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Yeah, I don't see how Israel's election really matters much to American politics. Though it would be nice to finally see American right wingers jumping on the universal healthcare bandwagon like all the other conservative parties in the world.
In all honesty universal healthcare would be winning idea. A real healthcare plan, better then the ACA....
But the big medical insurance companies would go ballistic. I don't think the republicans have the uh....fortitude....to do that.
Actually the OP does have a point, conservative and center-right parties are on the rise in much of the West.
UK - Conservative Party
Canada - Conservative Party
Australia - Liberal Party (classical liberals ie: modern conservatives)
New Zealand - National Party
Israel - Likud
Germany - CDU
Netherlands - VVD
Ireland - Fine Gael
Spain - Popular Party
Japan - LDP
All of the above are center-right or conservative political parties.
Now in the United States, demographics are not on our (the GOP's) side unless we change our tune in respect to Hispanics. By 2042 Hispanics will make a third of the US population making it impossible for us win without attracting significant numbers of minorities.
This is a good post, but I have a few reservations with "the rise of the center-right parties" mantra.
The LDP has ruled Japan since the early 1950s, with only two brief interruptions: shortly after the 1990 economic crash, when all of the opposition non-Communist parties teamed up to win a majority in the National Diet, and from 2009-2012, when the Democrats won a majority in a repudiation of the LDP. However, the LDP is in power and they have a huge majority at the moment, so I'll give you that.
(Yes, the Communist Party is actually a pretty major force in Japanese politics. They actually increased their number of seats in the December election.)
I'll give you the (UK) Tories, although there's an election in May (we'll see what UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and Labour do,) and their current position is nowhere near that of the 1980s Thatcherite Tories. Things aren't looking too good for both the Tories and Labour, but we'll see. I'd especially keep an eye on the left-leaning nationalist SNP, as they're poised to destroy Labour in Scotland and could become the kingmaker in this election.
Canada has an election in October, and bill C-51 (Canada's PATRIOT Act) has created a LOT of controversy and anger against the CPC and Justin Trudeau's Liberals. However, the CPC is in a bit of a better position than the UK Tories, even if its partners suffered a defeat in Ontario last year, and if only because of the possibility that an NDP/Liberal split vote would lead to a CPC win. Quebec's....complicated, as there's no real "right-wing" anywhere near being in power there, just that the federal leftists (Quebec Liberals) beat the nationalist leftists (PQ) in last year's election.
In Spain, the People's Party did win a huge majority in the 2011 elections, but a sluggish economy and a few affairs led to a collapse in support for the 2014 European elections. The opinion polls for the October/December elections has the PP tied with the left-wing Podemos party.
The Coalition (Liberals-Nationals) in Australia won in 2013 as a repudiation of the Labor Party, but Tony Abbott nowadays is NOT popular in Australia. He managed to survive a leadership contest earlier this year, but his coalition has suffered defeats to center-left parties in state elections in Victoria and Queensland in the last year.
I would argue that the situation in the Netherlands isn't really "a rise" in the right-wing, as the VVD is in government...but in a coalition with the socialist PvdA. I'd call the Dutch situation "centrist", if anything.
Ireland and Germany have grand coalitions between Fine Gael/Labour and CSU/CSU/SPD, respectively. Germany's policies right now are center-right, while I'd generally say the same for Ireland, even if it's not quite as conclusive on my end.
Finally, we come to Israel. The proportional representation system used in Israel produces a situation where no party can obtain the 61 seats needed for a majority on their own. Hence, after every election, it's a matter of seeing who can build their coalitions first and get the President to sign off on the appointment of the Prime Minister. Netanyahu's in a much better position than Herzog right now, but the President has made indications that he does favor a national unity government. I strongly bet that Netanyahu would remain PM in any case.
