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Eventually, in 5-10 years things would have turned around without intervention, but right now we'd be in depression with 15-25% unemployment.
I would have been OK waiting for the markets correct themselves (that's why I opposed Bush/Obama bailouts), because I was prepeared, but a lot of people in this country would be in serious hole right now. Much like the 1930s.
agreed- I believe a self market correction would be very harsh but for a shorter period of time. To me it seems all the bailouts do is put more strain on the taxpayer and extend the recession. Not to mention increase inflationary pressures before the economy is moving forward. Very Dangerous.
Last edited by cleanhouse; 05-14-2009 at 07:42 AM..
Reason: too many words
Well now that people can see that all the bailouts and government meddling aren't good bandaids for what's wrong, maybe we can start addressing the problems.
We have to start cutting government spending.
LOL
I don't think a 3-day stretch of bad news says ANYTHING like that. The fact is, that's the nature of being at or near the bottom - sometimes news will be good, sometimes news will be bad. For the last few weeks there have been many signs that things were bottoming out - new unemployment claims were dropping, inventories being reduced, etc, etc, etc. These week's news marks a reversal of some of that - but it's just a single week's worth of news.
Lets see what kind of reports come out tomorrow and next week, etc.
I've agreed all along that this was going to be a horrific year (even though I DO believe we are at or near the bottom).
I don't think a 3-day stretch of bad news says ANYTHING like that. The fact is, that's the nature of being at or near the bottom - sometimes news will be good, sometimes news will be bad. For the last few weeks there have been many signs that things were bottoming out - new unemployment claims were dropping, inventories being reduced, etc, etc, etc. These week's news marks a reversal of some of that - but it's just a single week's worth of news.
Lets see what kind of reports come out tomorrow and next week, etc.
I've agreed all along that this was going to be a horrific year (even though I DO believe we are at or near the bottom).
Ken
the question is how long will we be at the bottom?
If it is a 2-3 year trudge at the bottom I do not want to hear 4 years from now that the stimulous and trillion dollar bailouts were a success.
The economy would have recovered in that time anyway.
Eventually, in 5-10 years things would have turned around without intervention, but right now we'd be in depression with 15-25% unemployment.
I would have been OK waiting for the markets correct themselves (that's why I opposed Bush/Obama bailouts), because I was prepeared, but a lot of people in this country would be in serious hole right now. Much like the 1930s.
The problem is, the whole reason the economy is in trouble is because it was based on a housing bubble that had to burst at some point. Greedy developers bringing in truckload after truckload of illegals to build cheap houses that they would sell for ungodly amounts of money with the help of greedy lenders that knew full well that the buyers could not pay.
That and the consumerism that relied on massive consumer credit card spending, cheap products made by third world slaves and of course a huge welfare economy in the USA that allows people to never work a day in their lives and yet live high on the hog.
Obama hasn't addressed a single issue yet, he's only tried to keep the illusion of prosperity and big spending and higher debt going.
the question is how long will we be at the bottom?
If it is a 2-3 year trudge at the bottom I do not want to hear 4 years from now that the stimulous and trillion dollar bailouts were a success.
The economy would have recovered in that time anyway.
I agree with many economists and expect that the recovery will begin later this year. The real question of course is HOW ROBUST the recovery is. That remains to be seen of course, but I believe it will be a stronger and faster recovery because of the stimulus efforts - and that next year will see a significant improvement.
This year WILL be ugly though - as I've said all along.
This is the deepest recession we've had in nearly a century, so it's not going to clear itself up overnight - even taking into account the government stimulus.
I don't think a 3-day stretch of bad news says ANYTHING like that. The fact is, that's the nature of being at or near the bottom - sometimes news will be good, sometimes news will be bad. For the last few weeks there have been many signs that things were bottoming out - new unemployment claims were dropping, inventories being reduced, etc, etc, etc. These week's news marks a reversal of some of that - but it's just a single week's worth of news.
Lets see what kind of reports come out tomorrow and next week, etc.
I've agreed all along that this was going to be a horrific year (even though I DO believe we are at or near the bottom).
Ken
Why would you think we're at or near the bottom? What has changed? Certainly not NAFTA and the export of American jobs. No government program has been cut. The banks still give out money to people who can never repay their loans.
There has been no job creation. We've still got impoverished third world populations flooding over our borders, people who can never make it with the high cost of living here on their minimal job skills and education but have extremely high reproductive rates -- children the taxpayers will have to feed. We've got far too many people living off the government which is out of money.
Real change has to happen before this can turn around. So far nothing has replaced the housing bubble which did create some jobs for the third world cheap labor that continues to arrive in large numbers. Where's the change?
I believe before it's over, we're going to see large numbers of people unemployed -- and we haven't seen anything yet. We're going to have to come to grips with massive third world immigration while the jobs are being exported to third world nations and the fact that the fewer and fewer taxpayers cannot keep it all propped up.
We need fundamental change, not a few trillion dollar bandaids haphazardly applied.
I agree with many economists and expect that the recovery will begin later this year. The real question of course is HOW ROBUST the recovery is. That remains to be seen of course, but I believe it will be a stronger and faster recovery because of the stimulus efforts - and that next year will see a significant improvement.
This year WILL be ugly though - as I've said all along.
This is the deepest recession we've had in nearly a century, so it's not going to clear itself up overnight - even taking into account the government stimulus.
Ken
Quote:
Originally Posted by malamute
Why would you think we're at or near the bottom? What has changed? Certainly not NAFTA and the export of American jobs. No government program has been cut. The banks still give out money to people who can never repay their loans.
There has been no job creation. We've still got impoverished third world populations flooding over our borders, people who can never make it with the high cost of living here on their minimal job skills and education but have extremely high reproductive rates -- children the taxpayers will have to feed. We've got far too many people living off the government which is out of money.
Real change has to happen before this can turn around. So far nothing has replaced the housing bubble which did create some jobs for the third world cheap labor that continues to arrive in large numbers. Where's the change?
Both are good arguments. To me there are too many obsticles on the way to recovery for anything robust to occur in 2010-2011. any recovery is going to be hinged to inflationary pressures and hence rising interest rates. Who knows though- there are no experts . Some guros have a better batting average then others but none of them really know anything about the future.
Wal Mart's doing as expected so at least people are buying groceries. The auto makers though, they're going to be in trouble. But gun dealers are doing good.
Housing construction in my area was about as hot as it gets and its still cool to near cold. Commercial construction is still going strong but we have alot of malls with empty store fronts that have been empty for over a year. I think it may get really ugly in another year when these new stores go empty on top of the old ones.
Wal Mart's doing as expected so at least people are buying groceries. The auto makers though, they're going to be in trouble. But gun dealers are doing good.
Housing construction in my area was about as hot as it gets and its still cool to near cold. Commercial construction is still going strong but we have alot of malls with empty store fronts that have been empty for over a year. I think it may get really ugly in another year when these new stores go empty on top of the old ones.
Think about the jobs lost if malls start closing up all over the place.
Oh man it could get real ugly.
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