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"The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures."
The sun belt states will pick up more EV's, the rust belt will lose them. The GOP will also be in control in more of the redistricting battles than the Dems. However, one thing to keep in mind is many of the states where the GOP will be in charge of redistricting will be in states they were in charge of redistricting in 2000 as well.
Ohio is an example of this, and it is a state that will be losing two Reps. However, due to the heavy GOP gerrymandering last time around in Ohio, and the current make up it will be impossible for both seats being eliminated being Dem seats. In fact in Ohio it might even be tough to make the districts that are lost to be one of each.
The GOP had control in Florida last time around, and did some very extreme gerrymandering. Now Florida has a law which limits the scope of the redistricting power and calls for more compactness in the district. That could wind up costing the GOP a few seats (Allen West's current seat is an example of an extreme gerrymander)
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC
"The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. The population continues to shift from Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures."
Don't assume that those states are going to stay Republican. Texas probably will for awhile but others like Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and New Mexico are much closer. As for gerrymandering, that is more of a problem for Democrat House candidates in the short term but there are only so many Republicans to go around- as they found out when they did that in Pennsylvania. It is to the Republicans advantage to draw fewer SAFE districts that they can win as opposed to drawing many marginal districts that they have to fight over every 2 years and possibly lose as they did in PA.
I never believed gerrymandering really made all that much difference. If it is a crappy year for one party, they are going to lose no matter how funky the districts are drawn. Exceptions include districts that are 75% or more towards one party or the other, although sometimes even the most hardcore districts for one party can flip every once in a blue moon.
The thing is, this year there was a lot of animosity towards Democrats because the economy is still crap 20 months after their economic plan went through. Unless there are other extreme circumstances in 2012, there probably won't be much movement in the House.
The one issue that trumps all others is the economy. If it is still crap in 2012, Obama is gone no matter how many districts are gerrymandered. Otherwise he will probably be re-elected, lest he join the ranks of other presidents who lost even though the economy was stable or growing around election day (H.W. Bush and Ford).
Don't assume that those states are going to stay Republican. Texas probably will for awhile but others like Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and New Mexico are much closer. As for gerrymandering, that is more of a problem for Democrat House candidates in the short term but there are only so many Republicans to go around- as they found out when they did that in Pennsylvania. It is to the Republicans advantage to draw fewer SAFE districts that they can win as opposed to drawing many marginal districts that they have to fight over every 2 years and possibly lose as they did in PA.
Texas is not flipping and Arizona now looks like a lost cause for the dems.
Republicans won all eight 2010 statewide contests. GOP gains in both houses of the state Legislature gave the party a two-thirds majority of both chambers. The new leader of the state Senate, Russell Pearce, is a firebrand conservative who has declared it a "Tea Party Senate."
New population count may complicate Obama 2012 bid - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101219/ap_on_el_ge/us_census_redistricting - broken link)
Quote:
Democrats' problems don't end there.
November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps.
Republicans now control the governor's offices and both legislative chambers in competitive presidential states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Maine and Wisconsin.
2010 was a great year for a conservative surge across the country.
Don't assume that those states are going to stay Republican. Texas probably will for awhile but others like Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and New Mexico are much closer. As for gerrymandering, that is more of a problem for Democrat House candidates in the short term but there are only so many Republicans to go around- as they found out when they did that in Pennsylvania. It is to the Republicans advantage to draw fewer SAFE districts that they can win as opposed to drawing many marginal districts that they have to fight over every 2 years and possibly lose as they did in PA.
Texas is getting redder this cycle. The Texas House was 88 out of 150 Republican. This November pushed it up to 99, then two Dems switched to Republican.
And I just read in an Ed Driscoll column that Texas Congressional delegation will be GAINING 4 seats. I suspect most of those will be in the expanding areas of major metros, usually outside of city limits. North and west of Houston, north of Dallas/Fort Worth. These will remain red districts. Think Tea Party'z.
Texas is getting redder this cycle. The Texas House was 88 out of 150 Republican. This November pushed it up to 99, then two Dems switched to Republican.
And I just read in an Ed Driscoll column that Texas Congressional delegation will be GAINING 4 seats. I suspect most of those will be in the expanding areas of major metros, usually outside of city limits. North and west of Houston, north of Dallas/Fort Worth. These will remain red districts. Think Tea Party'z.
Texas is already gerrymandered to immense proportions. At least one of the districts will be in the heavily Democratic areas along the border. The new districts at best for the GOP will be 3-1, and perhaps 2-2. With the growth in the Austin area, it will become a bit more difficult to carve the living hell out of Austin (like they did during Delay's gerrymander) without it hurting the nearby districts.
Texas is already gerrymandered to immense proportions. At least one of the districts will be in the heavily Democratic areas along the border. The new districts at best for the GOP will be 3-1, and perhaps 2-2. With the growth in the Austin area, it will become a bit more difficult to carve the living hell out of Austin (like they did during Delay's gerrymander) without it hurting the nearby districts.
You do realize the democrats got a shellacking, don't you?
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