AZ is not fairing well (Surprise, Casa Grande: sales, real estate, mortgage)

[twiggy]

New home construction lowest since 1991, our unemployment is up. People still aren't buying homes.
Arizona is one of the hardest hit in this economic disaster. Does anyone ever think of moving to a more stable area of the country? Some states such as Oklahoma are fairing pretty well. Just curious to see if this is effecting anyone or is it mainly people in the construction or home improvement industry.
Thanks

[LordBalfor]

I have to say, I'm kind of curious how the folks who were cheering on the housing collapse when it first began are feeling now. I remember when prices first started falling, how many people here on this board were extremely pleased.

Still pleased?
Pleased but angry at those who caused the problem?
Seeing light at the end of the tunnel?
Seeing further doom and gloom?
Surprised by how things have spiraled into a big mess?
Not surprised by that at all?

Not criticizing those folks - clearly there was a LOT of dirty-dealing going on in the housing/mortgage industry that had inflated prices, and many locals were being priced out of the housing market - just curious how they feel about it now.

Ken

[MaxPower123]

I'd buy a house if someone sold me a "ready to move in" one for under $90k ^_^

[sh9730]

Actually, sales for homes in AZ are UP year over year in August, but slightly down from July - of course prices are still down year over year. But the new listings is down, numbers of sales are up, and new home construction almost non-existent. In my neighborhood of Casa Grande, the same trends seem to be happening. Less new listings vs sales (according to azcentral.com weekly sales figures) and the median price is holding pretty steady and actually increased this week, abeit one week does not a trend make.

Combined with (whether you agree with the tactics of the US Treas/FED or not) the new plans announced this morning, maybe we ll actually start to catch up more quickly now. I actually believe this to be the case, although I think Im still in the minority.

For the sales figures I quoted check out the ARMLS and AZ Central websites.

www.armls.com

www.azcentral.com - click on data central and enter your zip code for weekly home sales.

[MotleyCrew]

The slowdown has slammed us pretty hard, but we are old enough to have weathered several economic crashes and this one will pass in time. I recall the tech industry crash and how hard and deep that hurt while the real estate industry at that point started to climb. I think it is time Americans start to become savers.

[azjack]

"I have to say, I'm kind of curious how the folks who were cheering on the housing collapse when it first began are feeling now. I remember when prices first started falling, how many people here on this board were extremely pleased."
"Still pleased?
Pleased but angry at those who caused the problem?" . . .

I personally wonder how those who spinned that house prices were at a bottom in 2006 and 2007 and 2008 feel about those whom they helped to make a terribly unwise financial decision.

I was pleased when the bubble burst in the same sense that I am pleased when I toss a baseball in the air and gravity returns it to the Earth, or possibly to my mitt. A crash in housing prices following the largest lending/price bubble in history was inevitable. The severe recession (or worse) that is accompanying a six-figure loss in bubble-based wealth for millions of people was also inevitable. There was no way that could have been avoided once that wealth was lost, regardless of whether those dollars were spent via HELOCs, etc.

Had we faced the reality of economic cycles years ago, and not tried to Greenspan our way out of them by setting interest rates at insanely low levels for years, we would have taken our medicine and moved on. But the easy cash flowed in, and the specuvestors (including plenty of locals) followed the advice of RE agents licensed with minimal standards and loan brokers unlicensed with zero standards. It does not take a MENSA member to figure how that was going to play out.

So, thank you, Greenspan, HELOC/credit-card spending yahoos, speculators and brokers of all kind; you have really made us all a little broker.

The Republic will survive, but the question of whether Arizona houses (and most assets) will deflate for the next several years has been clearly answered. When RTC version 2.0 is unloading houses in parcels of twenty, I see zero chance of prices not being significantly lower.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by twiggy

New home construction lowest since 1991, our unemployment is up. People still aren't buying homes.
Arizona is one of the hardest hit in this economic disaster. Does anyone ever think of moving to a more stable area of the country? Some states such as Oklahoma are fairing pretty well. Just curious to see if this is effecting anyone or is it mainly people in the construction or home improvement industry.
Thanks

Funny you mention Oklahoma. I have two properties there that I have been trying to sell. Things are pretty much the same - no buyers, low ball offers, and falling prices, and people whose financing falls through when you do accept an offer.

AZ homeowners are, in some ways, better off. When prices fall in OK they come down from pretty much non-inflated values so you loose "real" money not paper gains that were years ahead of where they should be. My Arizona home has dropped a lot but still enjoyed a much higher rate of appreciation than the OK stuff over the same period. The price I might get today in AZ is not a problem for me. It's the lack of serious buyers and all the games one has to play to sell a home. My sales are fortunately discretionary and I am not going to play games with vultures and fools. But don't think this thing is confined to AZ. Many, many people are hurting all over the country - the world even. Like Lord Balfor said, be careful what you wish for.

Anyway, the sunbelt is the place to be for the long haul. OK, AR will grow a bit with retirees, but the boom times in the south and west are only taking a breather. If you are at the end of you career and have some money socked away, those are great places because of low prices and low taxes. But if you are young and starting out, follow the sun (and the footsteps).

[ArizonaBear]

Winn, lose or draw: I predicted a 40% drop in housing prices back in 2005; people laughed at me------------if anything, I may have under estimated the crash.

Suffice to say: it is no longer funny now.

[phoenix_talons]

Is it that important to buy a house? Why not just rent.

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by MaxPower123

I'd buy a house if someone sold me a "ready to move in" one for under $90k ^_^

count me in on that deal...i'd even move there w/o a job