Portland will become the next San Francisco (road, about)

[The Cactus Leaguer]

For almost my entire life, population projections have claimed that Portland metro would grow faster than the national average (not explosively fast like some areas in the desert southwest, just modestly above national average). That has been pretty much true and it will continue to be true.

I don't know that we'll be the "next Vancouver BC/Seattle/SF" per se, and even if we hit those levels I'm sure those cities will continue to grow and evolve at a similar pace.

I am more fascinated by how we will grow as the city and the state continue to place huge bets on the UGB, redevelopment, and non-auto centric transportation. I'm sort of agnostic about it. I love downtown and the neighborhoods; I love what the biking community is doing right now to make the streets safer; at the same time I get frustrated at how Trimet treats the suburbs while we continue to have a road system that is barely adequate for 1.5 million people being utilized by almost 2.5 million people. Bring on the Google car please!

I hear and share the concerns about job growth, but to me that will resolve itself. Portland will always be a more expensive place to live than average because it is a more desirable place to live (and employers will want to place their businesses where they can capitalize on a smart, creative workforce); at the same time, individuals have to reach their own tipping point where they say "I can't make a comfortable enough living here, so I'm heading somewhere else instead". In that sense, we (along with every other large city in the west) are already like San Francisco to an extent. You have to weigh the tradeoffs and decide if it's worth it.

[nycping]

We don't have the academic universities which the Bay area has. The companies are looking for human capital.

[58rhodes]

Originally Posted by nycping

We don't have the academic universities which the Bay area has. The companies are looking for human capital.

I think companies look for cheap land, tax breaks and a favorable housing market---people can be imported.

besides Portland has one of the 15 most educated work forces in the nation.

[FSF]

Originally Posted by 58rhodes

I think companies look for cheap land, tax breaks and a favorable housing market---people can be imported.

besides Portland has one of the 15 most educated work forces in the nation.

I have to respectfully disagree. The country is FILLED with regions and cities that have "cheap land, tax breaks and a favorable housing market" yet they are unable to import enough if any human capital, nor the type of companies it would take to continue to bring in that human capital.

Conversely, New York and the SF Bay Area are INCREDIBLY expensive from a land perspective and have ever increasingly bloated housing markets yet they have no problem attracting the best and brightest in the country. Same goes for Boston, DC, Seattle and LA and Chicago to some extent and some other places including Portland on a minor level.

IMO, the fundamental key is to get some thriving companies that will attract a lot of human capital. A strong university base would certainly help but is not necessary a must have. But human capital is BY FAR the single biggest asset of today's and tomorrow's economy.

Unfortunately, favorable housing markets will be at best fleeting, if ever existing at all, for those areas that are worth settling in from a career growth perspective. It's not at all surprising that many of the cities which might offer that are situated in the South (like a Houston before this oil turmoil) and to some extent Midwest, regions where not all that many people seem to want to settle.

[58rhodes]

well Portland isnt going to be the next San Francisco.
No need to worry about that.

[FSF]

Originally Posted by 58rhodes

well Portland isnt going to be the next San Francisco.
No need to worry about that.

Thank goodness for that.

[The Global Citizen]

From looking at the historical data (and growth) of Portland, it is evident that the city is nothing like it used to be in terms of social, political, and economic influence. As someone that has lived on all sides/corners of the country, I don't know if there are any other mid-tier cities that have as much ability, willingness, and bandwidth to grow outside of Portland, Minneapolis, and Denver (to an extent). If it doesn't trend toward SF/Vancouver-like growth, it will certainly make the PNW more global and interconnected at the very least.

[redguard57]

San Francisco is quite unique because of its geographic situation, so PDX will never become that. Land use and a resistance to growth in Oregon has probably worked to inhibit Portland from becoming more like Denver or Salt Lake - since there is plenty of land to expand into, but they can't. To some extent that is a good thing since I would rather not bulldoze the forest for strip malls.

The big difference between San Francisco and the PDX area besides land area is the port facility. The bay area has the 5th busiest port in the United States in the Port of Oakland, Portland doesn't even have a regular shipping carrier anymore.

Another difference as others have said is human capital - the techies like world class research universities to be nearby to provide ready access to talent. Austin has University of Texas, Raleigh-Durham has University of North Carolina and Duke, Seattle as UW, Bay Area has Stanford, Berkeley, Boston has Harvard, MIT. Portland has...Portland State? A former commuter school that's only just getting a little better. 1 or 2 decent but small liberal arts colleges? University of Oregon is 3 hours away and is not world class, ranking at #130 or something in national univerisites.

[58rhodes]

Portland does not have regular CONTAINER shipping, its still the largest grain port in the western hemisphere and one of the 4 or 5 biggest auto ports in the US
The biggest group of transplants to Portland are bay area residents and Portland is not all that far from Cal,Stanford, as well as U of O, Oregon St and U of W --Dont you think these grads would rather spend a half mill on a good chunk of property?--BTW Hillsboro airport always has jets coming and going from the Bay area--Ever heard of Intel???and with all that intellectual power the Intel pentium processor was designed and engineered in the state of Oregon.
Of course we are not going to become the next San Francisco --San Fran is a pretty dirty place, I was very disappointed the last time I was there.
We live in a new world and Im sure Oregon companies do research ALL over the world. Oregon is not lacking in hi tech --too much now if you ask me -- Portland is Portland

and since your name dropping Universities based on success dont Forget that Phil Knight may be the richest of any one of them besides Bill Gates and he went to both Uof O and Stanford -- as do many Oregon High School grads

[Pretzelogik]

Ahh how bout Seattle?