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Old 05-10-2019, 06:17 AM
 
Location: Censorshipville...
4,437 posts, read 8,133,641 times
Reputation: 5021

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I stumbled upon this blog post and thought folks here may enjoy running their numbers through it:

https://www.keepthrifty.com/2017/01/...ement-freedom/

I put in my numbers and I'm on the brink of hitting my freedom date in 7/2019, with the assumption of retiring at 65. Since I want to retire at 51, I have been really funneling money into my brokerage and retirement accounts. I've also been working to pay down the house and minimize debt as much as possible. The calculator supports my own calculations that I'll be able to do it by the time I'm 51. Hopefully the numbers will work out

One thing it doesn't factor in is an outside pension that I'll be eligible for. I winged it by reducing my expected retirement expenses to compensate for the pension.
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Old 05-10-2019, 06:22 AM
 
7,687 posts, read 5,124,120 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneasterisk View Post
I stumbled upon this blog post and thought folks here may enjoy running their numbers through it:

https://www.keepthrifty.com/2017/01/...ement-freedom/

I put in my numbers and I'm on the brink of hitting my freedom date in 7/2019, with the assumption of retiring at 65. Since I want to retire at 51, I have been really funneling money into my brokerage and retirement accounts. I've also been working to pay down the house and minimize debt as much as possible. The calculator supports my own calculations that I'll be able to do it by the time I'm 51. Hopefully the numbers will work out

One thing it doesn't factor in is an outside pension that I'll be eligible for. I winged it by reducing my expected retirement expenses to compensate for the pension.
Good for you!

I’ve got 12 years on and 13 more to go for my police pension. Should be able to retire at 48. House will be paid off in about 7 and 1/2 years and then that money can be thrown into more savings.

Yes avoid debt like the plague!!
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Old 05-10-2019, 06:37 AM
 
106,696 posts, read 108,880,922 times
Reputation: 80174
the calculator is useless ....it is assuming an average growth rate every year as well as an average inflation rate with never a year in the negative .... doing it this way can have a 30 year retirement off by as much as 15 years as to how long the money will last between the best sequences of returns and the worst . if it is longer than 30 years the spread gets worse

never ever use a calculator that tells you to put in average anything be it returns or inflation .

do yourself a favor , use firecalc , there is way to much error in this one. anything worse then average outcomes will leave you taking a pay cut . that defeats the whole purpose of planning around a safe withdrawal rate .

don't forget to change the portfolio allocation to what you plan on using .
https://firecalc.com/

Last edited by mathjak107; 05-10-2019 at 06:58 AM..
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Old 05-10-2019, 06:48 AM
 
Location: Censorshipville...
4,437 posts, read 8,133,641 times
Reputation: 5021
Quote:
Originally Posted by westcoastforme View Post
Good for you!

I’ve got 12 years on and 13 more to go for my police pension. Should be able to retire at 48. House will be paid off in about 7 and 1/2 years and then that money can be thrown into more savings.

Yes avoid debt like the plague!!
Thank you for your service! You must signed on pretty young!!

If things work out, we're planning at having the house paid off within a year, 2 at the most. That will probably accelerate the savings aspect but I still have to work if I want that full pension and continued access to the health insurance.

The only other debt we have besides mortgage is a car loan of about 13k. I recently bought my wife a used minivan. We're looking at getting that paid off in about 4 years.
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Old 05-10-2019, 06:58 AM
 
Location: Censorshipville...
4,437 posts, read 8,133,641 times
Reputation: 5021
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the calculator is useless ....it is assuming an average growth rate every year as well as an average inflation rate with never a year in the negative .... doing it this way can have a 30 year retirement off by as much as 15 years as to how long the money will last between the best sequences of returns and the worst . if it is longer than 30 years the spread gets worse

never ever use a calculator that tells you to put in average anything be it returns or inflation .

do yourself a favor , use firecalc , there is way to much error in this one. anything worse then average outcomes will leave you taking a pay cut . that defeats the whole purpose of planning around a safe withdrawal rate .
Thanks I'll check it out! It's always nice to have another way to look at things.

I used a pretty low investment return of 6%. I'd rather plan a lower return than be too optimistic.
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Old 05-10-2019, 07:00 AM
 
106,696 posts, read 108,880,922 times
Reputation: 80174
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneasterisk View Post
Thanks I'll check it out! It's always nice to have another way to look at things.

I used a pretty low investment return of 6%. I'd rather plan a lower return than be too optimistic.
averages do not work when spending down ....the same exact average return and inflation can fail 15 years sooner based on just the order of the gains and losses coming in . the creator of that calculator needs to go back to retirement planning 101
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Old 05-10-2019, 07:19 AM
 
456 posts, read 348,955 times
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FIRECalc and I-Orp both give you Monte Carlo simulations so you can see the bad scenarios as well as the good ones. I think you get a better feel for your actual risk.
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Old 05-10-2019, 07:49 AM
 
106,696 posts, read 108,880,922 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by numsgal View Post
FIRECalc and I-Orp both give you Monte Carlo simulations so you can see the bad scenarios as well as the good ones. I think you get a better feel for your actual risk.
the default on firecalc is not monte carlo .it is actually based on the historical data as it played out .. it does have a monte carlo mode that you can use but that is not what it is known for
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Old 05-10-2019, 09:04 AM
 
456 posts, read 348,955 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the default on firecalc is not monte carlo .it is actually based on the historical data as it played out .. it does have a monte carlo mode that you can use but that is not what it is known for

True, but I found that option to be very valuable when I was determining what our potential risk is/was to retire when we did.


I-Orp also doesn't default to Monte Carlo. You have to select it. I still found it helpful.
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Old 05-10-2019, 09:11 AM
 
106,696 posts, read 108,880,922 times
Reputation: 80174
the fidelity planner is excellent too .. that is also monte carlo based
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