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For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".
Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.
For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".
Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.
They don't know squat!
Are you saying you don't know the difference between short term weather and long term climate change?
Are you saying you don't know the difference between short term weather and long term climate change?
I think he's saying the scientists who can't program a model to accurately predict a short-term weather event with few variables can't be trusted to predict long-term climate change that relies on thousands of variables including incomplete datasets, proxy data, extrapolated data, as well as some giant WAG factor. Natural variability, for example, is not included in any of the major long-term models. Weird.
How accurate would a sportscaster be if he/she had to predict who was going to win in the next few days? How accurate would the newsanchor be if they had to predict how many people would get shot or what liquor store would get robbed?
Well maybe you should move to the U.S. Our national weather service is pretty decent despite not having quite as good a weather model as the Europeans. They aren't 100%, but nothing is, especially something as complex as the weather. Fortunately the NWS and the other parts of NOAA that spew the global warming garbage are pretty separate so the forecasts aren't tainted by the unscientific gore-garbage.
I think he's saying the scientists who can't program a model to accurately predict a short-term weather event with few variables can't be trusted to predict long-term climate change that relies on thousands of variables including incomplete datasets, proxy data, extrapolated data, as well as some giant WAG factor. Natural variability, for example, is not included in any of the major long-term models. Weird.
Weird. Where did you get the idea that natural variability is not included in any of the major long-term models?
How accurate would a sportscaster be if he/she had to predict who was going to win in the next few days? How accurate would the newsanchor be if they had to predict how many people would get shot or what liquor store would get robbed?
Neither of those two items are based in science, they can be ballparked using statistics and other forms of analysis. Weather on the other hand is MUCH more scientific in nature and predictability.
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