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58% of Americans now see Trump and his violent cult following as a threat to the foundations of the country's democracy. Voters are waking up to the danger of Trump style narcissistic neofascism, including 25% of Republicans (including myself in that number...). Candidates hand picked and endorsed by Trump are headed for a bloodbath in November. This is a primary driver of the number of Republican leaders jumping ship for Shapiro (and Fetterman) instead of Trump's candidates. The party needs to fully reject everything Trump in order to get itself (and the country) back on track.
Can't +1 you via the usual methods, so I'll do it publicly here.
It's fine that you don't agree with me but let the right candidate or the candidate with the most votes win the gubernatorial and senatorial campaign here and I'd rather not hear people cry on this thread if the "wrong" candidate wins as if it's the end of the world.
While I certainly hope that Fetterman wins, Oz pulling off a victory would not be the end of the world. There are 100 U.S. Senators, and he would replace a far-right Republican. No matter how hard Oz tries to pander to the right, I can’t see him being worse than Toomey.
Mastriano, on the other hand, would have a GOP-dominated General Assembly locked and loaded and could do tons of damage incredibly quickly. A woman’s right to choose will be the first thing on the chopping block.
Out-migration for PA really isn't even that bad. It's one of the more balanced states for domestic migration. IIRC, redder Ohio and much redder West Virginia perform worse on out-migration than more purple PA.
The politicization of migration trends is incredibly obnoxious and annoying. It's FAR more nuanced than the moronic "hot takes" alleged by conservatives of the "declining" blue states.
Meanwhile, blue states are overwhelmingly wealthier, better-educated, and have much better economic and health outcomes than most red states could ever dream about. That's not a coincidence.
Not to mention, if TX and FL are so wonderful, why do they perform so poorly on many quality-of-life metrics?
Lol, seriously. And people neglect to mention Colorado, Washington State, Massachusetts, purple-ish Arizona, etc. when they talk about states with substantial growth trends. They talk as if Florida and Texas are the only states growing. It's just silliness.
While I certainly hope that Fetterman wins, Oz pulling off a victory would not be the end of the world. There are 100 U.S. Senators, and he would replace a far-right Republican. No matter how hard Oz tries to pander to the right, I can’t see him being worse than Toomey.
Mastriano, on the other hand, would have a GOP-dominated General Assembly locked and loaded and could do tons of damage incredibly quickly. A woman’s right to choose will be the first thing on the chopping block.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. In a purple state I would not be surprised to see Oz (right-of-center candidate for U.S. Senate) and Shapiro (left-of-center candidate for governor) both win. Some of you in SEPA (not you in particular) live in this bubble where you think PA is bluer than it truly is, but outside of SEPA and Allegheny County the majority of the state is either deep red or leans red. About half the state DOES live outside of SEPA or Allegheny County. Couple this with the fact that most Republicans seem to vote religiously while many Democrats are lazy and only vote when they feel inspired or compelled to do so (why can't we have 2008/Obama Democratic turnout numbers ALL THE TIME?).
Mastriano would be dangerous for women, the LGBTQQIA+ community, and other historically-suppressed groups. If Mastriano wins and challenges/overturns same-sex marriage in PA, then my fiancé and I will be relocating to Rochester, New York.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. In a purple state I would not be surprised to see Oz (right-of-center candidate for U.S. Senate) and Shapiro (left-of-center candidate for governor) both win. Some of you in SEPA (not you in particular) live in this bubble where you think PA is bluer than it truly is, but outside of SEPA and Allegheny County the majority of the state is either deep red or leans red. About half the state DOES live outside of SEPA or Allegheny County. Couple this with the fact that most Republicans seem to vote religiously while many Democrats are lazy and only vote when they feel inspired or compelled to do so (why can't we have 2008/Obama Democratic turnout numbers ALL THE TIME?).
Mastriano would be dangerous for women, the LGBTQQIA+ community, and other historically-suppressed groups. If Mastriano wins and challenges/overturns same-sex marriage in PA, then my fiancé and I will be relocating to Rochester, New York.
Absolutely. The polls nominally lean Fetterman/Shapiro, but they’re not far outside the statistical margin of error.
I can’t blame you for wanting to relocate if Mastriano wins and does, well, exactly what he has promised to do, and which our GOP-dominated legislature would happily deliver him on a silver platter. We might also have to move out-of-state if the worst comes to fruition. Once what you and I would consider human rights are axed, it could easily be decades before they’re restored.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. In a purple state I would not be surprised to see Oz (right-of-center candidate for U.S. Senate) and Shapiro (left-of-center candidate for governor) both win. Some of you in SEPA (not you in particular) live in this bubble where you think PA is bluer than it truly is, but outside of SEPA and Allegheny County the majority of the state is either deep red or leans red. About half the state DOES live outside of SEPA or Allegheny County. Couple this with the fact that most Republicans seem to vote religiously while many Democrats are lazy and only vote when they feel inspired or compelled to do so (why can't we have 2008/Obama Democratic turnout numbers ALL THE TIME?).
I completely understand your point and would not disagree one bit.
But I would caveat that by saying that I truly do believe 2016 really was a huge awakening to a lot of disengaged or less-voting-prone Democrats and non-MAGA independents, especially younger voters. There was such a false sense of security that someone like that could never get elected. Those days are clearly over.
With the fall of Roe and January 6th, the consequences empowering politicians like Trump and his ilk have never been more palpable, and it will only become even more obvious leading up to November 8th.
