How far will the markets fall? (premium, death, crimes, insurance)

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by hawkeye2009

So any guesses about where the DOW bottoms out?

Who cares?

Real investors write promissory notes.

Originally Posted by Taratova

Fact is the Fed pumped in over 8 trillion dollars into the stock market and they are now taking it out.

Not on this planet.

Originally Posted by ClaraC

If the Dow falls to 100, freak, there won't be any market or economy left, to "immediately" to go 100K

Stock markets are optional.

They are not a requirement for any successful economy.

Stocks are simply one additional way in addition a dozen other ways certain specific types of business organizations -- namely publicly-traded corporations -- can raise Capital.

Only 3% of US businesses are publicly-traded corporations and they only employ 5.8% of the work-force so if they disappeared nothing would happen very slowly.

For those who failed 4th Grade Math, that means that 97% of US businesses do not sell stocks because they are not publicly-traded corporations and they employ 94.2% of the work-force.

There are plenty of small, medium and large non-corporate businesses ready to step into the shoes of the small fraction of businesses that are corporations.

And, in spite of your fantasies, the Free Market always exists.

That's why Black Markets exist, because you cannot stop the Free Market from operating.

[RcHydro]

Originally Posted by ClaraC

Yes, I do think he's serious.

As I think most on this board predicting the end to America as we know it in the next couple years.

Yep, the sky is falling. Some folks really cant handle a crisis.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by andywire

I merely said Joey's defenders will ignore it, and you proved my wrong for once by responding.

Originally Posted by michiganmoon

You seem to have shifted in other threads from denying government numbers on the bad economy to sarcasm. Not a bad strategy considering Biden is indefensible.

As much as I hate Joe Hiden, there's nothing to defend.

Presidents only control foreign policy. Presidents have no control over Geo-Political Strategy. The Bureaucracy is the only entity that controls Geo-Political Strategy.

Even if Hiden shouted "Drill, baby, drill!" whilst being sworn in, it would change nothing.

We do not live in a mouse-click world. It isn't click the mouse a few times and oil's on the market.

It's 4-8 years from test drill to market. Get over it already.

Which part of C8 do you people not understand? C8 is Octane. That's what gasoline is.

Canadian Tar Sands is C30+. That's why it's tar. Get it? C24 to C28 is your heavy oils. Yeah, there's some C8 in there but not enough to keep gasoline prices below $7-$10/gallon.

Intermediate grade oils have C8, too, but not enough to keep gasoline prices below $5/gallon.

That's why you were importing Siberian Light from Russia.

Every barrel of Siberian Light is 24 gallons of gasoline. That's why you import light oils.

Which part of "Federal law prohibits the export of raw crude oils" do you not understand?

All of you rail against OPEC but you've been the problem for the past 50 years.

The global oil market is all the world's oil minus US oil.

Again for the little brains: Federal law bars you from selling US raw crude oil on the world market.

The week of May 13 you were exporting 957,000 barrels of gasoline per day.


957,000 barrels * 7 days * 42 gallons = 281,358,000 gallons of finished gasoline

Just 9 days ago you exported 281 Million gallons of gasoline over a period of 7 days.


Why are you exporting 281 Million gallons of gasoline when gas prices are $4.50/gallon?



Doh!

I just told you why. Your oil sucks and you're not allowed to export raw crude oil.

Every barrel of oil you pull out of the ground must by federal law be refined in the US before export.

That gasoline is mostly Louisiana Sour (a light oil) and East Texas Sour (an intermediate oil) and both are full of Sulfur so you cannot use it in the US, which is why you export it.

Question: Do you have the refining capacity to handle increased crude oil production

Answer: No.

Increasing US oil production will not lower global oil prices, since US oil is forbidden from being sold on the world market. It does affect domestic crude oil prices.

What does impact the global oil market is the amount of oil you can refine.

Hiden did not shut down the economies of the States that led the supply chain crisis that is causing rampant Demand-pull Inflation.

Hiden was forced to cut off Siberian Light from Russia, because if he does not, then you crucify him for not cutting it off.

Why can't you import Hibernia Blend from Canada?

I've explained this 100x at least.

Most of your gasoline refineries are set up for API 38°-42° to run WTI, Brent Blend, Arab Light, Murban, and Forties Blend.

