Will you ride SunRail?

[WithDisp]

Originally Posted by IAm_FloridaBorn

This is hoping the Orlando extension of Brightline actually comes to fruition. Miami Has Tri-Rail. Not sure why they need a High Speed Rail to West Palm. Im no transit expert but it seems they need to focus on getting Orlando connected rather than just talking.

I'm absolutely willing to be wrong- but I think Brightline will fold fairly quickly after opening.

It's competing against a public transit rail that already isn't doing well, and will make it to Orlando in a longer time than it takes to fly for fare that are higher than airfare. Like most HSR they bank of the 'experience' beating the airlines, but if the FAA lobbies and enforces TSA standards for HSR, then you're back at square one.


You have one rail line that profits in all of the united states in some of the richest cities with a concentration of 20 mill, and you really are to believe that a private company can come in and replicate any fiscal progress with a Metro of 5 million into cities without walkable cores.

I just can't wrap my head around WHO is possibly financing this thing.
Just dunno.
Even Fortress Capital Can

[IAm_FloridaBorn]

Originally Posted by WithDisp

I'm absolutely willing to be wrong- but I think Brightline will fold fairly quickly after opening.

It's competing against a public transit rail that already isn't doing well, and will make it to Orlando in a longer time than it takes to fly for fare that are higher than airfare. Like most HSR they bank of the 'experience' beating the airlines, but if the FAA lobbies and enforces TSA standards for HSR, then you're back at square one.


You have one rail line that profits in all of the united states in some of the richest cities with a concentration of 20 mill, and you really are to believe that a private company can come in and replicate any fiscal progress with a Metro of 5 million into cities without walkable cores.

I just can't wrap my head around WHO is possibly financing this thing.
Just dunno.
Even Fortress Capital Can

Excellent points.

It takes 3 hours to drive to the Miami area (Maybe 4 dependng on te person)

Not sure why a train traveling at faster speeds would take the same amount of time.

If one takes the train from Miami to Orlando they are getting off at the Airport (In the middle of no where) with no train connection into the city.
So you may be right.

[0nyxStation]

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/...-to-the-public

4 new stations are now online. I wonder what TOD growth will eventually happen around these stations.

Orlando International Airport

The intermodal terminal facility at the airport seems to be complete, Brightline is just building the tracks. I am hearing Brightline will eventually go to Tampa Bay. That would be really nice. A Brightline station in Tampa Bay would easily make the Orlando stop the heart of the line, with Miami still remaining the head.

Has anyone been to any of the new Sunrail stops?

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by 0nyxStation

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/...-to-the-public

4 new stations are now online. I wonder what TOD growth will eventually happen around these stations.

Orlando International Airport

The intermodal terminal facility at the airport seems to be complete, Brightline is just building the tracks. I am hearing Brightline will eventually go to Tampa Bay. That would be really nice. A Brightline station in Tampa Bay would easily make the Orlando stop the heart of the line, with Miami still remaining the head.

Has anyone been to any of the new Sunrail stops?

Yeah, I've been to the new stops. The one in Kissimmee is right in the middle of town.
I personally like the Sunrail, and really hope they continue to build around it.
I take it from work (downtown) to Winter Park all the time for breakfast/lunch/dinner Very convenient for things like that.

[drive carephilly]

This post is a great example of the Dunning-Kruger effect at work.

Originally Posted by WithDisp

I'm absolutely willing to be wrong- but I think Brightline will fold fairly quickly after opening.

Still going, still building, still studying expansion. I think the incredulity here stems from a lack of understanding of how transportation works and more importantly the interplay between transportation infrastructure and real estate values.

It's competing against a public transit rail that already isn't doing well,

Amtrak is "public transit" in the way that American Airlines is "public transit." The cost recovery is low because Florida is only served by long distance trains - long distance trains that are slow and usually late because Amtrak doesn't own the ROW. Moreover, Congress never fines the freight companies for holding up passenger trains even though there's a schedule of fines for it.

and will make it to Orlando in a longer time than it takes to fly

Well, if I want to get from downtown Miami to downtown Orlando it's going to take at least 3 hours if I fly. Drive to the airport, do the security dance, board, taxi, fly, deplane, drive to downtown. That trip might take me 3.5 hours on a train but since Brightline owns the tracks, does its own dispatching, and isn't delayed by weather I know the service is more reliable. And I don't have to undress to get through security. And once I sit in my seat I can open my laptop and work uninterrupted for 3 hours. No one will ask me to "put your device away and put up your tray table." I can get up and walk around on a train and not to have to worry about a fasten seatbelt sign.

