a 60 minute train ride commute when you’ve got a minivan lifestyle (for some)...