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"March 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers won’t hire enough workers this year to lower the jobless rate much below the level of 9.7 percent reached in February, three Obama administration economic officials said today.
The proportion of Americans who can’t find work is likely to “remain elevated for an extended period,” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, White House budget director Peter Orszag and Christina Romer, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a joint statement. The officials said unemployment may even rise “slightly” over the next few months as discouraged workers start job-hunting again."
"March 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers won’t hire enough workers this year to lower the jobless rate much below the level of 9.7 percent reached in February, three Obama administration economic officials said today.
The proportion of Americans who can’t find work is likely to “remain elevated for an extended period,” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, White House budget director Peter Orszag and Christina Romer, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said in a joint statement. The officials said unemployment may even rise “slightly” over the next few months as discouraged workers start job-hunting again."
That's from Obama's own team and not the "right".
Well sure.
First of all, did I EVER say were were rapidly going to return to FULL EMPLOYMENT?
It always takes time for the unemployment rate return to normal levels. Even during the Reagan recovery, it took nearly a full year after the peak for the unemployment rate to drop below 9% and it stayed elevated (ie above 7%) for 2 YEARS beyond that. That's just the reality of the situation. That doesn't mean we're not in recovery or that jobs are not being created.
Secondly, after being pummeled for underestimating how high the unemployment rate would get, the folks in the Administration are being very cautious in their estimates. We'll do better than they are estimating.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-16-2010 at 02:44 PM..
"U.S. corporate borrowers amassed the most cash relative to debt on record through the fourth quarter and will likely preserve cash levels this year, supporting corporate bonds, Morgan Stanley said on Friday. ... Morgan Stanley's report was based on fourth quarter results from over 200 nonfinancial, investment-grade U.S. companies."
OK how are they going to preserve cash this year and pay employies to do work for them?
You can do a bit of each you know.
It doesn't have to be "all or nothing". Many companies have ALREADY SAID they are planning to increase hiring - and in fact have ALREADY STARTED DOING SO (see the original post in this thread).
It's not a question of IF companies are going to pick up hiring - they ALREADY ARE. The only questions are "How much?" and "How fast?".
That is what you want them to do what are they going to do? What about giving their workers a raise? Adjusted for inflation it has been a long time sence the average white male got a pay raise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
It doesn't have to be "all or nothing". Many companies have ALREADY SAID they are planning to increase hiring - and in fact have ALREADY STARTED DOING SO (see the original post in this thread).
It's not a question of IF companies are going to pick up hiring - they ALREADY ARE. The only questions are "How much?" and "How fast?".
Ken
I hope you are correct but I think that the popping bubble will pop some more and that will ruin the "recovery".
You have to look at the company revenues. If revenue is going up there's a chance but if revenues are stagnant or declining then probably not. The shareholders come first and income vs revenue is what it's all about.
You have to look at the company revenues. If revenue is going up there's a chance but if revenues are stagnant or declining then probably not. The shareholders come first and income vs revenue is what it's all about.
Revenues & sales have been up (this past holiday season for example was quite a bit better than forecast) and costs have been down.
One of the other things that's happening is that companies have gone a buying spree in regards to buying up their own stock.
Company share buybacks are roaring, at a rate unseen in years. Is that a market buy signal? Mike Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., and Jack Bouroudjian, chief executive of Indexfuturesgroup.com, offered their insights.
"It means there's growing confidence in the boardrooms," said Holland.
In past downturns, an increase in temp employment has been a leading indicator of a recovery in the job market. Employers tend to hire temporary workers first because of the minimal risk and cost, since they don’t have to pay for expensive benefits like heath care. In February, temporary help services added 48,000 jobs. In all, 284,000 temporary jobs have been added since September 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Traditionally during a recovery, temporary employment (has been) followed an increase in permanent employment, which has just begun to happen.
from the OP's link
Let us celebrate. 284,000 jobs were created in 6 months
Quote:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 801,086 in the week ending Jan. 9, an increase of 156,165 from the previous week. There were 956,791 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
Revenues & sales have been up (this past holiday season for example was quite a bit better than forecast) and costs have been down.
One of the other things that's happening is that companies have gone a buying spree in regards to buying up their own stock.
Company share buybacks are roaring, at a rate unseen in years. Is that a market buy signal? Mike Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., and Jack Bouroudjian, chief executive of Indexfuturesgroup.com, offered their insights.
"It means there's growing confidence in the boardrooms," said Holland.
Business is still cautious after the bloodbath we've had, but increasingly that caution is transforming into optimism.
And THAT is a good thing indeed.
Ken
Ken,
Company share buyback also falsely inflates the price of the stock since less shares are in circulation. Not necessarily a vote of confidence in the boardroom rather than keep the shareholders happy.
There's good reasons and bad for share buybacks by companies. Share buy backs
Actually it's not looking too bad at all.
There are REASONS' unemployment numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. The fact is, there is always extra hiring before the holidays and extra layoffs after the holidays. This happens whether the economy is booming or in recession and thus doesn't reflect the status of the economy, but rather the particular activity of that particular time of year
So, if you want to see how the job market is performing over the long run - and not have that picture be clouded by seasonal activity that happens EVERY YEAR (more or less no matter what), you SEASONALLY ADJUST IT and remove the spikes and valleys that happen EVERY SINGLE YEAR so that you can see the underlying trend uncluttered by changes that happen every single year anyway.
THAT'S why the numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
And the Seasonally Adjusted picture is not too bad.
Ken
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