OC population growth less than 1% last year (Alamo: car registration, insurance)

[SHABAZZ310]

Originally Posted by mbell75

...and housing is significantly cheaper in Dallas vs OC. $221,532 on average for Dallas as opposed to $577,950 on average for OC. This wasn't about household incomes to begin with. My point still stands. If job growth and low unemployment rates were what drove up housing costs, Dallas would be more expensive than OC. It had double the job growth and the same 4.6% unemployment rate, yet its MUCH cheaper to live there. As I said originally, we pay the premium to live here because of an ocean, thats it.

Dude, housing is less expensive in Dallas than it is in OC for a reason! It’s less desirable to live there. As to your point about job growth and low unemployment rates driving up housing cost, this is only part of the story in my opinion. Yes, these two scenarios are driving up housing cost, but there is a Socal premium (location, location, location), higher salaries in SoCal, more amenities, and a diversified economy.

[dexter14]

Originally Posted by SHABAZZ310

Dude, housing is less expensive in Dallas than it is in OC for a reason! It’s less desirable to live there. As to your point about job growth and low unemployment rates driving up housing cost, this is only part of the story in my opinion. Yes, these two scenarios are driving up housing cost, but there is a Socal premium (location, location, location), higher salaries in SoCal, more amenities, and a diversified economy.

...like I said, we pay a premium to live here because of the Pacific Ocean, thats it.

[SHABAZZ310]

Originally Posted by mbell75

...like I said, we pay a premium to live here because of the Pacific Ocean, thats it.

You're only partially correct. There is a premium because of the Pacific Ocean, but that isn't it. There's much more to the story like I mentioned previously.

[blam]

You can't just count the jobs. Jobs in Dallas/Austin/Houston do not equal jobs in coastal California in terms of salary.

[lookintomove15]

People getting the hell out of OC!!

[NickofDiamonds]

It seems that Orange County may have reached the point of being overpopulated and now that water is going to be a major issue in reaching the "Misery level" on the scale of enjoying life, I imagine that a lot of people will be looking to enjoy the American dream elsewhere where they don't have to pretend to be enjoying it.
I believe this may be the breaking point in the history of California and not the "big one" that everyone thought would cause it.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by LuvSouthOC

Ok, well let's break this down. My own town is nearly completely built out as are other ones. Almost all new construction is now tear down. I don't see the town unable to balance its checkbook. At the county level there could be impacts though and I would love for you to illuminate me on what those are, seriously. I am not being sarcastic.

Counties are raising sales tax amounts now. Intheory income and expenses for a County should be close to inflation, if no growth occurs. But Gov't costs always go up for employees, new requirements coming through, like one on storm water permits for businesses now, infrastructure needs and a host of other costs, say a new school as an old one becomes unusable any longer. Look at your County's expenses over the last 20 years and imagine what it would be like with no growth to cover the costs. No significantly higher revenue from property tax due to prop 13 (a very good idea it was and is). Remember the Gov't employees are union controlled and wages always go up and who pays that???

[floridarebel]

It's pretty incredible that the county has grown as much as it has considering at how small the county is land wise. Between 1950 and 2000, the population exploded by ten fold from 216,224 to 2,846,289. In the years from 1960 to 1970 alone, the county added 70,000 annually. The growth continued at an average rate of 40,000-60,000 in the following years. That's remarkable, especially since the county only has 791 sq miles of land. Judging by Google Maps, it's apparent the county has used up almost every little bit of land it has. It's a good thing that the growth is slowing down. Where are the additional homes, schools, offices, medical centers, roads/highways etc all going to be built when there's no more room?

My guess is that the growth is going to start spreading into San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, especially since these counties are huge and have lots of undeveloped land to build on.

[payutenyodagimas]

Originally Posted by mbell75

You claimed in your post that the reason housing was so expensive here in OC was due to job growth, low unemployment rate and high rate of pay. Not true at all. The DFW metro created almost three times as many jobs as OC, has the same unemployment rate and wages aren't too far behind. So if that were the case, Dallas would be just as expensive as OC, its not even close.

but your climate is like Saudi Arabia ?

[bowneline]

Originally Posted by bowneline

It's not that they don't want to, its just that because many people consider it a very nice place to live and because the economic climate is such that it has high wages and plenty of jobs, the housing is too expensive for most people to move here.

Believe me, if you could buy a decent house here for $250,000 and get a nice 2 bedroom apartment for $1000 a month, it would be boom-time for population growth. But, such cheap prices do not happen in places like OC where, right now, things are looking very strong economically: 51,000 jobs created in the past year, 4.6% unemployment rate, very high wages http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$pds.pdf

This is a recipe for expensive housing, which is a recipe for slow population growth.

Originally Posted by mbell75

You claimed in your post that the reason housing was so expensive here in OC was due to job growth, low unemployment rate and high rate of pay. Not true at all. The DFW metro created almost three times as many jobs as OC, has the same unemployment rate and wages aren't too far behind. So if that were the case, Dallas would be just as expensive as OC, its not even close.

I did not claim that housing prices were simply a matter of wages, unemployment and job growth -- although those factors place a big role.

I also claimed that a big factor was that people consider OC to be a great place to live (see above). I don't think its controversial to say that people generally would prefer to live in OC, as opposed to Dallas. In fact, you helped make my point by citing the fact that unemployment, job growth and wages are also all strong in Dallas. If those three factors are all somewhat similar in both cities, the remaining factor that could arguably explain the why a house cost more than twice as much in OC as it does in Dallas is the fact that there is much more demand to live in OC -- more people would prefer to live in OC than in Dallas.

I don't doubt that there are a relatively small segment of people that feel more politically at home in a red state like Texas, or lose sleep at night being troubled by the more heavy handed regulatory scheme in California, relative to Texas, and, as result, see Dallas and Texas as a more appeal place to live than OC. But, that is probably a small group of people, certainly not enough to move the needle on housing prices in either area, or affect overall emigration and immigration numbers. Rather, I think those numbers are driven more by housing prices and cost of living. Most people just can't afford to move to OC, and many people here see it as cheaper elsewhere and move to be able to get established financially.

I also disagree with the fact that OC housing premiums are a result only if it being near the ocean. That is a factor, for sure, but only one of many. I don't doubt that Laguna Beach is popular in large part because it is near the ocean. But, I don't think people moving to Anaheim, Fullerton or Lake Forest move there and cite a major reason is that it is near the ocean.