Incredibly vague.
Quote:
|
Experts at the world's top atomic watchdog are in agreement that Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb
|
What does that mean? They know how? That's unavoidable. Any nation with universities can train people that can build a bomb. The technology is sixty years old. The question is how sophisticated they can go - a 2000-pound nuke is an entirely different threat than a 200-pound one.
They have gathered the materials? That is harder. It would be news if they had. (I harbor no illusions that they won't eventually, though. They're smart, resourceful and dedicated.)
Quote:
|
and is on the way to developing a missile system able to carry an atomic warhead
|
Another task that isn't altogether too hard -
if you have a sophisticated warhead that is small enough, light enough and engineered well enough to survive the launch. It took serious testing to develop the current crop of Russian and US warheads.
I think they'll be able to build a nuke in the next 2-3 years. I think they'll be able to launch a reasonably reliable and precise IRBM in the next 2-3 years. I do have to wonder if they'll be able to fit their nuke on top of their IRBM.
As can probably be told, I'm somewhat resigned to the thought of Iran with nukes - there's no bulls-eye target that'll stop them, they undoubtedly learned from the Osirak strike. Bomb them now, and you may at best delay them for some years, at worst trigger an uncontainable conflict. You'll also place the current regime firmly in power, **** off our current Shia allies in Iraq and probably have to spend a lot of time calming down the Saudis.
On the other hand, I see no reason to believe that an Iran with nukes will immediately trigger a strike on Israel. They're not dumb. They know that any missile leaving Iranian territory will be considered a possible nuke. And they know that Israel and the world will come down on them like a ton of bricks.
The logical motivation is this:Having a nuke is the globally accepted "get-out-of-US-invasion" card. Iran looked at US attitudes and actions towards Iraq (no bomb) and North Korea (has bomb) and drew their own conclusions.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
That was a useless article...