When the Citgo refinery isn't running Tijuana Light from Venezuela, it's running Dubai or West Texas Sour (for export.)

Refineries cannot refine any oil they freaking feel like refining.

It's called the Laws of Physics. Look into it.

You only got 5 refineries that can refine Hibernia Blend and 3 of them are in Kansas.

The oil platforms are off the Labrador coast. Good luck getting the oil to Kansas.

In the last 10 years, you went from 167 refineries to 122.

What did Trump do about that? Nothing, because he wasted time fussing over Keystone when he should have been figuring out how to build more refineries, increase capacity of existing refineries or realigning your refineries.

The primary reason those refineries shut down is because they couldn't get the oil they needed.

What?

Didn't we just do the whole API/Laws of Physics thing?

If you can't get the oil you need or if the oil is garbage and you can't export/sell the refined products, then common sense says you shut down.

You wanna install new stills to refine different oils?

That's 5-6 years and you're gonna need money from investors.

Your grandma might pony up the money but smart investors won't.

Governors caused the supply chain crisis leading to Demand-pull Inflation. That's not Hiden's fault and it's not the Federal Reserve's fault.

If you can't get what you need, you seek substitutes, but if you have supply chain issues, then you have more Demand-pull Inflation. That's not Hiden's fault nor the Federal Reserve's fault.

Gas/diesel prices are Demand-pull Inflation. That creates Cost-push Inflation which drives prices up higher. Not Hiden's fault and not the Federal Reserve's fault.

You want government to do something?

Well, it'll take 6 months to collect the data and 6-12 months to analyze it and then another 6 months to formulate some kind of policy and by that time the crisis has passed.

That's why government is lame.

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Once gas hits 10+ a gal pals it's all over rover.

Not gonna happen. It'll be rationed long before it gets that high to keep prices lower.

Originally Posted by 16 Acres

Late to respond, but I watch the Dow almost daily. Since January 4th, it's dropped over 5,500 Points, and I feel like this is just the beginning. I picked a conservative 22 in the poll.

Wow, a whole 13%. Panic much?

To educate you properly, the 3 worst crashes never exceed 48% and during those 3 crashes the economy was humming along at 2.5% to 12.5% GDP per quarter.

Obviously, you're oblivious to the fact that during many recessions, the stock market routinely set daily or weekly record highs.

When did the stock market recover 100% from the 1929 crash and then start setting record highs?

Oh, that was during the 1960-61 Recession.

Oooops....

Seeing how you don't understand stocks or economics, you should probably refrain from investing.

[hawkeye2009]

Originally Posted by Mircea

Who cares?

Real investors write promissory notes.



Not on this planet.



Stock markets are optional.

They are not a requirement for any successful economy.

Stocks are simply one additional way in addition a dozen other ways certain specific types of business organizations -- namely publicly-traded corporations -- can raise Capital.

Only 3% of US businesses are publicly-traded corporations and they only employ 5.8% of the work-force so if they disappeared nothing would happen very slowly.

For those who failed 4th Grade Math, that means that 97% of US businesses do not sell stocks because they are not publicly-traded corporations and they employ 94.2% of the work-force.

There are plenty of small, medium and large non-corporate businesses ready to step into the shoes of the small fraction of businesses that are corporations.

And, in spite of your fantasies, the Free Market always exists.

That's why Black Markets exist, because you cannot stop the Free Market from operating.

The reason that stock markets matter is that the majority of wealth and retirement funds for average Americans (not the ultra rich) are tied up in the stock market.

You are right about the percentage of businesses that are publicly traded. That is not the point at all. The point is that the average American does not have large real estate holdings nor personally own large stakes in businesses. Their avenue of investment has been the markets and they are in jeopardy.

All of our medical staff in our clinic (and hospital) have their retirement and most additional savings they have accumulated in the markets. The only exception is an heiress we have as a nurse (why she is working, I do not know) who has a vast amount of wealth in ownership of a large hotel chain in the US and real estate holdings with very little investment in the stock market. That is a very peculiar exception- most of the rest of Americans who have ANY SAVINGS have those in the markets.

[16 Acres]

Originally Posted by Mircea

Wow, a whole 13%. Panic much?

