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On a given drawing, even if 292,000,000 people bet, what is the chance that all possible combinations have been selected ?
I assume that the quick pick gives a different selection every time, so that 292,000,000 quick picks would have every combination picked once and only once. I don't know how, or if, they do that, but it would be simple with modern computers.
It was said that some ten thousand people picked 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the first Virginia Lottery drawing. If you have to select your own numbers, I would recommend avoiding that sequence.
I assume that the quick pick gives a different selection every time, so that 292,000,000 quick picks would have every combination picked once and only once. I don't know how, or if, they do that, but it would be simple with modern computers.
It was said that some ten thousand people picked 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the first Virginia Lottery drawing. If you have to select your own numbers, I would recommend avoiding that sequence.
Quick picks are completely random. 292 million picks and all could conceivably be the exact same combination of numbers. Highly unlikely, but possible.
I assume that the quick pick gives a different selection every time, so that 292,000,000 quick picks would have every combination picked once and only once. I don't know how, or if, they do that, but it would be simple with modern computers.
It was said that some ten thousand people picked 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the first Virginia Lottery drawing. If you have to select your own numbers, I would recommend avoiding that sequence.
None of us is privy to the MUSL algorithms, so we are guessing. Good programming of truly random selections is a challenge. The ones we worked on a half century ago worked off of the instantaneous value of a clock or time signal. We were picking small numbers. There should be better ways today. In this case the software selects 1 out of a field of 292 million. I'd try to use some sort of pachinko model, like the game show "The Wall" only with 292 million buckets. That would make each selection independant, so duplicates could occur.
So it's not a programming issue, it's a policy issue. Should a quick pick of an already selected QUICK PICK be allowed? It could be a programming issue if speed of picking is a problem vs rate of sales of tickets. If demand is high the algorithm must be quick.
OTOH, the quick pick could work by picking 5 random numbers and one powerball at random. That would be, so to speak a quick pick. That could even be done at the point of sale then sent back to the computer at headquarters.
Last edited by Crashj007; 08-22-2017 at 07:54 PM..
Reason: OTOH
I assume that the quick pick gives a different selection every time, so that 292,000,000 quick picks would have every combination picked once and only once. I don't know how, or if, they do that, but it would be simple with modern computers.
It was said that some ten thousand people picked 1,2,3,4,5,6 in the first Virginia Lottery drawing. If you have to select your own numbers, I would recommend avoiding that sequence.
I don't think so, I think it just picks a random number. If it gave a unique different combination for every Quick Pick (until every number combination was played), jackpots wouldn't get very large.
If the quick pick were completely random, then having the selections all different would be just as probable as having the selections all the same -- the two ends of the curve. The probability of a selection matching a previous one would be N/X, where N is the number of the X possible combinations already picked. So the question is, what is a typical N/X? Since it depends to an extent on the size of the jackpot, I don't see any way to estimate it. However, my impression is that there are too many single winners for the quick picks to be independent of the combinations already picked.
In order to prevent multiple quick picks of the same sequence, using 1980's computers, you would assign the quick picks in numeric order and keep a central register of the highest one assigned so far. Today you would simply keep an array of 292,000,000 bits and reject pseudo-random picks until you found one not yet assigned.
As many sales outlets as there are (tens of thousands?) I suspect the quick pick number is generated at the terminal and reported back to a central computer in the interest of speed. A player selected number is scanned and reported back to mama.
So there would be no way on ensuring there were no duplicate Quick PIcs.
If the quick pick were completely random, then having the selections all different would be just as probable as having the selections all the same -- the two ends of the curve. The probability of a selection matching a previous one would be N/X, where N is the number of the X possible combinations already picked. So the question is, what is a typical N/X? Since it depends to an extent on the size of the jackpot, I don't see any way to estimate it. However, my impression is that there are too many single winners for the quick picks to be independent of the combinations already picked.
In order to prevent multiple quick picks of the same sequence, using 1980's computers, you would assign the quick picks in numeric order and keep a central register of the highest one assigned so far. Today you would simply keep an array of 292,000,000 bits and reject pseudo-random picks until you found one not yet assigned.
I researched this with Powerball back in the late 90's. Unless things have changed, quick picks are completely random, each pick is a unique event, and there is nothing to prevent duplicate picks. 500,000,000 (or 1,000,000,000, or any other number) picks could all be exactly the same.
If quick picks weren't random a winner would hit with greater frequency in these larger drawings I believe. I'd bet they are random as that would be better for the lottery operator
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