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I agree with Bluefly that you should not rule out Minnesota. When dealing with the "MIdwest" there is a difference between those states in the Great Plains and those bording the Great Lakes. The Great Plains States from North Dakota to Oklahoma are quite conservative. However Minnesota and Wisconsin are actually more on the progressive side...look at how they've been voting in federal elections recently. There is a possibility for these two states to follow the New England states.
Secondly, the Federal Government can and does get the states to fall into line on certain issues when it deems it necessary to do so. For example, all of the states raised the drinking age to 21 by the 1980's due to pressure from the federal government. How did the federal government do this? By threatening to withhold federal highway funds to maintain the road network. (You will learn this in American Government 101). The US government does not want to withdraw these monies for obvious reasons. Hence, it often allows for years of negotiations over a specific issues before the federal government draws the line in the sand. Then, the states are eventually forced to bend to the federal governments will...The point of this? This is the most likely scenario on how the federal government would get all states to legalize same sex marriages. (it is years away and will take even more years to complete).
I agree with Bluefly that you should not rule out Minnesota. When dealing with the "MIdwest" there is a difference between those states in the Great Plains and those bording the Great Lakes. The Great Plains States from North Dakota to Oklahoma are quite conservative. However Minnesota and Wisconsin are actually more on the progressive side...look at how they've been voting in federal elections recently. There is a possibility for these two states to follow the New England states.
Secondly, the Federal Government can and does get the states to fall into line on certain issues when it deems it necessary to do so. For example, all of the states raised the drinking age to 21 by the 1980's due to pressure from the federal government. How did the federal government do this? By threatening to withhold federal highway funds to maintain the road network. (You will learn this in American Government 101). The US government does not want to withdraw these monies for obvious reasons. Hence, it often allows for years of negotiations over a specific issues before the federal government draws the line in the sand. Then, the states are eventually forced to bend to the federal governments will...The point of this? This is the most likely scenario on how the federal government would get all states to legalize same sex marriages. (it is years away and will take even more years to complete).
Don't forget about Illinois. It's a progressive state in many ways especially with the dominance of Chicago politics over rural Illinois, in my opinion.
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, New Mexico, Colorado, Rhode Island, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, and California (eventually)
My point is that more states could allow gay marriages not only for equality rights but also for economic reasons.
But the last few to allow it will by the nature of the situation have the least to gain in sales tax revenue. Six states are already splitting up that pot. By the time it's legal in 20 states that effect will be negligible. Although there could be other economic factors like the means-test issue you mentioned as well as the possibility of boycotts.
My prediction in order of the next 10 is: DC (pretty safe bet now), New Jersey, Rhode Island, New York, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Nevada
IMO, it is doubtful you will see more than 2 or three in the next decade.
I bet people were thinking the same thing about a year ago, and then four more states approved it.
I think attitudes are changing faster than a lot of people realize.
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