Where Philadelphia's Other Future Is Being Written: The Northeast (Oxford: middle-class, 2015)

[MarketStEl]

Those of you who attend, or may have attended, a public forum on (a) the upcoming election (b) development and planning in the city - or those of you who have read articles I've written on sites like Hidden City - may have heard me utter this phrase:

"There are two futures being written for Philadelphia right now. One of them is being written in Center City. The other is being written in the Northeast."

This fact first hit me way back in the early 1990s, while everyone else was still bemoaning the city's continuing resident drain. The 1990 Census figures contained the first signs that the drain would soon end. Besides the fact that the population loss curve was flattening, two parts of the city actually gained residents during the 1980s.

One was Center City. The other was Juniata Park, in the lower Northeast.

I think we are all very well aware of what has happened in Center City since then. I think we are not as aware of the dramatic change that has swept Philadelphia's vast in-city suburb.

First of all, it has become an immigrant magnet that puts South Philly to shame. Especially west of the Boulevard, the Northeast is now home to a dazzling variety of immigrants from a number of countries: Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Korea, Russia and even Mongolia (IIRC), to name a few. I saw people from all of these countries during my 18-month sojourn in Oxford Circle, although I had to travel north through Rhawnhurst to Bell's Corner before I ran into the Russians.

Second, it has exploded even more than Center City has. According to a City Planning Commission report last year, the Lower Northeast planning district was the fastest-growing of all the city's planning districts.

Third is the way in which it has exploded. According to that same Planning Commission report, births accounted for the lion's share of the population growth in the Lower Northeast.

But there's one more reason we should pay attention to the changing fortunes of the Northeast. If more recent trends are any indication, it will be the main engine of durable population growth in the coming years.

Philly is once again experiencing a net out-migration of native-born Americans (of all races and ethnic backgrounds), according to this year's population estimates. What keeps the population growing now are two things: Births far outnumber deaths, and immigration from abroad shows no sign of slowing.

Which brings us back to that City Planning Commission stat about the Lower Northeast. Births, and immigration from abroad. The second future is taking over.

What will that mean for the future of the city as a whole? Is the Northeast built to handle it as it is? Or the rest of the city, for that matter? Can we make it so the immigrants' kids choose to stick around when they reach the point where they have that choice? (And what about the native born? What can we do to keep them around? Might the answers there dovetail with those that might anchor the immigrants more firmly to the city?

Your thoughts on all this? Take it away. Here's a little more background reading on the subject, courtesy Yours Truly:

The Green Grass of the Middle Class | Hidden City Philadelphia (2013)

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Those of you who attend, or may have attended, a public forum on (a) the upcoming election (b) development and planning in the city - or those of you who have read articles I've written on sites like Hidden City - may have heard me utter this phrase:

"There are two futures being written for Philadelphia right now. One of them is being written in Center City. The other is being written in the Northeast."

This fact first hit me way back in the early 1990s, while everyone else was still bemoaning the city's continuing resident drain. The 1990 Census figures contained the first signs that the drain would soon end. Besides the fact that the population loss curve was flattening, two parts of the city actually gained residents during the 1980s.

One was Center City. The other was Juniata Park, in the lower Northeast.

I think we are all very well aware of what has happened in Center City since then. I think we are not as aware of the dramatic change that has swept Philadelphia's vast in-city suburb.

First of all, it has become an immigrant magnet that puts South Philly to shame. Especially west of the Boulevard, the Northeast is now home to a dazzling variety of immigrants from a number of countries: Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Korea, Russia and even Mongolia (IIRC), to name a few. I saw people from all of these countries during my 18-month sojourn in Oxford Circle, although I had to travel north through Rhawnhurst to Bell's Corner before I ran into the Russians.

Second, it has exploded even more than Center City has. According to a City Planning Commission report last year, the Lower Northeast planning district was the fastest-growing of all the city's planning districts.

Third is the way in which it has exploded. According to that same Planning Commission report, births accounted for the lion's share of the population growth in the Lower Northeast.

But there's one more reason we should pay attention to the changing fortunes of the Northeast. If more recent trends are any indication, it will be the main engine of durable population growth in the coming years.

