Phoenix still growing - latest census data (Gilbert, Surprise: transplants, 2014)

[sh9730]

Interesting for the fact/figure geeks like me.....


"Decade of the City"?

There is a search feature that lets you see the population growth for any city in the country over 50K population.

Phoenix has grown 4.5% since 2010.....

Several other valley cities of course are on the list....

Casa Grande has officially cracked the 50K mark now and has grown a whopping 88% since 2000!!!

Gilbert has more than doubled since 2000!! Well over 200K now... ]

But SURPRISE is the one that did just that for me....growth of 298% since 2000!

I love this kind of stuff - that's why C-D is such a cool site.

[phenomenon]

Excuse the pun, but I'm not surprised that Surprise has grown so much in recent years. It has been a major destination for retirees since the 1990s and first-time home owners who can't afford to live closer to downtown Phoenix. Funnily, Flora Mae Statler, who named the city Surprise, did so as she "would be surprised if the town ever amounted to much".

I have mixed feelings about this news. While I welcome a population increase, I'd prefer if we were building upwards rather than spreading the metro area outwards. What was empty desert 10 years ago is now suburbia thanks to the blocks of cheap housing that have been built.

[sh9730]

Well - of course we all know that MOST of the exponential growth since 2000 all occurred prior to 2008. Growth has been much more modest since 2010 - I mean even surprise only grew 5% since 2010 so all the other 200+% was before that.

Gilbert though is still on a pretty good clip with growth of 10% since 2010 - that's about 3+% per year...which in these times is pretty healthy.....

It ll be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 years....whether the recent housing price increases (which granted have slowed this year) will reinvigorate the "drive til you qualify" mentality - or people will stay closer in but just rent.

I always throw in the outlier that CG will likely grow differently than the region as a whole since we will have Phoenixmart coming in as well as other projects that will almost REQUIRE population growth....

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Well - of course we all know that MOST of the exponential growth since 2000 all occurred prior to 2008. Growth has been much more modest since 2010 - I mean even surprise only grew 5% since 2010 so all the other 200+% was before that.

Gilbert though is still on a pretty good clip with growth of 10% since 2010 - that's about 3+% per year...which in these times is pretty healthy.....

It ll be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 years....whether the recent housing price increases (which granted have slowed this year) will reinvigorate the "drive til you qualify" mentality - or people will stay closer in but just rent.

I always throw in the outlier that CG will likely grow differently than the region as a whole since we will have Phoenixmart coming in as well as other projects that will almost REQUIRE population growth....

It looks like the burbs are still winning. Goodyear and Gilbert were the fastest growing cities in the state last year. Goodyear was 6th fastest in the nation on a percentage basis. Neither one is terribly far out, but neither are infill areas either.

Goodyear, Gilbert among nation's fastest-growing

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It looks like the burbs are still winning. Goodyear and Gilbert were the fastest growing cities in the state last year. Goodyear was 6th fastest in the nation on a percentage basis. Neither one is terribly far out, but neither are infill areas either.

Goodyear, Gilbert among nation's fastest-growing

According to your link, Utah is also one of the fastest growing states. I wonder if Gilbert and Utah's growth is partially due to Mormonism? It's well understood Mormons have large families. Could Phoenix growth explosion also be partially due to the Catholicism (heavy Hispanic influence that have large families)?

[phenomenon]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

According to your link, Utah is also one of the fastest growing states. I wonder if Gilbert and Utah's growth is partially due to Mormonism? It's well understood Mormons have large families. Could Phoenix growth explosion also be partially due to the Catholicism (heavy Hispanic influence that have large families)?

I'd say the population increase is more to do with immigration from south of the border and transplants from the East coast looking for warmer climates. The Phoenix metro is a very transient area - many people here are from somewhere else!

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

According to your link, Utah is also one of the fastest growing states. I wonder if Gilbert and Utah's growth is partially due to Mormonism? It's well understood Mormons have large families. Could Phoenix growth explosion also be partially due to the Catholicism (heavy Hispanic influence that have large families)?

I'd say that the birth rates have little to do with the growth we are seeing. They are a contributor, but the most important contributor is the fact that new homes are being built in those places due to the availability of land and homes are selling because home prices are fairly affordable and Gilbert is known to have very good schools and is a safe community.

The other major factor is net in-migration from other states. Arizona is a desirable destination for many in the Midwest, East Coast, and California because it offers a lower cost of living (i.e. more affordable housing), lower taxes, and better weather (well, not for the Californians!). Also, over the past 4 years the recovery in jobs and housing has been substantial compared to elsewhere in the US. A lot of people moved here as we were recovering from the housing recession since they could pick up large homes for cheap and take advantage of the improving economy and RE market.

[shiphead]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

I'd say that the birth rates have little to do with the growth we are seeing. They are a contributor, but the most important contributor is the fact that new homes are being built in those places due to the availability of land and homes are selling because home prices are fairly affordable and Gilbert is known to have very good schools and is a safe community.

The other major factor is net in-migration from other states. Arizona is a desirable destination for many in the Midwest, East Coast, and California because it offers a lower cost of living (i.e. more affordable housing), lower taxes, and better weather (well, not for the Californians!). Also, over the past 4 years the recovery in jobs and housing has been substantial compared to elsewhere in the US. A lot of people moved here as we were recovering from the housing recession since they could pick up large homes for cheap and take advantage of the improving economy and RE market.

Frey adds, however, that he'll be watching next year's data to see if suburban growth picks up as the Millennial generation — 86 million Americans between the ages of 10 and 30 — begin having children in larger numbers.

Between ages 10 and 30 huh? I had to giggle. But in all seriousness, I hope the Millennials aren't moving here, I hope they are smarter than that.

[Valley Native]

It's high time that we stop advocating growth just for the sheer numbers, and start looking at what kind of growth we are attracting. In just a few decades, the Phoenix metro area has grown from a medium sized resort/retirement destination to one of the largest regions in the nation. Do we still want to attract mostly snowbirds, retirees, and people who move here strictly for the warm climate??? Those people really do very little as far as helping out the overall economy, except create a demand for more low wage service level jobs. As a large metro area, we are well overdue in trying to lure in more business minded people, entrepreneurs, and the like, which will bring in the higher paying competitive jobs.

Growth is always welcome, but it's how we manage it that matters most. Building more exurban communities and retirement areas is not what we need to keep doing. Even parts of Florida (Miami area in particular) have realized that successful growth cannot be limited to just retirees and sun lovers.

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by phenomenon

I'd say the population increase is more to do with immigration from south of the border and transplants from the East coast looking for warmer climates. The Phoenix metro is a very transient area - many people here are from somewhere else!

You say this as if it's a bad thing. I actually think is a strength of Phoenix. It's a big reason why people are so friendly in Phoenix. When you move to a community, you have to be nice to become accepted and form friends. I feel like it is very easy to meet people and make friends. Even when compared to the Miami metropolitan area, you don't see the transient population and people are stuck in cliques and don't want to meet people.