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I did find this from Swonk in 2016 regarding both Clinton and Trump economic plans:
SWONK: It's a real quagmire out there because it's a scapegoat. Trade is an easy catchall, and there are problems with trade. We failed to educate for over four decades people to fill the kind of jobs we're going to generate in an economy that's globalized. That is a huge short-falling on our part. And what we need to do going forward is think about trade in that context, but not just throw out the baby with the bathwater. And the concern is that anything that we do to sort of rip up these agreements will disrupt trade and disrupt our economies, even further costing us jobs instead of really curing what the real problem is.
Of which I do agree.
Excellent point. One of the things that drove our economy in the post WWII era was that our education system was much better than others, including Europe. Now we are mid-pack at best. Canada ranks about 20 spots ahead of us on PISA testing. This, even though we are close to the top in per/pupil spending.
A group of 10 economists predict a decline in growth back to 2.4%. The factors cited are the trade wars, the interest rate hikes by the fed, and the fading impact of Trump's tax cuts.
Trump's chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, is singing a different tune. He says that recession is so far in the distance that he "can't see it."
We'll see who is right. Hopefully, for the sake of the nation, Kudlow is right.
Yes, thanks for posting this. I've been hearing this, too. I wonder, if we do end up in another recession, if Trump will continue to deny it. Kudlow is not considered to be a "top" economist, you know.
Excellent point. One of the things that drove our economy in the post WWII era was that our education system was much better than others, including Europe. Now we are mid-pack at best. Canada ranks about 20 spots ahead of us on PISA testing. This, even though we are close to the top in per/pupil spending.
There's no correlation between spending and outcomes.
Dozens and dozens of countries spend one-tenth to one-half what the US spends and get better outcomes.
Most of the money spent on education in the US goes to administration and social-welfare programs, which does nothing to alter outcomes.
Outcomes can only be altered through curriculum and quality of instruction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Originalist
IN the same article; Gary Schilling (the only named economist I've heard of) is saying if there is a recession it'll be because of the Fed rate hikes.
He's correct, and it wouldn't be the first time the Federal Reserve caused a recession through rate hikes.
The first time was the 1952-1953 Recession.
Rate hikes increase the costs of both continued business operations and expansion of business operations, which is what puts the brakes on the economy.
There's no correlation between spending and outcomes.
Dozens and dozens of countries spend one-tenth to one-half what the US spends and get better outcomes.
Most of the money spent on education in the US goes to administration and social-welfare programs, which does nothing to alter outcomes.
Outcomes can only be altered through curriculum and quality of instruction.
He's correct, and it wouldn't be the first time the Federal Reserve caused a recession through rate hikes.
The first time was the 1952-1953 Recession.
Rate hikes increase the costs of both continued business operations and expansion of business operations, which is what puts the brakes on the economy.
But shouldn't the price of money reflect the real price of money?
Let me ask you and others here a question. If you have an IRA and were able to lend it to your neighbors for a 30 year mortgage, how much would you charge them in interest?
Same question - you have money and want to lend it to a neighbor for buying a car - a 60 month loan. What type of return would you be looking for based on decent credit on both transactions?
The job of the Government is not to give you or businesses free or cheap money - except perhaps in an emergency. Now it seems we have an entire generation that things otherwise.
What happened to "free markets"? Why shouldn't I be able to get a fair return for my money instead of having the government undercut me with fake rates?
Don't they make the same prediction every few months?
If you make the prediction often enough, sooner or later you will get it right. Sort of like the blind squirrel finding a nut. As someone who studied economics for a long, long time.....I can tell you they are wrong a very high percentage of the time.
If you make the prediction often enough, sooner or later you will get it right. Sort of like the blind squirrel finding a nut. As someone who studied economics for a long, long time.....I can tell you they are wrong a very high percentage of the time.
Most of them have interests (paymasters) and so aren't telling the truth even if they suspect it.
Some things are basic common sense. We do know that we've expended all our ammo with the wars and recession (still feeling it...or at least feeding the recovery), so the well is largely dry at this point.
Very little in the toolbox or rainy day fund and less each day as we are not nearly paying the bills.
The market went nowhere this year. Wages for the average consumer are up about 1% or less after inflation, not exactly a figure that is going to get all of us buying high end iphones or cars.
We do know that trump has created uncertainty and chaos in trade with his tariffs.
What the study of economics cannot do is put all of those and 100 other metrics in a box and properly assign weighting to them in order to conclude...anything.
We each live and die and the real "economics" involves whether it crashes down before we pay for our funerals.
That may sound like a strange statement but I am relating it to experience - it's amazing how so many people don't know what got us to this point. New generations come along and they don't know about massive movements such as:
Nixon Shock
Two Oil Shocks
S&L Crisis
Enron and others - and Dot-Com Crash.
Many current adults only know about the Great Recession....if that.
Our system, IMHO, is shakier than ever and relies 100% on trust now...and on a relatively small number of bankers and financiers.
It would seem that the odds are longer for a stable economy than for all the other possibilities. But maybe we are already there...if you ask a lot of Americans their economy has already failed.
My take - proven by a number of personal experiences with friends, families and others - is that a lot of our economy (that is, the consumer economy and you and I staying afloat) is due to money and property (cars, money, real estate, etc.) passed down from a generation or two ago (our parents).
At some point that might run out.
I come from the Main Line of Philadelphia - a place known for a lot of "old money". These people made their money as industrialist, importers and many other such things. Most of the families I knew from there who had this old wealth simply don't have it any longer - like the way the vanderbilts and other eventually squandered all the inheritances.
Maybe we will be saved by Tech and Biotech creating new wealth. Who knows?
I love when Democrats wish for bad things to happen to America. It shows who they really are.
Democrats simply know what happens when ever Republicans run the economy. After the short term sugar rush of ill planned tax cuts, the bills come calling. The deficit explodes, and you then elect Democrats to clean up the mess. But one day the Republicans will demage the infrastructure so badly there will be no repair possible.
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