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China will certainly slow down, because no country can keep the 10% growth for decades.
However it is still growing very fast compared to developed countries or other BRICS countries.
The sex ratio problem is not as bad as many people imagine. In fact there are still more women than men in big cities. Poor rural areas have much more men but those men won't have happy marriage in any case. The ratio is not really as high as in some other developing countries either.
China will certainly slow down, because no country can keep the 10% growth for decades.
However it is still growing very fast compared to developed countries or other BRICS countries.
The sex ratio problem is not as bad as many people imagine. In fact there are still more women than men in big cities. Poor rural areas have much more men but those men won't have happy marriage in any case. The ratio is not really as high as in some other developing countries either.
As China is beginning its turn its economy more toward its people, environment and personal consumption, and away from massive crony industry and infrastructure, their growth has to naturally decrease for some time.
China is not japan and that could be centuries with their population and income levels especially in the rural areas. That Japan even became a major producer after WWII is a miracle. Best hope not because China and Japan are to huge holders of US debt; remember.
As China is beginning its turn its economy more toward its people, environment and personal consumption, and away from massive crony industry and infrastructure, their growth has to naturally decrease for some time.
China. I don't think that the observer is correct. China will end up like China. China has always looked in not out. Once in a long while they look out briefly then they just look back in again.
China. I don't think that the observer is correct. China will end up like China. China has always looked in not out. Once in a long while they look out briefly then they just look back in again.
Or not.
I think China has learned much from the West, and now looks to The East as to what to not do.
And like you say, 'Or not'. There will be many ifs, ands or buts along the way.
Unlike Japan, China suffers from many more serious problems. Deep poverty of millions. A dictatorship that needs to rule a huge country with a population of 1.25B. Different regions that aren't really tied together. Tibet.
Japan didn't suffer from these. In my opinion, China may implode sooner or later with unknown consequences.
The real problem with the one-child rule is that an overwhelming percentage of those children are male. 15 to 20 years down the road, with huge numbers of men who can't find wives, girlfriends or jobs, China's in for some serious problems.
So they'll have to marry outside of their ethnicity?
Don't see a real problem there. We've been doing that for a while now.
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Unlike Japan, China suffers from many more serious problems. Deep poverty of millions. A dictatorship that needs to rule a huge country with a population of 1.25B. Different regions that aren't really tied together. Tibet.
Japan didn't suffer from these. In my opinion, China may implode sooner or later with unknown consequences.
Forget about imploding, not even Japan imploded.
What is likely to happen is that China will eventually stagnate, probably at a lower level than Japan stagnated.
Secondly, China dependency ratio is still low. China dependency ratio is 37, while Sweden is 57 and Japan is 62.
Thirdly, its not a bad thing that the working age population is dropping. The Chinese economy hasn't been developed yet, and there are many unproductive jobs. Fewer young adults means companies will need to increase wages, and hence they will need to make their systems more efficient.
It is all about replacement level birthrates. Just because the population "appears" to be increasing, one must, as in chess, look a couple of moves ahead. A birthrate of 1.4 in NOWHERE near replacement level. 100 years from now, when the population starts dropping precipitously, then what?
Well by then, the machines will have become so efficient that we humans become irrelevant.
It's a post apocalyptic world that the greatest of sci fi writers never imagined!
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