While I certainly hope that Fetterman wins, Oz pulling off a victory would not be the end of the world. There are 100 U.S. Senators, and he would replace a far-right Republican. No matter how hard Oz tries to pander to the right, I can’t see him being worse than Toomey.
Mastriano, on the other hand, would have a GOP-dominated General Assembly locked and loaded and could do tons of damage incredibly quickly. A woman’s right to choose will be the first thing on the chopping block.
Just as bad: Mastriano and the General Assembly would also rewrite the election laws so that the popular vote could be ignored in a Presidential election if it doesn't go the way they prefer. (And I'd assume they'd also play hob with statewide elections.)
I completely understand your point and would not disagree one bit.
But I would caveat that by saying that I truly do believe 2016 really was a huge awakening to a lot of disengaged or less-voting-prone Democrats and non-MAGA independents, especially younger voters. There was such a false sense of security that someone like that could never get elected. Those days are clearly over.
With the fall of Roe and January 6th, the consequences empowering politicians like Trump and his ilk have never been more palpable, and it will only become even more obvious leading up to November 8th.
I hope that is true, but the fact is in 2020, there was a surge in turnout for both Democrats and Trump. Democrats just had a bigger surge. There are many electrified, and often angry, voters on both sides. But yes, I do think Dobbs and the new Supreme Court will motivate many Democratic voters.
But to SCR's point, I don't really foresee Oz winning. It is possible, but I really find this to be an uneven matchup. Fetterman really embodies that blue-collar, union-loving Pennsylvanian. Oz is really selling the out-of-touch, elitist carpetbagger vibe. I foresee a relatively high Trump(2020)-Fetterman turnout, esp. in Western PA. At the least, more of the Trump voters will sit out than will Biden voters. I could see some substantial showing of Shapiro-Oz voters in Suburban SEPA... maybe.
SCR, I know you've said you think SEPA residents overestimate our power / the Democratic tilt of Pennsylvania, but I don't know if that is true. From most conversations I remember with people about state politics, it seems most people are aware of how we are counterbalanced by rural Pennsylvania. What I do hear, which I dislike, is people disparaging "Pennsyltucky." I dislike it as much as I dislike when people in rural PA do it to Philadelphia. I wish there were more cross-cultural solidarity, since the majority of us middle-class and middle-class-aspiring people have more in common than is realized.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. In a purple state I would not be surprised to see Oz (right-of-center candidate for U.S. Senate) and Shapiro (left-of-center candidate for governor) both win. Some of you in SEPA (not you in particular) live in this bubble where you think PA is bluer than it truly is, but outside of SEPA and Allegheny County the majority of the state is either deep red or leans red. About half the state DOES live outside of SEPA or Allegheny County. Couple this with the fact that most Republicans seem to vote religiously while many Democrats are lazy and only vote when they feel inspired or compelled to do so (why can't we have 2008/Obama Democratic turnout numbers ALL THE TIME?).
Mastriano would be dangerous for women, the LGBTQQIA+ community, and other historically-suppressed groups. If Mastriano wins and challenges/overturns same-sex marriage in PA, then my fiancé and I will be relocating to Rochester, New York.
There were many parts of the state that usually voted Democrat before the 2016 election. Look at the voting histories of counties such as Erie, Fayette, Indiana, Centre, Cambria, and Luzerne before 2016. John Murtha was a Democrat who represented Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives from 1974 until his death in 2010. That district changed over time but included parts of Cambria, Somerset, Indiana, Westmoreland, Greene, Allegheny, Beaver, and Fayette counties. In the 2006 election, Murtha was re-elected with 61% of the vote.
I hope that is true, but the fact is in 2020, there was a surge in turnout for both Democrats and Trump. Democrats just had a bigger surge. There are many electrified, and often angry, voters on both sides. But yes, I do think Dobbs and the new Supreme Court will motivate many Democratic voters.
But to SCR's point, I don't really foresee Oz winning. It is possible, but I really find this to be an uneven matchup. Fetterman really embodies that blue-collar, union-loving Pennsylvanian. Oz is really selling the out-of-touch, elitist carpetbagger vibe. I foresee a relatively high Trump(2020)-Fetterman turnout, esp. in Western PA. At the least, more of the Trump voters will sit out than will Biden voters. I could see some substantial showing of Shapiro-Oz voters in Suburban SEPA... maybe.
SCR, I know you've said you think SEPA residents overestimate our power / the Democratic tilt of Pennsylvania, but I don't know if that is true. From most conversations I remember with people about state politics, it seems most people are aware of how we are counterbalanced by rural Pennsylvania. What I do hear, which I dislike, is people disparaging "Pennsyltucky." I dislike it as much as I dislike when people in rural PA do it to Philadelphia. I wish there were more cross-cultural solidarity, since the majority of us middle-class and middle-class-aspiring people have more in common than is realized.
The one caveat is that Fetterman is going to have to show himself for the debate and not look like an incoherent stroke patient. That really is (or should be) a prerequisite for the job. He agreed to one debate in October, so that is his chance to close the deal.
As for Oz-Shapiro, that will only happen if Fetterman struggles thinking on his feet in the debate. If Fetterman looks like normal like he's totally recovered, the suburbanites don't have any sort of attachment TO Oz. He's a celebrity c0nman grifter endorsed by the ultimate celebrity c0nman grifter turned politician that they just rejected en masse. The only votes he is going to get are the straight ticket partisans on the GOP side. Mastriano is definitely DOA in SEPA, and there aren't enough votes in Pennsyltucky to make up for it.
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