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I was in Japan a couple of years ago and they had technology in fast food restaurants that shrunk the workforce by half... and that was clearly just the beginning.
What new technologies do you see coming that will hasten this trend?
And what should our response, if anything, be?
I'd be interested in hearing stories and opinions that explore the trends, technologies, and ideas that are headed our way, how soon they will be felt, and what impacts they will produce.
I read a lot of Science Fiction. There are two schools of thought regarding robotics. The 50's and 60's authors pretty much thought robots were going to be a boon to civilization making life easier for everyone. We would just peruse leisure activities with out a care in the world.
Beginning in the late 60's, dystopian futures began to be more common. Robots are going to take over our jobs, and we will suffer the consequences. It seems that the reality is a bit of both. Robots have certainly made life easier, but there is a cost when humans are displaced simply for the bottom line. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
I think you made the same mistake as the last thread, using "robotics" instead of a more current or accurate term. The word sends everyone down the mechanical-man, science-fiction road and there's an instant three-way division of participation.
But yes, along with the major evolution of limited-capability AI replacing the first tiers of desk workers, which will really upend our understanding of employment, the "lower level" of automation and robotics continues to develop, taking on more and more jobs that require at least sophisticated programming, if not rudimentary AI. Garment cutting and most assembly sewing could be done by "robots" now, and they will be even cheaper than Bangladeshi children. Finish sewing might take a while longer.
Most of us in America have almost no idea of what has already happened with manufacturing. We know a high percentage of goods are manufactured overseas. We seem to have some absurd ideas about why that happened and the nature of manufacturing in the rest of the world. We can picture families sitting in a dirt floored hut working long hours for no pay. It is way past time to face what has actually occurred. Factories in China and most of Asia are highly sophisticated and highly robotic. China leads the world in making and implementing the robotic equipment and highly automated factories.
So I would think that China has a decreasing demand for workers. That is not at all the case. Low cost production has just meant more demand for the same and new products. The population of China cannot keep up and China long since gave up the one child per family program. There is more and more demand for workers and a huge growth in the size of the relatively wealthy middle class.
Most of us in America have almost no idea of what has already happened with manufacturing.
I think most adults in the US whose worldview extends past their block have a pretty good idea of what's happened, just not a grasp of the reasons why. Most probably believe "all the jobs went overseas" - which is mostly true - and that "we can bring them back" - which is almost wholly false.
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So I would think that China has a decreasing demand for workers.
The world has a decreasing demand for workers. When automation starts displacing piece workers in fourth-world nations, the process is no longer reversible.
What we have is a globe of whirlwind change that's been going on for at least 30 years, and how we interpret it (or, more precisely, how it's been interpreted for us) has been wrong almost from the start. We are just now starting to realize what the change has actually been, and that all the campaign speeches in the world won't bring back 1955. The changes of the last 30-40 years, as traditional jobs have eroded all around us, have been masked by the busy-bee activity of those jobs going to lower-efficiency production overseas, and by the rise of "service" jobs here. As automation begins to erode jobs in those worker-ant countries, and AI is poised to start replacing the lower tiers of desk work... we're all about to learn the base truth about all this change: jobs are declining globally, and are not coming back.
Most of us in America have almost no idea of what has already happened with manufacturing. We know a high percentage of goods are manufactured overseas. We seem to have some absurd ideas about why that happened and the nature of manufacturing in the rest of the world. We can picture families sitting in a dirt floored hut working long hours for no pay. It is way past time to face what has actually occurred. Factories in China and most of Asia are highly sophisticated and highly robotic. China leads the world in making and implementing the robotic equipment and highly automated factories.
So I would think that China has a decreasing demand for workers. That is not at all the case. Low cost production has just meant more demand for the same and new products. The population of China cannot keep up and China long since gave up the one child per family program. There is more and more demand for workers and a huge growth in the size of the relatively wealthy middle class.