To educate you properly, the 3 worst crashes never exceed 48% and during those 3 crashes the economy was humming along at 2.5% to 12.5% GDP per quarter.

Obviously, you're oblivious to the fact that during many recessions, the stock market routinely set daily or weekly record highs.

When did the stock market recover 100% from the 1929 crash and then start setting record highs?

Oh, that was during the 1960-61 Recession.

Oooops....

Seeing how you don't understand stocks or economics, you should probably refrain from investing.

Get a grip. You are taking my simple comment way too seriously...

[Leo58]

Originally Posted by AnesthesiaMD

I don't plan on cashing out until I die. I plan on borrowing against it every year in my retirement. It is tied to a whole life policy in my irrevocable trust that I overfund, so I can pay back the loan after I am dead and the policy is cashed out. It's a great investment vehicle because I will save a lot in taxes. I have watched it grow exponentially over the years, and it never falls below baseline when the market drops.

As to the market buying opportunity, I have a plan set up for that too.

Insurance is insurance and investments are investments, and never the twain shall meet.

[WalkingLiberty1919D]

Well, it won't be 26K because that's what I picked and I am always wrong about these things. haha.

This is an interesting thread for me. I just sold my house and plan on investing the money this week in one lump sum. So I am kind of reading a lot about what's going on currently in the market and such, I guess just for the fun of it since what I read most likely won't change my plans. I've been invested in the market for decades (it's where my IRA and 401k mostly are). But I just invest a little each month and forget it except for once a year when I re-balance my desired asset allocation. I'm a pretty simple long-term investor. So in the end, daily, weekly, and to a degree yearly ups and downs are just noise to me.

I am investing the money for 10+ years so I am not too concerned if it drops a little after I put money in or not. Even when the market drops a lot, it always recovers. It's just a question of how long that might take. Usually 10 years is more than enough time, but not always. I plan on keeping about 20% in bonds and 20% in cash though, just in case.

[AnesthesiaMD]

Originally Posted by Leo58

Insurance is insurance and investments are investments, and never the twain shall meet.

Not true at all. You never heard of cash value whole life insurance? Wealthy people have been doing this for a very long time. It beats the hell out of a 401k because you basically are unlimited on how much you can put into it. I have been putting 4 times as much as would be allowable into my 401k. Plus, it will not be down, like my 401k will this year. And when I borrow money against it, there is no income tax because it is a loan.

It is genius actually. It helps to have close relatives who are Wall St. "robber barons" to guide you in your financial planning.

Honestly, I dont think I will need to even use it in retirement. My rentals should be more than sufficient. But it's nice to know it is there if I need it. And if I dont use it, it is all the much more I leave to my heirs.

[ClaraC]

Well, the market got up on the right side of the bed this morning. Let's see if we can continue that optimism through the day.

[sholomar]

Originally Posted by hawkeye2009

The reason that stock markets matter is that the majority of wealth and retirement funds for average Americans (not the ultra rich) are tied up in the stock market.

You are right about the percentage of businesses that are publicly traded. That is not the point at all. The point is that the average American does not have large real estate holdings nor personally own large stakes in businesses. Their avenue of investment has been the markets and they are in jeopardy.

All of our medical staff in our clinic (and hospital) have their retirement and most additional savings they have accumulated in the markets. The only exception is an heiress we have as a nurse (why she is working, I do not know) who has a vast amount of wealth in ownership of a large hotel chain in the US and real estate holdings with very little investment in the stock market. That is a very peculiar exception- most of the rest of Americans who have ANY SAVINGS have those in the markets.

That doesn't mean that stock markets should be artificially inflated to levels that are absurd to generate fake wealth for people. That's a form of welfare.

The markets should trade at realistic valuations backed by historical measures and there should certainly not be central bank propping up of the stock market, especially zombie companies, much less bailouts.

Bankruptcy and defaults are an important part of the system to weed out bad and corrupt elements and keep the system structurally healthy.

We keep rewarding bad behavior in society and at some point it's going to lead to the demise of that society. You can't keep telling people to live in the moment, spend recklessly, go into debt, commit crimes, then bail them out, give them no jail time, participation trophies, and the like. We absolutely need to promote responsible living. With freedom comes responsibility, but we want it all... we want to have our cake and eat it too.. when we actually vote for politicians that let us do this, that's not healthy.