Juding by these maps, Western Ohio (minus the cities) has long been the most conservative part. Why? (Columbus: transplants, home)

[Tex?Il?]

So, I've been doing more casual research into Ohio's political geography as of late, as I'm curious as to why its not the bellweather it once was based on the last couple election cycles.

Judging by this set of maps from every presidential election result since the 70s (though I want to point out the results since 2000):



And this map comparing the last two cycles:




And this just showing 2020:



It appears that the western side of the state (minus the bigger cities: Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton to a lesser extent) has been consistently more conservative than the eastern side. Everything else being equal.

It also is important to note that the right wing firebrands JD Vance and Jim Jordan are from this part of the state. John Boehner while not the MAGA republican the other two are, also had his district in the suburbs/exurbs in the counties north of Cincinnati. whereas the Northeast Ohio is where notable Democrats Tim Ryan and Dennis Kucinich were from.

Why is this? I assume Cleveland and Northeast Ohio, which has declined in population as the economy has stagnated has always been more characterized by ethnically diverse unionized steel and auto workers, while Appalachia plateau was characterized by exploited coal miners so only recently went MAGA, while western Ohio being dominated by a lot of flat farmland always had more land-owning farmers that didn't want any government intervening on behalf of them, or had a lot of Appalachian transplants (like JD Vance) of generational German Catholics like Boehner?

Just curious why the west side of the state seemed like its been more consistently republican than further east or along Lake Erie (which is again is more urbanized, diverse, and unionized historically).

[Doughboy1918]

I asked a similar question myself in a thread, regarding why Butler County despite being mostly suburban, sandwiched between two major cities of Cincinnati and Dayton, and even also having a major university (Miami) was so red as well.

Not sure why all of the rest of west-central and northwest Ohio is deeply conservative, but one reason might be because of the historic Dixie Highway that ran all the way through the towns and cities that are situated on the Miami Valley and up north to Toledo. It has now mostly been replaced by I-75. Much of the road was connected to cities in the southeast, which would have inevitably attracted Appalachians during their Great Migration northward during the mid-20th century.

Another possible factor could be because this region historically was always part of Amish country.

[PerryMason614]

Why? Because Republicans want Reaganism, not RINOism, and Trump is captures that modern day Reagan spirit better than anybody else.

We want the federal government cut, their functions sent back to the states. The federal government is an overgrown, out of control cesspool hijacked by activists. Nobody can control it.

Bush 43 was a RINO who gave lip service to Reaganism, that's why he barely squeaked by.

Trump is hitting all the high notes that we want. Strong economy, reduced immigration, clean up elections, shut down Washington except for its essential functions, drill baby drill, promote American industry, etc.

[Tex?Il?]

Originally Posted by PerryMason614

Why? Because Republicans want Reaganism, not RINOism, and Trump is captures that modern day Reagan spirit better than anybody else.

We want the federal government cut, their functions sent back to the states. The federal government is an overgrown, out of control cesspool hijacked by activists. Nobody can control it.

Bush 43 was a RINO who gave lip service to Reaganism, that's why he barely squeaked by.

Trump is hitting all the high notes that we want. Strong economy, reduced immigration, clean up elections, shut down Washington except for its essential functions, drill baby drill, promote American industry, etc.

Didn’t answer the question, that was specifically geographical in nature: Why is the western side of the state so conservative even compared to further east or along the Lake Erie shore. But thanks for sharing your opinion.

[kyle19125]

As with everywhere else in the US it generally reflects upon educational attainment of the average resident. The Cleveland region, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton, Akron-Canton and Youngstown all have large universities with faculty, students, related industries and alumni sprinkled in whereas the more rural areas are much less educated overall.

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by kyle19125

As with everywhere else in the US it generally reflects upon educational attainment of the average resident. The Cleveland region, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton, Akron-Canton and Youngstown all have large universities with faculty, students, related industries and alumni sprinkled in whereas the more rural areas are much less educated overall.

Yet such is also the case with Butler County, Ohio with a major university and a percentage of those with a bachelor's degree or greater being as high as 31% (national average is 34%). But they're a red county through and through.

Canton, Ohio has no major universities by the way, and only has a bachelor's degree attainment rate of 14%. Local politics are very blue though.

Another example also; Iowa is very agricultural. Yet they've always been a swing state.

[Tex?Il?]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Yet such is also the case with Butler County, Ohio with a major university and a percentage of those with a bachelor's degree or greater being as high as 31% (national average is 34%). But they're a red county through and through.

