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Old 04-28-2010, 03:37 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donn2390 View Post
Unemployment has NOT dropped at all. More people have given up looking for work. It's over 12% in California, and if you add all those who quit looking, it's over 15% nationwide.
Saying unemployment is dropping doesn't make it true...
Our corrupt leader is a lying POS...
Yet another silly ignorant poster who seems to get their news from talk radio spinmeisters.

Those people who have given up looking for work are accounted for in the U-6 unemployment rate - which is ALSO down from it's peak in October (though Feb & March were up slightly from the January low). U-6 was at 17.4% in October and in March was at 16.9%. The January low was 16.5%.
The U-3 (traditional) unemployment rate (which does NOT include those who have "given up looking" also peaked in October - at 10.2%. That number was at 9.7% in March (where it has been since January).

Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate

Ken
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:39 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by TXboomerang View Post
At this rate it will be down to that elusive 8% that Obama promised when pushing the stimulus by the time his first term is up. Or maybe not.

Lets also see what happens to those numbers when all of the temp census workers are back out of work.
We'll be down to 8 "something" percent by the end of THIS year, and under 8% by next summer.

Ken
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:47 PM
 
48,502 posts, read 96,877,697 times
Reputation: 18304
Its to be expected when the governamnt is pouring so much liquidy into the market. The real test comes when its removed. The great depression and a lowering and then a spke. Perosanlly i would have expected it to drop more with the money spent which shows how poorly designed the stimuluus was.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:53 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Its to be expected when the governamnt is pouring so much liquidy into the market. The real test comes when its removed. The great depression and a lowering and then a spke. Perosanlly i would have expected it to drop more with the money spent which shows how poorly designed the stimuluus was.
It's not just a matter of how much the stimulus LOWERED the unemployment rate, it's a matter of how much HIGHER it might have gone WITHOUT the stimulus. That of course is open to debate and NO ONE knows the answer. People can make projections all they want (as the Administration did back in January of 2009) but the fact is, all those projections are little more than educated guesses based on the information they had available AT THE TIME.
Same thing is true of any "what would have happened" estimates of the unemployment rate under other circumstances (ie no stimulus).

The facts are clear though - the stimulus was put in effect, and the economy is now recovering FASTER than most economists expected.

And THAT is good thing.


Ken
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:53 PM
 
6,762 posts, read 11,632,440 times
Reputation: 3028
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
We'll be down to 8 "something" percent by the end of THIS year, and under 8% by next summer.

Ken
I will give you a cookie if you are right, I'll even bake them myself.
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Old 04-28-2010, 03:55 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by TXboomerang View Post
I will give you a cookie if you are right, I'll even bake them myself.
White Chocolate Chip Macadamia Nut please.
YUM!


Ken
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Old 04-28-2010, 04:07 PM
 
Location: The Great State of Texas, Finally!
5,477 posts, read 12,248,239 times
Reputation: 2825
I suggest you get on the employment forum of this site and have a look at what those people are saying. It doesn't jive with your rosey picture.
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Old 04-28-2010, 04:21 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,337,717 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by cobolt View Post
I suggest you get on the employment forum of this site and have a look at what those people are saying. It doesn't jive with your rosey picture.
Who said it's "rosey"? Unemployment is WAY TOO HIGH.
What I'm saying is "It's not going to remain so high - in fact, it's ALREADY starting to improve". That doesn't mean it's 'good' yet. It's not been 'good' for a year and half now. We didn't get this high a level of joblessness overnight and we're not getting out of it overnight - but we ARE getting out of it.

Ken
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Old 04-28-2010, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Rational World Park
4,991 posts, read 4,506,565 times
Reputation: 2375
Great news..After 8 years of imploding, Obama has turned the big ship around in just a year. Can't wait to see what those who simlpy hate him will say when the numbers catch up and unemployment begins to drop.
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Old 04-28-2010, 05:37 PM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,708,789 times
Reputation: 169
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Actually BOTH gold AND stocks are doing well at the moment.
I'm still of the opinion however that once it becomes completely apparent that the economy is definitely recovering and that the dollar is NOT going to drop into the toilet and that there will be no significant inflation, gold will drop (and drop fast).

Ken
The dollar is currently relatively strong. That is http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704423504575212104219854716.html?m od=djemalertMARKET this article says some interesting things about the euro. http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/04/28/the-daisy-chain-effect-that-i-predicted-has-commenced/ Some other stuff to read.
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