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Old 07-25-2013, 07:28 AM
 
10,545 posts, read 13,587,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
Greece, the US, all countries have money, corruption, social problems. Greece, the US. all countries go through periods of stress, economic, physical, war or otherwise. By giving up their monetary sovereignty Greece has forever altered how it can attack these stresses. They can no longer create money centrally to distribute to and help shore up peripheral weakness. They cannot fight a war. The only way they can survive without national bankruptcy is by cutting central services, programs and supports. Which then creates the basis for the circle around the economic drain. A country that is not the creator of its currency must then import their currency in order to grow. Either by trade or through investment. Greece has little hope in creating a large export sector. This is what Germany does, and why they succeed in the EU. But all the EU states cannot be winners like this at the same time. So when Greece joined the EU and then agreed in 6/2000 to peg its currency and then move to the Euro, it sealed its fate as a 'Greece'. Vs a USA.
Sure, other countries have those problems but not to the same extent. Greece had huge problems prior to the EU which is why they almost didn't get in; they had to meet particular benchmarks. They met those by adjusting the numbers and hiding debts, not by any fundamental progress. The EU was a strategy to try to bail them out of the mess they had already created and allowed them to borrow money at about 10% less interest than they had been paying previously because of their bad situation. This was a benefit but couldn't override their fundamental problems. They had government salaries at about 3 times that of the private sector - not sustainable. They had very lenient retirement standards. The essentially didn't collect taxes during election years. They had no realistic tax assessments. That had huge expenses that were not ever factored into their exploding debt so those numbers were not realistic. The EU didn't serve as the lifeline they hoped but it was because they were already in a disaster.
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Old 07-25-2013, 07:58 AM
 
8,091 posts, read 5,912,262 times
Reputation: 1578
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
Actually, since prices rising is the definition of inflation, prices not going up does mean inflation ISN'T happening.

Sorry, your view pure ignorance. The CPI measures items not by package size but by weight or liquid measure. Moreover, other indices that measure inflation in a completely different way come up with the same results.

MIT's Billion Price Index comes to mind.

The index nearly perfectly correlates to the CPI.

The idea that inconvenient numbers -- such as the CPI showing little or no inflation means it is fudged, because "we know" there is high inflation, points to cognitive dissonance instead of looking at reality and facts to form opinions.

I do find this a pattern on the right, when numbers discredit their closely held views, instead of questioning their beliefs, dismiss the numbers -- essentially doubling down on wrong.
There is no cognitive dissonance here...only denial on your end.

Look, we can argue semantics all you want...the issue here is it may not show inflation by the price sense...there HAS been plenty of monetary inflation.

And there is no recovery. Keynesian policies have wrecked the economy and prices simply have not reflected that. So you have inflation by way of prices maintaining "status quo"... but not even that.

Last quarter GDP goes down 1.78%

Consumer Metrics Institute: Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators

Last edited by Hot_Handz; 07-25-2013 at 08:08 AM..
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Old 07-25-2013, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,792 posts, read 13,951,723 times
Reputation: 5661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot_Handz View Post
There is no cognitive dissonance here...only denial on your end.

Look, we can argue semantics all you want...the issue here is it may not show inflation by the price sense...there HAS been plenty of monetary inflation.

And there is no recovery. Keynesian policies have wrecked the economy and prices simply have not reflected that. So you have inflation by way of prices maintaining "status quo"... but not even that.

Last quarter GDP goes down 1.78%

Consumer Metrics Institute: Home of Daily Consumer Leading Indicators
This is the definition of inflation:

Quote:
The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.
From: Inflation Definition | Investopedia
Oh, the last quarter GDP did not go down by 1.78%. It was revised to be 1.78%, which is in-line with Fed targets.

There is nothing called "monetary inflation." Inflation has to do with price levels, not the amount of money in circulation. Keynes was right when he said that increasing the money supply when the economy is in a liquidity trap is not inflationary. You can't just re-define terms to squeeze a round piece into a square hole. What people care about is prices not the money base.

As one can see, the monetary base has increased with no correlation to inflation:



To recap:

The nation has little inflation.
The nation has growth.
The budget deficit is falling.
Debt:GDP is stable.

Anyone who says that the U.S. is like Greece doesn't deserve to be taken seriously.
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Old 07-25-2013, 09:28 AM
 
11,086 posts, read 8,545,982 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goinback2011 View Post
Quiz for Dims: what would happen to commodity prices if the Fed stopped printing money?
I see none of the leftist geniuses can answer.
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Old 07-25-2013, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Chandler, AZ
5,800 posts, read 6,568,977 times
Reputation: 3151
When the package size of any grocery item is reduced but the price is not, that's inflation which the CPI fails to measure, and the BLS conveniently erases thanks to their unfettered use of the cop-out phrase 'seasonally adjust

The fact that food & energy prices aren't counted due to their 'volatility' (translation: a super-weak dollar send prices nowhere but up) is another lie from this Administration, and all going back to whomever started this absurd and blatantly dishonest method of reporting.

