More people are reported as dying from the COVID Vaccines Than Monkeypox

[suzy_q2010]

Originally Posted by TRex2

Well, that definition may work in a medical lab, but in a math book, the definition of Rzero would then be pretty extreme, since it would be the max number of sex partners a gay man could have.

I take Rzero to be the probable number of victims the virus could be expected to infect, from one infected person.
I suppose this is closer to your definition of R (without subscript?)

Either way, I expect many segments of the population to show R higher than 1.

The government's slow response is guaranteeing the spread, currently through the gay male population, but as it infects tens of thousands of gay men, they will spread it into the rest of the population. Even at 1%, that amounts to hundreds of cases. In another 3 or 4 months, there will be millions of cases, and if 1% are in the general population, that means tens of thousands of other people. If the virus spreads, even 1% of the time through casual contact, that will mean tens of thousands will eventually get it, that way.

Because of the high promiscuity rate of gay males, they needed to contract trace, test and vaccinate about 50 people for every known case, to shut this down. When there were 500 cases, that would have been a challenge. Now that we have topped 20,000: it is impossible. Now we have to provide tests and/or vaccines to the general population.

As I don't know how well the vaccine works (smallpox worked well, measles pretty good, covid, not so well) I don't know how many people will have to be vaccinated to shut this down. Personally I doubt we ever will.

Topped 20,000? Link?

Current US figures:

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeyp...22/us-map.html

The smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective against monkeypox.

[TRex2]

Originally Posted by Leo58

"This monkeypox that comes from Monkeys and rodents..."

Influenza came from birds and pigs. So there is really nothing new or unusual about viruses hopping species.

The real differences are the population density, ease of transportation, and poor health (retaliative to a generation or two ago).

Originally Posted by suzy_q2010

Topped 20,000? Link?

Current US figures:

https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeyp...22/us-map.html

The smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective against monkeypox.

Yes, I should have said "may have topped 20,000."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...k/10210682002/

Figure 1
U.S. Monkeypox Outbreak: Number of Confirmed Cases by State
3,591 U.S. Confirmed Cases (as of July 26, 2022)

Assuming two weeks delay in reporting, half of the cases being asymptomatic, and some people not cooperating with the gathering of statistics (if you were a gay male who hasn't "come out" would you cooperate?), today's total would be somewhere north of 20k.

As we saw with Covid, the real numbers of cases were much higher than the statistics. Many had it, and didn't even know it.

Edit to add: I got your link to work, after finding the one I used. Yours shows 6617 today. Figure the real number is four times that (double for delays, double again for asymptomatics), so we probably have 26468? cases.