Real estate has already experienced double digit gains from 2013! :) (Phoenix: for sale, 2014)

[vince3vince]

I told you real estate will continue to soar sky high this year. Forget income growth or attracting jobs, we can now easily get within 10% of precrisis highs without even renovating now that the market has set so many precedents. The median home sale in March is already 12% higher from last march. I predict we are soon going to new highs never seen even before 2007! Our homes are so desirable and they are only going up now .

Median home price in Phoenix climbs almost $10,000 in month

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

I told you real estate will continue to soar sky high this year. Forget income growth or attracting jobs, we can now easily get within 10% of precrisis highs without even renovating now that the market has set so many precedents. The median home sale in March is already 12% higher from last march. I predict we are soon going to new highs never seen even before 2007! Our homes are so desirable and they are only going up now .

Median home price in Phoenix climbs almost $10,000 in month

Not so fast! The article said: "We may still be looking at little to no annual price appreciation by the end of the year," Orr said.

AZcentral pulled out a couple quotes from http://wpcarey.asu.edu/sites/default...ort-201404.pdf . But Mr. Or explained the median price increases. He said:

"At the top end of the market sales of single family homes over $500,000 grew 11% over March 2013.
Sales of single family homes below $150,000 fell 42%......

The situation has changed dramatically from March 2013 when the luxury market was 21% larger than
the low end market in terms of dollars spent. In contrast, 134% more dollars were spent on homes over
$500,000 in March 2014 than on homes under $150,000. This has boosted the average price per square
foot by skewing the market towards the high end compared with last year. "

The operative word is "skewing".
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I conclude the luxury market is doing better and skewing the last couple of months because the interest rates have dropped slightly, the stock market is back up into bubble territory and the jumbo loan borrowing amounts increased. In other words, people want to "keep up with the Jones" and are leveraging their life style. Many didn't learn a thing from the past crash. As always, I really REALLY want the RE pricing to go sky-high in the Valley. Mr. Orr doesn't see it happening but he admits the Phoenix market is very volatile.

[sh9730]

Down here in Casa Grande - which I follow on a daily basis - and I think is a good indicator of the lower end market that had severe issues 2007-2012 - has gone into a real stable phase now. We have had right at 350 home on the market daily (some days 345, some days 360) for about 3 months now. Looking at ARMLS stats our median price in the COUNTY (they don't break down into CG specifically) went up only 800 dollars from March to April. Yes, year over year it was still good...but it wont be that dramatic a year from now.

Im not saying Im worried....4-5% per year growth is just fine with me as long as the stability stays in place which it seems to be doing right now...for CG SPECIFICALLY the "X" factor will be the Phoenixmart project which actually had some graders moving dirt yesterday. This project could bump up prices here, unless the new home builders step in to keep inventory up....which is very likely.

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

I told you real estate will continue to soar sky high this year. Forget income growth or attracting jobs, we can now easily get within 10% of precrisis highs without even renovating now that the market has set so many precedents. The median home sale in March is already 12% higher from last march. I predict we are soon going to new highs never seen even before 2007! Our homes are so desirable and they are only going up now .

Median home price in Phoenix climbs almost $10,000 in month

We recently sold a house we had in Surprise. Houses in the neighborhood we sold it in were going in the low 300's at the peak(think that was around 2006 or 2007 or so) for the exact sq footage/layout home we had. Ours just sold for about 120k less than what they were going for peak as are other similar homes in the community...for that matter, throughout the city. Our house had nice upgrades too though that only gets one so much in any market, just makes it show better. And I noticed the market has really slowed and prices dropped a good 15k or so since last summer where we sold in Surprise. I've been following the market closely, watching what homes have been selling/closed at over the last year or so in our development where we sold in.....and throughout the city of Surprise.

Would have loved to get that 10% within pre-crisis highs you speak about but not even close. To get that 120k or so more appreciation to reach that bubble peak we had back in 2006 or so, with "normal" house appreciation, it's going to be a long, long time before we see that unless we get into bubble mode again quickly in the next few years which I doubt and which I think wouldn't be healthy either.

[hikernut]

Much higher property prices are a bit of a mixed blessing. Sure, it's always nice to see one's net worth increase. But along with it comes higher taxes and higher insurance rates. If you own a bunch of rental properties, then of course you want to see sky high prices. But if you just own your own house, and plan on living here a long time, I think it's a bit of a hollow victory.

I think it would be better for the local economy if housing prices were not so volatile. I can see the cycle repeating... house prices spike up, homeowners cash out equity and spend it, house prices collapse, homeowners default and leave yet another mess. The problems could even escalate if more people pile onto the process, after seeing how their friends and neighbors made off like bandits during the previous cycle.

hikernut

[DetroitN8V]

This is purely observational, but the market here in North Scottsdale in the $400k-800k range seems to have really softened. I'm watching several nicely updated houses that have been sitting for 120 days+ that are priced below $200/sq ft.

[whodiman]

Sold our place in Surprise back in March. We started with an exclusive listing and Dec 2013 and had interest at first. The one deal fell through and we moved it onto MLS. Interest began to wane quickly. Listings of similiar houses hit the market and began sitting. I think we were lucky to sell without having to cut the price but I don't think the same can be said for anyone in that area trying to sell now.

[grmi66]

A 1700 starter house next to mine in a decent neighborhood in Avondale sat on the market for at least 4-5 months. Priced at $86/sq foot. Just a quick look on Trulia (not the best source, I know) but every other house for sale around mine are foreclosures or short sales. Will be interesting to see if sales pick up on this side of the valley.

[HX_Guy]

Houses are definitely sitting quite a bit longer than they used to but if it's priced right, or on the cheaper side, they seem to be moving. A couple of condos I was looking at off of 101 and 7th Ave went on the market and pending within days...one listed at $80k had an offer after 14 days and another listed at $77k went pending after only 6 days.

In our neighborhood in N. Peoria a spec home just went pending after being on the market for 42 days (if it sells at the price/sq ft listed, it would mean a 21% appreciation of our own home in the past 1.5 years). Another house just went up for sale days ago a couple streets down, 2 story vs our 1 story, but similar upgrades (pool, etc) and at their price/sq ft, it would mean a 37% increase in value (I think they are priced too high but I guess we'll see what the market says).

[Ponderosa]

While the return of equity is welcome, my house is nowhere near 10% from what it was at the peak. If it were, I would sell it in a heartbeat and leave. We are maybe at 2004-2005. Good, I guess, but we have lost and have yet to recover 10 years of normal appreciation that would have taken place in the market without the recession and the housing collapse. Without wage gains, we are not going to go much higher any time soon.