Auto prices, movie ticket prices and airfares have soared this year, which results in more inflation, and yields even more proof that CPI might as well stand for 'consistently proven irrelevant'.

The feds have been lying to us about the CPI for well over a decade, the phrase 'seasonally adjusted' is another cop-out & lie which needs to be banished forever.
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Old 07-25-2013, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,792 posts, read 13,951,723 times
Reputation: 5661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goinback2011 View Post
I see none of the leftist geniuses can answer.
All other things being equal, commodity prices often track movements in currency valuations. (They are more effected by demand of the actual commodity.)

Since increasing the money supply has not devalued the dollar, reducing the money supply would not increase the value of the dollar. Thus, no change in commodity prices.
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Old 07-25-2013, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,792 posts, read 13,951,723 times
Reputation: 5661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marv101 View Post
When the package size of any grocery item is reduced but the price is not, that's inflation which the CPI fails to measure, and the BLS conveniently erases thanks to their unfettered use of the cop-out phrase 'seasonally adjust

The fact that food & energy prices aren't counted due to their 'volatility' (translation: a super-weak dollar send prices nowhere but up) is another lie from this Administration, and all going back to whomever started this absurd and blatantly dishonest method of reporting.

Auto prices, movie ticket prices and airfares have soared this year, which results in more inflation, and yields even more proof that CPI might as well stand for 'consistently proven irrelevant'.

The feds have been lying to us about the CPI for well over a decade, the phrase 'seasonally adjusted' is another cop-out & lie which needs to be banished forever.
Ah. The "CPI is fudged" excuse. As I have shown on a previous post, other measures of inflation correlate with the CPI. It is not fudged. The BLS is run by career statisticians who run a formula. They don't change the numbers to accommodate any particular view. Also, anyone can reproduce the CPI's numbers.

Moreover, anyone can point to one or two items that rose while ignoring those that fell. Then there is the weight of those items. How much are movie tickets as a percentage your income?

On the dollar, before asserting that the dollar has declined, you may try to look at it. The dollar has not declined in recent years.
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Old 07-25-2013, 10:27 AM
 
8,091 posts, read 5,912,262 times
Reputation: 1578
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
This is the definition of inflation:



Oh, the last quarter GDP did not go down by 1.78%. It was revised to be 1.78%, which is in-line with Fed targets.
Did you READ the report??

Disposable income, per capita, is DOWN 9% with a savings rate of 3%..So that means spending is way down...

And you see the chart on imports...that is also way down...

then mortgages are WAYY up

Thinking About 5% Mortgages

So, how is this a recovery again?



Quote:
There is nothing called "monetary inflation." Inflation has to do with price levels, not the amount of money in circulation. Keynes was right when he said that increasing the money supply when the economy is in a liquidity trap is not inflationary. You can't just re-define terms to squeeze a round piece into a square hole. What people care about is prices not the money base.
Yes, you also cannot just pick and choose which definitions you choose to acknowledge and which ones to ignore. Just because "monetary inflation" isn't in the glossary of macroeconomics, doesn't mean there is no such thing.. There absolutely IS such a thing. You seem to forget that economics is still nothing but theory...

Quote:
As one can see, the monetary base has increased with no correlation to inflation:
You must not buy gas or food....



Quote:
To recap:

The nation has little inflation.
The nation has growth.
The budget deficit is falling.
Debt:GDP is stable.

Anyone who says that the U.S. is like Greece doesn't deserve to be taken seriously.
Where is the growth???
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Old 07-25-2013, 10:32 AM
 
8,091 posts, read 5,912,262 times
Reputation: 1578
In addition, why is the government handing out SS stipends for "cost of living" increases if there is no inflation?
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Old 07-25-2013, 10:57 AM
 
18,802 posts, read 8,474,425 times
Reputation: 4130
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot_Handz View Post
In addition, why is the government handing out SS stipends for "cost of living" increases if there is no inflation?
SS COLA has been low in line with nominal inflation. Low grade and chronic inflation is built into our general economic policy. In fact right now central policies are trying to inflate us a bit. The last thing we would want to see and experience in deflation. But you yourself above revealed the true problem. And that is the lack of wages keeping up with this built in inflation. And this is a whole other matter aside from simple money debasement inflation.
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