The company i work for has their pump casting made in one of the most modern cnc facilities around in china.
The work is very precise and of very high quality. We assemble . Design ,test and qc right here in long island
and ohio supporting 320 american jobs
We are also a very big distributor of factory automation controls and robotic equipment. Our customers are installers , industrials and oem manufacturers.
The company is ownd by one man. I started with them more than 20 years ago with 8 employees.. today the company did 100 million and has 320 employees .
OUr suppliers ,vendors and support business grew like wise as our growth had them expanding like crazy too to meet our needs.
The amount of jobs created through the chain of supply and distribution has been crazy just from us . Even ups had to hire more people. Our shipping warehouse can fill a ups truck daily . Siemens had to open and
staff a local field office to support us
Our competitors have seen the same growth with similar gowth in their supply chain and distribution network. In july a huge electrical wholesaler in the finger lake region in ny went bust. They were going to layoff 120 employees . We took them over preserving 108 of the 120 jobs
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-19-2018 at 11:45 AM..
I had hoped that more people would work LESS hours, as we may soon be able to provide for the basic, physical needs of almost everyone soon. That hasn't happened and I'm not holding my breath.
The issue that may be more problematic is the loss of status that results from the loss of independence gained thru meaningful work. When I think of how well, in terms of material goods, the lowest class Americans live today, compared to the rest of the world and historically, yet how unhappy so many are, I suspect the problem is deeper than simply 'stuff'.
The company is ownd by one man. I started with them more than 20 years ago with 8 employees.. today the company did 100 million and has 320 employees .
It's hard to do even though you've posted a lot of information, but there is a difference between actual growth of jobs and business - in an overall sense - and job rearrangement.
Typically, mechanical trades grow more or less with area population, with some discount for both efficiency/automation changes and longer-lasting equipment... but that aside, growth of one company probably means at least some shrinkage from others. Local competition goes out of business or loses trade, regional companies expand and displace smaller ones, national companies do the same.
It's just a variation of the "go where the jobs are" argument - one city might be moribund and losing workers by the trainload while another can't get enough, but in the overall, the increase in jobs is somewhere between zero and a percentage of the boom.
And I contend that's a lot of what's been going on for the last few decades - a lot of hype, a lot of frantic rearrangement, a lot of jobs going from middling-efficiency US factories and plants to (originally) low-efficiency but very-low-cost equivalents in worker-ant countries... but now the slow march of robotics and automation and finally AI is bringing efficiency of scale and reduction of workforce everywhere. And the masking effects of all the churn and localized booms (along with boom in service jobs) are finally starting to wear thin.
I had hoped that more people would work LESS hours, as we may soon be able to provide for the basic, physical needs of almost everyone soon. That hasn't happened and I'm not holding my breath.
You have to take it further. "Share the work" and partial subsidies are what might seem an easy step, but won't really fix anything. We have to set our sights on a national (and eventually global) economy that does not rest on self-supporting workers. There may be many steps to that goal, including a period of more workers per job slot and rising individual support, but it's important not to make that a goal, or even a long-term holding action - just a stretch of the road on the way to the real goal.
Quietude , At lot of that is true. A lot of our growth has been taking over our competitors
When you deal wholesale, credit is supplied by the wholsaler . Typically they get in to cash flow crunches and suppliers cut them off . We have everyone come work for us , with sales people come the customer base so a lot of failed companies had their employees slide over . So while there is no job created difference in that case there is a job preserved as well as considerable increases in possible compensation because the company offers so much to sell.
Many in sales go on to be sales engineers and work on commission and now earn multiple 6 figure salaries. The best part is so many have no degrees and make lots of money .
Not only do i not have a degree , and was self taught and became a motor control and vfd specialist but i retired and teach motor controls and variable frequency drives one day a week to newbees. Many who have no degrees but are getting a good technical back ground enabling them to make more in sales than they ever could
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-19-2018 at 01:15 PM..
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