So in short, we have:
- Canada: CPC majority; election in October; party suffered setback in Ontario in 2014
- Australia: LNP majority; party suffered setbacks in Queensland and Victoria in 2014 and in January, respectively; Prime Minister Tony Abbott managed to survive a leadership spill earlier this year
- UK: CON majority; election in May; polling suggests failure for the three major parties (Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems); the leftist-nationalist SNP may end up as the kingmaker
- Japan: Agreed. Huge LDP-Komeito majority, despite Communist gains
- Spain: PP majority; election in the fall; huge setback in the 2014 EU elections; tied in opinion polls with the left-leaning Podemos party
- New Zealand: Agreed. National Party majority; no signs of left-wing momentum
- Netherlands: VVD-PvdA coalition; centrist as can be
- Germany: Agreed. CDU/CSU grand coalition with the SPD, but I'd still classify Merkel's policies right now as centre-right/right
- Ireland: Agreed. Fine Gael/Labour grand coalition, but I'd still classify Enda Kenny's policies as centre-right
- Israel: Agreed. A Likud/Orthodox party coalition is likely, maybe a national unity government, but Bibi will likely maintain his post
Finally, many of the center-right parties you posted are generally more socially liberal and fiscally moderate than the current GOP (outside of the Northeast). Most of them support some form of universal healthcare, something that the vast majority of the GOP is against and Obamacare doesn't deliver.
The far-right is on the rise in Europe, however. Just look at UKIP, France's National Front, Jobbik, and Fidesz, for starters.
Its been a "extremely false" assumption thats held true for a while now, and is listed in the Republican reviews of past issues as a critical one.
So apparently I have something in common with Republican strategists.....according to you we are both wrong.
You're using the past and present to justify your opinions about the future. YOU were the one who said changing demographics would ruin the GOP. Do you have the election returns from 2016, 2018, and 2020? Didn't think you did.
It sucks that the Democrat's only hope for survival is to play race politics: that card is starting to get old now though. EVENTUALLY, Democrats have to actually govern. The GOP is the party of bad and good ideas, but at least we have some giid ideas; the Democrats are the party of bad ideas. Race and gender will only take you so far until people expect their roads to be paved, their taxes to be accounted for, etc. This is why Massachusetts and Maryland have Republican governors: they stuck to their beliefs and took moderate non-religious approaches to social issues.
Actually the OP does have a point, conservative and center-right parties are on the rise in much of the West.
UK - Conservative Party
Canada - Conservative Party
Australia - Liberal Party (classical liberals ie: modern conservatives)
New Zealand - National Party
Israel - Likud
Germany - CDU
Netherlands - VVD
Ireland - Fine Gael
Spain - Popular Party
Japan - LDP
All of the above are center-right or conservative political parties.
And, save for Likud, each of those is far to the left of the Democratic Party here in the US. Could you imagine the calls of "communism" and gnashing of teeth if Democrats were anywhere close to the CDU or VVD?
This is a good post, but I have a few reservations with "the rise of the center-right parties" mantra.
The LDP has ruled Japan since the early 1950s, with only two brief interruptions: shortly after the 1990 economic crash, when all of the opposition non-Communist parties teamed up to win a majority in the National Diet, and from 2009-2012, when the Democrats won a majority in a repudiation of the LDP. However, the LDP is in power and they have a huge majority at the moment, so I'll give you that.
(Yes, the Communist Party is actually a pretty major force in Japanese politics. They actually increased their number of seats in the December election.)
I'll give you the (UK) Tories, although there's an election in May (we'll see what UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and Labour do,) and their current position is nowhere near that of the 1980s Thatcherite Tories. Things aren't looking too good for both the Tories and Labour, but we'll see. I'd especially keep an eye on the left-leaning nationalist SNP, as they're poised to destroy Labour in Scotland and could become the kingmaker in this election.
Canada has an election in October, and bill C-51 (Canada's PATRIOT Act) has created a LOT of controversy and anger against the CPC and Justin Trudeau's Liberals. However, the CPC is in a bit of a better position than the UK Tories, even if its partners suffered a defeat in Ontario last year, and if only because of the possibility that an NDP/Liberal split vote would lead to a CPC win. Quebec's....complicated, as there's no real "right-wing" anywhere near being in power there, just that the federal leftists (Quebec Liberals) beat the nationalist leftists (PQ) in last year's election.
In Spain, the People's Party did win a huge majority in the 2011 elections, but a sluggish economy and a few affairs led to a collapse in support for the 2014 European elections. The opinion polls for the October/December elections has the PP tied with the left-wing Podemos party.
The Coalition (Liberals-Nationals) in Australia won in 2013 as a repudiation of the Labor Party, but Tony Abbott nowadays is NOT popular in Australia. He managed to survive a leadership contest earlier this year, but his coalition has suffered defeats to center-left parties in state elections in Victoria and Queensland in the last year.
I would argue that the situation in the Netherlands isn't really "a rise" in the right-wing, as the VVD is in government...but in a coalition with the socialist PvdA. I'd call the Dutch situation "centrist", if anything.