Canton, Ohio has no major universities by the way, and only has a bachelor's degree attainment rate of 14%. Local politics are very blue though.

Another example also; Iowa is very agricultural. Yet they've always been a swing state.

And Wisconsin is also very agricultural, and has been a swing state in the past. And it has only ONE city roughly the size of Ohio's three C's. (Madison is VERY liberal/left leaning, but its comparatively small. Mor the size of Toledo, than Columbus) but the state is solidly blue right now. And have passed laws that are economically left wing that surprises even a lot of coastal liberals.

I assume a city like Canton like the rest of NE Ohio has the union influence, as maybe the population was made of ethnically diverse manufacturing/industrial workers back in the day?

Maybe that might play a big role. Ethnic backgrounds. NE Ohio has a high percentage of people of Italian (maybe some Greek?) and eastern European (Czech/Slovak, Polish, Croatian, Hungarian, etc.) who were generally blue collared, unionized, and were not treated as fully "white" whereas Western Ohio (outside the urban centers) are mostly family farms, Appalachian/Scots-Irish transplants from Kentucky (who are suspicious of anything that smells "elite" government, higher education, even mainline churches) and German-American Catholic families who have been in the region since the 1800s, and have a certain rigidness to their worldview. Just a theory.

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by Tex?Il?

And Wisconsin is also very agricultural, and has been a swing state in the past. And it has only ONE city roughly the size of Ohio's three C's. (Madison is VERY liberal/left leaning, but its comparatively small. Mor the size of Toledo, than Columbus) but the state is solidly blue right now. And have passed laws that are economically left wing that surprises even a lot of coastal liberals.

I assume a city like Canton like the rest of NE Ohio has the union influence, as maybe the population was made of ethnically diverse manufacturing/industrial workers back in the day?

Maybe that might play a big role. Ethnic backgrounds. NE Ohio has a high percentage of people of Italian (maybe some Greek?) and eastern European (Czech/Slovak, Polish, Croatian, Hungarian, etc.) who were generally blue collared, unionized, and were not treated as fully "white" whereas Western Ohio (outside the urban centers) are mostly family farms, Appalachian/Scots-Irish transplants from Kentucky (who are suspicious of anything that smells "elite" government, higher education, even mainline churches) and German-American Catholic families who have been in the region since the 1800s, and have a certain rigidness to their worldview. Just a theory.

Stark County (which Canton is a part of and is the seat) is actually a solid swing county. I can only guess the reason for the politics in that specific town (based on precinct map of voters) are center-left might be due to the large black population because Stark County had significantly less Slavic/Eastern European immigrants and labor unionists than all the rest of Northeast Ohio further north due in part to the fact that it wasn’t originally part of the Western Connecticut Reserve and originally settled by New Englanders as a result.

Not really relevant but an interesting fact nonetheless; Stark County, Ohio is home to what many consider the most famous high school football rivalry in the country; Massillon vs Canton McKinley. Maybe the common cause found in that game among the local communities might explain the moderate politics.

[kyle19125]

Originally Posted by Doughboy1918

Yet such is also the case with Butler County, Ohio with a major university and a percentage of those with a bachelor's degree or greater being as high as 31% (national average is 34%). But they're a red county through and through.

Canton, Ohio has no major universities by the way, and only has a bachelor's degree attainment rate of 14%. Local politics are very blue though.

Another example also; Iowa is very agricultural. Yet they've always been a swing state.

Geography.

You're referring to a county. Cincinnati is the city.

Cincinnati is where the university is located and where the more educated live tend to be, in urban enclaves versus suburban locations.

Canton's population is just 70K and is home of Aultman Hospital a massive regional medical center that employs close to one in five working-age residents. Medical degrees amid varying specialties ranging from nurses to varying specialty techs while not necessarily bachelor's degree recipients, are still well-educated.

[Doughboy1918]

Originally Posted by kyle19125

Geography.

You're referring to a county. Cincinnati is the city.

Cincinnati is where the university is located and where the more educated live tend to be, in urban enclaves versus suburban locations.

Canton's population is just 70K and is home of Aultman Hospital a massive regional medical center that employs close to one in five working-age residents. Medical degrees amid varying specialties ranging from nurses to varying specialty techs while not necessarily bachelor's degree recipients, are still well-educated.

Umm no, I'm referring to Miami University, located in Oxford, Ohio, in Butler County. Despite being majority republican, local bachelor's degree attainment throughout the whole county is 31% which is very close to average. Look.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fa...o,US/PST045222