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Old 09-20-2020, 11:03 PM
 
Location: Kailua, HI
20 posts, read 16,381 times
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Looks like condos on the Waikiki are going down but Single Family homes and lands are holding if not increasing in the price!

What is your expectation about the future real estate market?
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Old 09-20-2020, 11:58 PM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,920,952 times
Reputation: 6176
My magic 8 ball predicts a 10-30% drop depending on area - but then again, that is my magic 8 ball.

High unemployment and recession usually is not a great combination in Hawaii real estate.

The numbers are currently skewed due to low inventory - now is the best time to refinance while appraisals are high
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Moku Nui, Hawaii
11,053 posts, read 24,042,466 times
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A lot of pressure on the housing market over here on Hawaii Island seems to be driven by mainland folks trying to escape cities and move to houses with yards. Very low inventory and I'd expected the house prices to fall, but this increased migration of mainlanders is keeping the prices up. Also, with the 'work from home' that's now become more widely available, folks are able to move here without worries of finding employment.


The house next door to us is typical. The folks living there were a mixed nationality couple - U.S. & Canadian. They moved to Canada since one of them got a job there and the pandemic was just beginning and they wanted better healthcare so they moved to Canada. Their house sold within a month and a half for a good solid price. Well, at that time, now several months later, it's gone up. The new people moved over, did quarantine and are ecstatic not to be in a small apartment in a city. Software engineer working from home and he's trying to find similar houses for his friends so they can move over here, too.


I don't know if many folks fleeing the pandemic would opt for a condo in a highly urban area, though, which may be why the condos aren't selling very quickly.
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Old 09-21-2020, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Honolulu/DMV Area/NYC
30,642 posts, read 18,249,084 times
Reputation: 34520
I won't be surprised by a small drop, though I'm curious if this will be a universal decrease or if it will primarily impact pricier units/homes

I plan to hold my home for at least another five years, so hopefully the market would have rebounded from any decline by the time I sell.
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Old 09-21-2020, 10:02 AM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,920,952 times
Reputation: 6176
Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident View Post
I won't be surprised by a small drop, though I'm curious if this will be a universal decrease or if it will primarily impact pricier units/homes
The more expensive homes in Hawaii tend to weather price decreases the best. Less expensive homes tend to bear the brunt of price corrections as much as a 40% decrease.

The outer islands tend to get hit the hardest especially the Big Island - on Oahu you’ll see West Oahu get hit hard.
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Old 09-21-2020, 10:39 AM
 
2,095 posts, read 1,560,083 times
Reputation: 2300
condos will have continued weakness to come. There's A LOT of inventory still being constructed all over honolulu with the economy still in the pits.

SFH prices will stay up, at least in the shorter term due to people fleeing covid.

If super low interest rates persist, it will offset some of the negativity.
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Old 09-22-2020, 05:55 AM
 
Location: Honolulu/DMV Area/NYC
30,642 posts, read 18,249,084 times
Reputation: 34520
Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
The more expensive homes in Hawaii tend to weather price decreases the best. Less expensive homes tend to bear the brunt of price corrections as much as a 40% decrease.

The outer islands tend to get hit the hardest especially the Big Island - on Oahu you’ll see West Oahu get hit hard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rya96797 View Post
condos will have continued weakness to come. There's A LOT of inventory still being constructed all over honolulu with the economy still in the pits.

SFH prices will stay up, at least in the shorter term due to people fleeing covid.

If super low interest rates persist, it will offset some of the negativity.

Ah gotcha! I'll be watching the situation closely.
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