INFO: Natural population growth by county in the Pittsburgh MSA since 1990 (Washington: real estate, 2013)

[Craziaskowboi]

Here's a chart illustrating the natural population growth by year in each county of the Pittsburgh MSA since 1990, courtesy of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University...


Allegheny County

1990: +1,833
1991: +3,496
1992: +2,541
1993: +1,658
1994: +697
1995: +487
1996: -113
1997: -694
1998: -391
1999: -243
2000: N/A
2001: -1,139
2002: -1,848
2003: -1,400
2004: -1,555
2005: -1,916
2006: -1,210
2007: -794
2008: -1,065
2009: -1,389
2010: +11
2011: -545
2012: -773

Armstrong County

1990: +6
1991: +96
1992: -20
1993: +68
1994: -34
1995: -14
1996: -131
1997: -113
1998: -39
1999: -99
2000: N/A
2001: -178
2002: -188
2003: -176
2004: -121
2005: -186
2006: -103
2007: -91
2008: -142
2009: -154
2010: -25
2011: -142
2012: -230

Beaver County

1990: +215
1991: +624
1992: +272
1993: +237
1994: +157
1995: +193
1996: +2
1997: -59
1998: -25
1999: -25
2000: N/A
2001: -319
2002: -390
2003: -310
2004: -361
2005: -326
2006: -269
2007: -400
2008: -276
2009: -322
2010: -27
2011: -299
2012: -392

Butler County

1990: +498
1991: +876
1992: +574
1993: +715
1994: +629
1995: +677
1996: +553
1997: +489
1998: +484
1999: +514
2000: N/A
2001: +497
2002: +397
2003: +290
2004: +228
2005: +148
2006: +433
2007: +118
2008: +191
2009: +249
2010: +45
2011: -80
2012: -72

Fayette County

1990: -60
1991: +201
1992: +34
1993: +80
1994: -114
1995: -149
1996: -61
1997: -158
1998: -146
1999: -124
2000: N/A
2001: -394
2002: -329
2003: -289
2004: -450
2005: -259
2006: -395
2007: -328
2008: -276
2009: -260
2010: -100
2011: -498
2012: -517

Washington County

1990: +66
1991: +104
1992: +20
1993: +59
1994: -139
1995: -62
1996: -131
1997: -303
1998: -245
1999: -256
2000: N/A
2001: -497
2002: -552
2003: -192
2004: -358
2005: -506
2006: -266
2007: -294
2008: -245
2009: -244
2010: -103
2011: -473
2012: -489

Westmoreland County

1990: +275
1991: +587
1992: +503
1993: +84
1994: -87
1995: -112
1996: -319
1997: -677
1998: -568
1999: -601
2000: N/A
2001: -948
2002: -1,040
2003: -925
2004: -985
2005: -1,118
2006: -841
2007: -956
2008: -974
2009: -996
2010: -227
2011: -1,094
2012: -1,182

Observations

1. All seven counties in the Pittsburgh MSA now have natural population decline, even Butler County, which changed from positive to negative in 2011.

2. Allegheny County is the only county that appears to have a positive trend regarding natural population growth. Every other county has either a flat or negative trend.

3. With the exception of Butler County, every county in the MSA has had natural population decline since the mid-1990's.

4. Years ending in '0' and '1' have somewhat distorted numbers due to the difference in data collection between the official decennial Census and the annual estimates.

Discuss.

[trackstar13]

I posted this in the other thread, the main issue for Pittsburgh and Allegheny county specifically when it comes to population growth is the number of deaths and the lack of births. It seems like in migration is picking up, but those numbers get lost in the population growth because of the lack of births and the high number of deaths. I am not really sure what can be done other than wait it out and hope the young people who are moving to the Burgh start having babies.

[Blackbeauty212]

Yep...Still more Grandma and Grandpas dying than little Jimmy and Abbys are being born.....Allegheny County's Elderly population is just too damn high!

[captainmidnight]

The USA birth rate dropped to a record low in 2011: There's the royal baby, and then there's the rest of us - latimes.com

I'm sure that plays into the numbers a bit

[zman63]

Anybody notice the new census numbers for 2012?