Philly is once again experiencing a net out-migration of native-born Americans (of all races and ethnic backgrounds), according to this year's population estimates. What keeps the population growing now are two things: Births far outnumber deaths, and immigration from abroad shows no sign of slowing.

Which brings us back to that City Planning Commission stat about the Lower Northeast. Births, and immigration from abroad. The second future is taking over.

What will that mean for the future of the city as a whole? Is the Northeast built to handle it as it is? Or the rest of the city, for that matter? Can we make it so the immigrants' kids choose to stick around when they reach the point where they have that choice? (And what about the native born? What can we do to keep them around? Might the answers there dovetail with those that might anchor the immigrants more firmly to the city?

Your thoughts on all this? Take it away. Here's a little more background reading on the subject, courtesy Yours Truly:

The Green Grass of the Middle Class | Hidden City Philadelphia (2013)

Your article is two years old. Will there be a more detailed followup?

[kidphilly]

Its time to put money and focus behind the Blvd extension and look for commercial and job opportunities along the Blvd to coincide

[thedirtypirate]

What will that mean for the future of the city as a whole? Is the Northeast built to handle it as it is? Or the rest of the city, for that matter? Can we make it so the immigrants' kids choose to stick around when they reach the point where they have that choice? (And what about the native born? What can we do to keep them around? Might the answers there dovetail with those that might anchor the immigrants more firmly to the city?

Your thoughts on all this? Take it away

I wish there was an easy answer to all of this. I would love to see the northeast more integrated into transit making it easier to get out there, but I don't think there is a financially feasible option right now. I got my first job in Philly along the blvd and man was it a pain in my butt commuting from lower north philly. However I still think the major problem, and I believe this is obvious, is that there just are not enough middle class paying jobs to keep enough people around. The disparity is only growing between the haves and have nots. Our tax structure is not conducive for businesses to open up shop here and bring the type of work here that we need.

[PhillyPhan95]

The "Immigrant Innovation Hub" just got a $261,500 grant from the Knight Cities Challenge to open up in the Northeast. I really do think actively inviting immigrants in a good thing for the Northeast.

Edit: It's actually in Mt. Airy. Still...

http://www.knightfoundation.org/grants/201550659/

[Clark Park]

Good article, Market St El.

1. That was an AWFUL picture of you and you're a much handsomer man in real life (I've seen you in real life). You gotta get someone to take a better, more realistic photo of you. Were you sick on that day?

2. As a property owner in West Philly I wish you would have given credit to where credit is due ... there is a boom going on here in West Philly, not just within the recognized "borders" of University City, but the redevelopment is pushing outward to places like Mantua, West Powelton and west of 50th Street.

3. I am also impressed by all the new construction going on in parts of Fishtown and "South Kensington" or "Olde Kensington."

[thwanko]

The sheer diversity of stores along Castor Ave sort of blew my mind the first time I went there. It's like the Philly version of Queens up there.

[kyb01]

Originally Posted by thwanko

The sheer diversity of stores along Castor Ave sort of blew my mind the first time I went there. It's like the Philly version of Queens up there.

Exactly. More people should discover these neighborhoods! Lots of cool stuff, IMO.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by thwanko

The sheer diversity of stores along Castor Ave sort of blew my mind the first time I went there. It's like the Philly version of Queens up there.

Strong parallels between the Northeast and Queens. Both were White ethnic holdouts that have diversified over the years. Driving down Cottman nowadays, I usually see mixed-groups of kids stomping up and down the street in their little crews. I wish there was more of that when I was growing up.

[Clark Park]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Strong parallels between the Northeast and Queens. Both were White ethnic holdouts that have diversified over the years. Driving down Cottman nowadays, I usually see mixed-groups of kids stomping up and down the street in their little crews. I wish there was more of that when I was growing up.

I was born in Flushing, Queens. Once upon a time it was very middle class Jewish ... dozens of synagogues there. Remember The Nanny ? Now it is overwhelmingly Asian, and is the bigger Chinatown than the famous one in lower Manhattan.