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If it goes to 100...sorry to say, but there will be no more elections, and the world we know will end, the US will be like a scene from the Walking dead, (without the zombies), but the living will be much more dangerous then!
If the market crashes in modern times, there will be no coming back, everything is hanging on by a thread as is. tipped over the edge, it would never recover.
Freak80 likes to make satirical posts. What's even funnier than his posts are when you all don't even get that's he's joking.
I have been thinking it will land at around 20K, so I picked 22,000.
The bulk of my portfolio is in income producing real estate, so I don't have much of a dog in this fight. I have a large investment in a fund that tracks the S&P, but that has a ceiling of 12% and a floor of 0%, so while people were making 20% or 30%, I was only making 12%, but the trade off is that in years like this, the worst that can happen is that I break even.
My 3 529s are getting hit though, as is my relatively small 401k.
If it hits 20,000 you might want to switch much of your assets to the stock market, because that will be a huge buying opportunity.
I also think funds that guarantee that you won't lose money are a scam. I had one for a while, then I figured out that the guaranteed balance was only what I would collect if I die. If I tried to cash out I would not get that much money. Think about it: how can a fund guarantee to pay back your principal when the investments underlaying that principal have declined in value?
They'll fall even more if they keep pushing a raise in capital gains taxes. Saw one report they want a 43 percent capital gains tax for the 'rich' but the rich include fund managers who would get taxed on dividends at 43 percent. Many funds/managers have retirement accounts/clients.
All I know is money is still circulating very well, so someone must be making money from the low interest.
We're beseiged by so many different problems- a stubborn pandemic, a major war in Europe, and a sundry of problems that come from a divided democracy, I"m not sure looking backward to history is going to inform us much of anything about the near future.
There's plenty of stuff for some folks to holler "The sky is falling!" for sure.
I think that this current drop in the stock market is a very good time to buy some stock at a bargain.
So I'll watch out, and I'll believe the sky is falling when a piece of it actually lands as evidence.
The gloomy gonna feel doomy. I'm not gloomy. Believe as you will.
You better buy as many shares as you can, Mike! Buy the dips!
This may be the "opportunity of a lifetime" for you to make a killing!
I am amazed that people fail to appreciate a few things, as they have been conditioned to a market that always goes up.
1. The stratospheric rise in the markets was fueled my massive infusions of cash into the markets by the fed and unheard of low interest rates.
2. We have rising interest rates
3. We have record inflation
4. We are on the brink of a recession
5. Citizens have record debt
6. QE cannot be used to "save" the markets, as we have record inflation
7. We are seeing the end of a housing bubble
So........................................ all the tailwinds that drove the markets to a Schiller P/E of 2.5X historic averages have now turned and are headwinds.
While markets can inexplicably rise and defy "logic", the prevailing forces are driving markets down. When interest rates rise, investors seek other investments which finally have a higher, fixed rate of return.
We are in a financial jam and now with interest rates so low and high inflation, the Fed can't do anything to save the markets now. When bear markets happen, markets go BELOW historic P/E levels (relative to prevailing interest rates) before a bottom can happen. A Dow of 15- 16,000 would put us at "par" for P/E ratios.
Recessions tend to last 6-18 months. Depressions last longer. We were at P/E and CAPE levels higher than 1929, but not as high as 2008. Bubbles like the current one cannot go on forever, as we are seeing now. How low this market goes is anyone's guess, as predictions in markets often make everyone look like a fool!
For the sake of all the people with their savings at risk, let us hope that any correction will be mild and merciful. The average citizen is (and will be) punished enough by the insanity of Biden and do not deserve what the democrats are doing to them.
Last edited by hawkeye2009; 05-22-2022 at 08:44 AM..
If it hits 20,000 you might want to switch much of your assets to the stock market, because that will be a huge buying opportunity.
I also think funds that guarantee that you won't lose money are a scam. I had one for a while, then I figured out that the guaranteed balance was only what I would collect if I die. If I tried to cash out I would not get that much money. Think about it: how can a fund guarantee to pay back your principal when the investments underlaying that principal have declined in value?
I don't plan on cashing out until I die. I plan on borrowing against it every year in my retirement. It is tied to a whole life policy in my irrevocable trust that I overfund, so I can pay back the loan after I am dead and the policy is cashed out. It's a great investment vehicle because I will save a lot in taxes. I have watched it grow exponentially over the years, and it never falls below baseline when the market drops.
As to the market buying opportunity, I have a plan set up for that too.
Late to respond, but I watch the Dow almost daily. Since January 4th, it's dropped over 5,500 Points, and I feel like this is just the beginning. I picked a conservative 22 in the poll.
The DJIA will need to officially enter bear country along with the NASDAQ and SP500. That's below 29,562 or so.
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