Official 2010 census was 305,704 for the inner city of Pittsburgh

In 2011 (released in 2012) the census was 307,700

The 2012 census released this past may/june 2013 was 306,350

The census bureau estimated Pittsburgh's population around 309-312K. When the final tally came in the experts were 4-7k off of the official count (back in 2010).

Is the census bureau right? If so then the small growth appears to be over and we are in the losing column again...

As a city resident I feel the population was stable from 2009 till now, however this country was in a recession till 2011. Was this more of people staying put due to dire economic conditions elsewhere rather than economic growth in Pittsburgh? Pittsburgh now ranks near the bottom in job growth for the largest 40 metro areas of the US.

[trackstar13]

I believe the census estimates are right and I have been questioning the Pittsburgh area population growth for few years now. Many on this forum attacked me and said I was living in the past with my thoughts questioning the population growth and economic improvement. I am cautiously optimistic and I am hoping for more in migration of young people in the future and less deaths as the overall population gets younger.

[zman63]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

I believe the census estimates are right and I have been questioning the Pittsburgh area population growth for few years now. Many on this forum attacked me and said I was living in the past with my thoughts questioning the population growth and economic improvement. I am cautiously optimistic and I am hoping for more in migration of young people in the future and less deaths as the overall population gets younger.

I share the same thoughts as you. I will remain cautiously optimistic as well. Hopefully the little bit of growth is do to real growth and people not staying put until the economy rebounded elsewhere. Again seeing it in 2010 at 305k, 307k in 2011 and down to 306k in 2012 makes me worry and wonder why the local news has not pointed this out.

Pittsburgh can really be a great place, but there are some shortcomings that really handicap this region.

The weather is not the greatest, the infrastructure is old and in dire need of repair, we still are one of the oldest counties population wise, the public transportation is poor at best, the airport is not even a shell of what it was in the late 90s and early 00s, the culture of the region still has accepted and embraced an inbred economy (friends of friends of relatives get jobs and not the most qualified). Finally, Pittsburgh had the lowest credit rating of any major us city until recently. We are still under pennsylvania municipal act 47 (since 2004), which is a nice way of saying bankruptcy receivership.

We really need to focus on better public transportation and light rail.

Old/run down homes and buildings need to be torn down at a faster pace. More new housing needs to be built with better and more strict land management. Redevelop old urban, suburban and rural municipalities. Don't use the forests or rural wilderness to build a development.

The airport needs to lower its landing fees to stay competitive.

Comprehensive municipal, city, county, school districts need to be merged into one so that everybody is on a level playing field with the same tax rate.

[JoeP]

Estimates are just that. Given the real growth that the city is experiencing, and how early we are in the decade, let's see what change as the city and region move forward.

[trackstar13]

Yeah I am with you Zman63 and what I have argued with many on here about is that I believe the population growth for Pittsburgh and Allegheny county may be flat for a little while longer. Many posters kept posting articles and information about the percentages of growth and the shifts in the younger population and the recent in migration. While all of these things are great they still ignore the fact that there are many older residents who will be dying in the near future and young adults are not having kids to replace them like they used to in the past. Additionally, the in migration while good has not been on the same level as areas like Austin or Houston. I am banking on Pittsburgh/Allegheny county to improve and I plan on buying a city lot and holding it for a little while until I have the money to build. There is a surprising amount of vacant land available in the Burgh right now and some if it is reasonably priced, even in the trendier neighborhoods.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by trackstar13

I am banking on Pittsburgh/Allegheny county to improve and I plan on buying a city lot and holding it for a little while until I have the money to build. There is a surprising amount of vacant land available in the Burgh right now and some if it is reasonably priced, even in the trendier neighborhoods.

Look into what the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has available if you haven't already done so. I have yet to decide whether I want to buy a fixer-upper in another part of town, namely the West End or North Side, or buy a lot here in Polish Hill for dirt cheap and then build a new "micro-house" on the lot once my budget permits while renting in the interim.