Philly lost more than 7% of jobs and could lose 19,000 commuters a day, Pew study says (Philadelphia: real estate, city hall)

[JamesJay64]

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20220209.html

[thedirtypirate]

We have talked about it for years on this board at this point. Relying on the wage tax has always been a far too volatile source of revenue that fluctuates far more than fixed revenues like property taxes.

It's been a little over 5 years since I created this thread to try to generate some discussion on the topic: https://www.city-data.com/forum/phil...allet-box.html

Everyone always knew this was coming. The city hall oligarchy didn't care. In fact, every since the Chamber of Commerce voted against the Levy-Sweeney plan, I have been far more pessimistic. The pandemic obviously accelerated the timeline greatly.

I think it's almost time to cut loses, admit defeat, and declare bankruptcy. You could probably generate a lot more goodwill and understanding from the public currently due to the Pandemic vs. just randomly declaring bankruptcy.

[cpomp]

I will paste my response from another thread. This was in response to a poster who shared this article with rather gloomy opinion... To note, I 100% think the mistakes made by City Council over the years are the driving factors for why nationwide problems are usually worse in Philadelphia, and Council takes an a** backwards approach to most pressing QOL and economic issues. But I still don't see everything as doom and gloom...


It's not that grim. Philadelphia is still a major economic force even with it's problems exacerbated by the pandemic (and the problems are hardly unique to Philly). Thankfully the notable institutions located in the city will make sure the city remains economically relevant in the coming decades. Could more be done? Of course! Could leaders take a more proactive and growth friendly approach? 100%! But I still see a bright future for Philadelphia, there is too much momentum to prove otherwise. The biggest hindrance IMO is crap leaders that almost go out of their way to make Philadelphia mediocre rather than world class.

I travel a lot for work, and while Dallas and others are boomtowns, the respective cores are mediocre at best, built around the car and office worker, Philadelphia is the exact opposite, which is a blessing. I was also in San Fran around Christmas for work, and it felt like night and day compared to the rebound of Center City.

Plus, when you break down simple economic stats, housing permits stats, per capita stats, Philadelphia finishes right in the middle of the big city pack, even with a high poverty rate, which was just starting to reduce when the pandemic hit...

And as much as some on here hate to admit, Philadelphia has extremely prosperous suburbs. There is a level of back and forth and musical chair with the burbs, but prosperous burbs and a prosperous core are a perfect storm for continued growth.

In summary, fighting crime and poverty, and investing in pro-growth economic and tourism strategies (LIFE SCIENCES!) are the factors at play that will determine how fast or slow Philadelphia grows/improves in the coming decade. Most of which are intertwined.

Lastly, we all read it, but the Inquirer is a drab paper, and as other posters mentioned, the author just lists Pew findings without any context or greater explanation.

[NewtownBucks]

I work at a financial services company in Old City. While our upper management has been stressing that we are an "in-office" company, my area alone (there are 6 people under me) has lost 2 people to fully remote outside offers and there are a couple more who are pushing to stay remote even after our RTO plan goes into affect, and I will push hard to allow them to do that, as I have no desire to keep replacing people in a highly technically skilled profession where losing experience is a big set back. I don't know how much of my office will end up remote, but the RTO plan has a target of only 3 days in the office per week right now, so that is a 40% reduction in people in the office off the top, not counting the additional people who will be granted full time remote work plans.

[thedirtypirate]

Originally Posted by NewtownBucks

I work at a financial services company in Old City. While our upper management has been stressing that we are an "in-office" company, my area alone (there are 6 people under me) has lost 2 people to fully remote outside offers and there are a couple more who are pushing to stay remote even after our RTO plan goes into affect, and I will push hard to allow them to do that, as I have no desire to keep replacing people in a highly technically skilled profession where losing experience is a big set back. I don't know how much of my office will end up remote, but the RTO plan has a target of only 3 days in the office per week right now, so that is a 40% reduction in people in the office off the top, not counting the additional people who will be granted full time remote work plans.

Yep, seems to be pretty common at this point.

One good sign is this:

21% of Center City and University City employers anticipate reducing their physical real estate and office footprint, primarily because of a greater reliance on remote work, 79% expect to maintain or expand the amount of space they occupy, the survey found.

Philly is about to ride the Eds and Meds wave real hard with the gene therapy startups.






Figures we finally had it cooking before and got kneecapped by the pandemic before we could raise and lower a few more of these stats. I don't actually know if the fiscal picture is grim enough to contemplate bankruptcy, but if it was, I view it more as an opportunity to change some structural things that have held the city back for far too long.

[NewtownBucks]

Originally Posted by thedirtypirate

Yep, seems to be pretty common at this point.

One good sign is this:

Philly is about to ride the Eds and Meds wave real hard with the gene therapy startups.