Ireland and Germany have grand coalitions between Fine Gael/Labour and CSU/CSU/SPD, respectively. Germany's policies right now are center-right, while I'd generally say the same for Ireland, even if it's not quite as conclusive on my end.
Finally, we come to Israel. The proportional representation system used in Israel produces a situation where no party can obtain the 61 seats needed for a majority on their own. Hence, after every election, it's a matter of seeing who can build their coalitions first and get the President to sign off on the appointment of the Prime Minister. Netanyahu's in a much better position than Herzog right now, but the President has made indications that he does favor a national unity government. I strongly bet that Netanyahu would remain PM in any case.
So in short, we have:
- Canada: CPC majority; election in October; party suffered setback in Ontario in 2014
- Australia: LNP majority; party suffered setbacks in Queensland and Victoria in 2014 and in January, respectively; Prime Minister Tony Abbott managed to survive a leadership spill earlier this year
- UK: CON majority; election in May; polling suggests failure for the three major parties (Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems); the leftist-nationalist SNP may end up as the kingmaker
- Japan: Agreed. Huge LDP-Komeito majority, despite Communist gains
- Spain: PP majority; election in the fall; huge setback in the 2014 EU elections; tied in opinion polls with the left-leaning Podemos party
- New Zealand: Agreed. National Party majority; no signs of left-wing momentum
- Netherlands: VVD-PvdA coalition; centrist as can be
- Germany: Agreed. CDU/CSU grand coalition with the SPD, but I'd still classify Merkel's policies right now as centre-right/right
- Ireland: Agreed. Fine Gael/Labour grand coalition, but I'd still classify Enda Kenny's policies as centre-right
- Israel: Agreed. A Likud/Orthodox party coalition is likely, maybe a national unity government, but Bibi will likely maintain his post
Finally, many of the center-right parties you posted are generally more socially liberal and fiscally moderate than the current GOP (outside of the Northeast). Most of them support some form of universal healthcare, something that the vast majority of the GOP is against and Obamacare doesn't deliver.
The far-right is on the rise in Europe, however. Just look at UKIP, France's National Front, Jobbik, and Fidesz, for starters.
- skbl17
From what I gather it seems UK Labour has ruled out a coalition with the SNP. Milliband flat out said that "there will be nobody who wants to break up the UK in my government". IMO I think the most likely outcome will be Conservatives + UKIP + Ulster unionists forming a coalition. UKIP will, of course, make the support contingent on Cameron's promised EU in/out referendum.
In the past 3 elections Likud (Netanyahu) has has 21-23% of the vote - hardly "a growing conservative tidal wave".
This must be the Leftist Talking Point of the day - I've read it a.t least 30 times this morning so far. It's exactly the same Leftist Talking Point that President Stompy-Foot used to explain how he really won the 2014 Mid-Terms ....
the Leftist counts the votes NOT cast, instead of the votes cast by the voters at the polls. This is the world in the Left Bubble.
There are 13 Political Parties in Israel that hold seats in the Knesset (Parliament) - Netanyahu leads the Likud Party, which won 30 seats out of 120 (final count issued today). That's exactly 25% for one party out of 13, in fact NO party has ever hit the 50% mark in the elections.
Leftists don't seem to understand how a Parliamentary system works and have a very Bizarre attitude about what a WIN in an election actually is ..... here's a hint, it doesn't mean the people not voted for actually are the "winners".
I don't think Netanyahu's win has anything to do with Economics this election (or his previous elections) - Economics are important, but they don't mean much if you are bombed out of existence.
It was a Security Election - not a Conservative viewpoint election.
I think its a mistake to confuse Israel's results, with the united states.
Really? One big issue in the Israeli election was security. That is also an issue here in the US. We are not safer than we were in 2008 by any stretch of the imagination. Obama's policies were on the ballot in November. Netanyahu took a stand on security issues, and those issues were what drove him to victory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar
Demographics matter, and are rapidly turning against the Republican party.
Really? Where?
Come on! You're not being honest, even with yourself. Republicans made big gains across the board, as Americans rejected the Leftist ideology that is driving us over the cliff, and placing us in grave danger.
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar
I do not believe we have a wave of change coming for Republicans. Quite the opposite given the demographic changes. BUT....It really will depend on who they have for candidates.
You're delusional. Wake up and smell the coffee.
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