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Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates isn’t going to sugarcoat things: The increasing power of automation technology is going to put a lot of people out of work. Business Insider reports that Gates gave a talk at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, DC this week and said that both governments and businesses need to start preparing for a future where lots of people will be put out of work by software and robots.
“Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses… it’s progressing,” Gates said. “Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set… 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”
As for what governments should do to prevent social unrest in the wake of mass unemployment, the Microsoft cofounder said that they should basically get on their knees and beg businesses to keep employing humans over algorithms. This means perhaps eliminating payroll and corporate income taxes while also not raising the minimum wage so that businesses will feel comfortable employing people at dirt-cheap wages instead of outsourcing their jobs to an iPad.
And it’s not just “low-skilled” workers who will have to worry about automation. As Business Insider points out, The Economist earlier this year predicted that high-paying jobs such as accountants, real estate sales agents and commercial pilots would all lose their jobs to software within the next 20 years
This is not a revolutionary idea; it has been going on for decades. This is typical of Bill Gates, coming to the party late, lol. What most people don't take into account in their "mental models" are what effects the advent of advanced AIs will have on the world in 30-40 years. The changes that will be brought about in finance, production, problem-solving, innovation, equality/inequality, and resource allocation is going to drastically change how the world fundamentally works.
The really revolutionary thinking will be centered on what to do with hundreds of millions of redundant human workers.
Pelosi will tell you that you will be free to explore your passions without being tied to a job. Which will be really nice until the mortgage comes due at the start of the month............
historically, technology has never been correlated with increased unemployment. Look at the transition from horse to car that occurred in the US from about 1925-1945. Millions of jobs as farriers, harness-makers, etc. were destroyed.
If an 18 year old in 1930 decided to follow his dad into the farrier trade, he was in for a rude awakening. However, millions of jobs in Detroit, as well as mechanics, auto insurance agents, gas station clerks, car salesmen, car wash attendants....list goes on...were created, as if out of thin air.
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