Figures we finally had it cooking before and got kneecapped by the pandemic before we could raise and lower a few more of these stats. I don't actually know if the fiscal picture is grim enough to contemplate bankruptcy, but if it was, I view it more as an opportunity to change some structural things that have held the city back for far too long.

There has been no talk in my office of reducing the office space, but I think it's probably fairly likely. We currently occupy 95% of one building and a couple floors of a building across the street, and pre-pandemic, office space was a premium and there were even talks of looking for a larger space. I'm in the office today, and there are many open offices and cubes, so I would not be surprised to see the second building lease ended eventually (when practical). I don't think we'll need it if the company eventually allows full time remote as a regular thing instead of an approved exception. There's no need for 90% of the people in the company to be physically present in the office anyway. We've been doing just fine for two years remotely.

[wanderer34]

This thread is no surprise. From the late 2000's to the early 2010's Philly seemed to be on an upswing. However during the mid 2010's it seems to be that Philly is going back down in population. If each of the 19K commuters represented a head of household of about 4-5 other people including significant other and dependents, then that would mean that 76K-114K could leave the city for whatever reason. The main reason for people moving out of the city is because of crime, schools, and unemployment.

I had to go al the way to SF just t work the old job that I had which was taxi driving, and did make a good deal of money, not great, but good enough by Philly standards. The fact is that Philadelphia this past decade hasn't been as innovative and as dynamic that a lot of boosters try to make it and being a former booster, it's hard o see what Philadelphia is slowly devolving into or about to become. The Comcast Technology Center is the ugliest tower I've seen in a long time and still to this day I avoid looking at the Tower of Satan which is what I personally call it since it represents Comcast, high cable bills, and the MSM, which has provided a lot of misinformation for the past 5-6 years.

Philadelphia isn't the same city I grew up to love ever since as a kid. When I first came to Philadelphia on a field trip back in 1995, I instantly fell in love with the city because it felt the same as NYC, but nowadays, I feel like it's lost not only it's soul but it's heart. The beautiful skyline that it once had has been scarred by the CITC, SEPTA is in even worse condition, big companies other than Comcast are moving out or are planning on moving out, and I don't really see Philly coming back to it's glory. It's still going to be a big city of over 1 million should but it's not going to be the same city that it was back in the 20th century nor will it have the same clout it once did have neither as emerging cities such as Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, San Diego, and San Jose continue to emerge.

[cpomp]

Enough with CITC, you mention it in literally every post...

And we get it, you think Philadelphia is over, you don't need to come out of hiding twice a year and repeat yourself. It's not worth reasonably debating the flaws in your argument since your mind is made up.

[Angus215]

Originally Posted by NewtownBucks

I work at a financial services company in Old City. While our upper management has been stressing that we are an "in-office" company, my area alone (there are 6 people under me) has lost 2 people to fully remote outside offers and there are a couple more who are pushing to stay remote even after our RTO plan goes into affect, and I will push hard to allow them to do that, as I have no desire to keep replacing people in a highly technically skilled profession where losing experience is a big set back. I don't know how much of my office will end up remote, but the RTO plan has a target of only 3 days in the office per week right now, so that is a 40% reduction in people in the office off the top, not counting the additional people who will be granted full time remote work plans.

Every day you commute into the city of Philadelphia, you get the "privilege" of giving an extra 2.5% of your income to the City, paying $13 to SEPTA (or surviving Philly's poorly-planned highway system and paying $30 to park), frequently inhaling second-hand marijuana, dodging panhandlers, and being forced to needlessly wear a cloth mask over your face. Why would anyone want to work remote???

The city needs new leadership for sure. Specifically, leadership that is not progressive liberal. As a poster said above, Philly had been on the right trajectory for decades . . . until Kenney (and Krasner) came along. It had even started to (slowly) reduce its highest-in-the-country wage tax. But that progress has all reversed.

[JamesJay64]

Originally Posted by Angus215

Every day you commute into the city of Philadelphia, you get the "privilege" of giving an extra 2.5% of your income to the City, paying $13 to SEPTA (or surviving Philly's poorly-planned highway system and paying $30 to park), frequently inhaling second-hand marijuana, dodging panhandlers, and being forced to needlessly wear a cloth mask over your face. Why would anyone want to work remote???

The city needs new leadership for sure. Specifically, leadership that is not progressive liberal. As a poster said above, Philly had been on the right trajectory for decades . . . until Kenney (and Krasner) came along. It had even started to (slowly) reduce its highest-in-the-country wage tax. But that progress has all reversed.

Honestly, the people that cite "frequently inhaling second-hand marijuana" as something wrong with the city instantly lose credibility to me. As a Center City resident, I can confidently say that I don't even smell it on a daily basis, and I walk absolutely everywhere. It's definitely no worse than other places I've lived... probably better than DC.

Most suburbanites' complaints show that they just hate cities in general.