More importantly, a rail line isn't like a flight. A train doesn't go from Miami to Orlando without stopping. People get on and off in West Palm, in Melbourne, and places in between. Sure, some people will make the trip from one end to the other, but most of the passengers will be getting on or off at some intermediate station.

for fare that are higher than airfare.

No, the fares are lower than or similar to airfare and definitely lower if you're booking last minute.

Like most HSR they bank of the 'experience' beating the airlines, but if the FAA lobbies and enforces TSA standards for HSR, then you're back at square one.

The threat on a train will never be the same as on a plane. Trains can't rapidly depressurize or fall out of the sky. So even when TSA does perform security theater at busy train stations like Penn or 30th St. it doesn't add nearly as much time as the screening at an airport. More importantly, train passengers go straight from screening to the boarding platform. Boarding a train is done at all of the doors on that train and typically takes less than 5 minutes. A plane boards from one door (2 if you're really lucky to be at a small airport like Long Beach) and combined with taxi can take 30-45 minutes.

You have one rail line that profits in all of the united states in some of the richest cities with a concentration of 20 mill

There are actually 5 profitable routes - at least they're profitable operationally. There's really no such thing as profitable transportation. All of it is subsidized directly or indirectly. But those profitable Amtrak routes are those where Amtrak owns some or all of the route and can run fast service without freight interference. In other words, the trains are fast and reliable so people use them. They're also not long distance routes where the trains take 20-72 hours to finish their route. IOW, those profitable Amtrak routes are just like the Brightline.

and you really are to believe that a private company can come in and replicate any fiscal progress with a Metro of 5 million into cities without walkable cores.

A walkable core has zip to do with travel demand.

I just can't wrap my head around WHO is possibly financing this thing.
Just dunno.
Even Fortress Capital Can

People who know the first thing about real estate :-)

[WithDisp]

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

This post is a great example of the Dunning-Kruger effect at work.

Well, if I want to get from downtown Miami to downtown Orlando it's going to take at least 3 hours if I fly. Drive to the airport, do the security dance, board, taxi, fly, deplane, drive to downtown. That trip might take me 3.5 hours on a train but since Brightline owns the tracks, does its own dispatching, and isn't delayed by weather I know the service is more reliable. And I don't have to undress to get through security. And once I sit in my seat I can open my laptop and work uninterrupted for 3 hours. No one will ask me to "put your device away and put up your tray table." I can get up and walk around on a train and not to have to worry about a fasten seatbelt sign.

Brightline does not go to Orlando's Downtown. You'd still have to connect- given SunRail possibly existing at the Intermodal that's still a 30 minute trip from when the additional train arrives.

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

No, the fares are lower than or similar to airfare and definitely lower if you're booking last minute.

No actual fares to maintain stability of the company have been declared. Brightline rates in South Florida now are unsustainable over a long term. They are subsidized to generate use, which is very much understandable given the newness of the product.

If the fares are comparable to Acela, they will be higher than flights and much higher than buses.
The only difference is Acela gets you between city centers faster than any other route of travel. Brightline under its current proposal cannot.

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

The threat on a train will never be the same as on a plane.

The threat of the train industry to the plane industry is what one needs to be weary of here.
I don't think TSA should be on either... but the Union and their job market may disagree with me.
Heaven forbid too, and it's still a very unlikely situation- but trains derail far more than plane related tragedy.

Originally Posted by drive carephilly

A walkable core has zip to do with travel demand & People who know the first thing about real estate :-)

This seems to be contradictory. 100% of the value of Brightline is in the land near their stations in South Florida. The value of the real estate is because of it's use as both an Urban Center and the ability to increase density.

The Orlando stop has little to do to help out Brightline in South Florida. They also won't own land in Central Florida, nor is there any development ability in the area directly surrounding MCO.

With longstanding future plans to connect JAX and Tampa, they may be able to thrive as a railroad monopoly here in Florida. I think Orlando to Tampa in 45 minutes would be wildly successful with a stop in Lakeland.

Unless Brightline is holding some cards regarding midway stops with major development in Cocoa or along the way- the Orlando stop holds little purpose for them.

I'll stand by what I say questioning their ability to turn profit and thus operate that portion of the line. I wish them well, but if they default on their bonds and ask for public support or dismal, I would hope FECI hangs for it.