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Raleigh is GENERALLY a stable market. So, here are your choices.
If the 1.6% is a dealbreaker for you, wait. In the meantime if mortgage rates spike you will end up paying way more than 1.6% in extra interest costs over time even if the house you buy costs 1.6% less in a few months.
Try to bottom-feed now. Maybe you'll find someone who is both
A) Desperate to sell
and
B) Has the exact house you want up for sale.
OR-
You could go find the house you WANT, make your best deal, and just buy it.
In a market that so many say is "flat", "declining", "dead", call it what you will-
I just (this month) sold a house for 28% more than I paid for it in 2003.
The market may very well drop 1.6%. It may not. Are you really in the market for a home or just trying to steal something??? None of the above matters unless you are [i]really[i]in the market.
Now, Now, John...name calling is not acceptable here.
I must say that I'm AMAZED that you "predict" what the housing market in Raleigh will do. The part that amazes me is that you are not FROM this area and have no EXPERIENCE in this area and no matter how many times you have been informed that this area has not seen a bubble and therefore we have no reason for the "bubble" to burst, you insist on stating your opinions. Yes, yes, I know. Opinions are like A+++++++. Everyone has one.
My questions to you are...have you bought a house? Can you afford to buy a house? Have you ever owned a home? How long have you been in this area? I ask this because sometimes when people can't have something, they speak negatively about it. You know, the sour grapes theme. So, I'm curious. I publically acknowledge that I'm a Real Estate Agent, therefore, you know my credentials. I'd be interested in hearing what yours are.
Thanks!
Vicki
The original poster asked: "what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?"
And I answered it.
If you have a prediction, then state it clearly along with your reasons.
Being a real estate agent doesn't mean you are an economist.
All of the questions you asked me are irrelevant to this post. Please stay on the topic. I won't be dragged into rhetoric discussion; it won't be nice to highjack the thread...wouldn't it.
The original poster asked: "what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?"
And I answered it.
If you have a prediction, then state it clearly along with your reasons.
Being a real estate agent doesn't mean you are an economist.
All of the questions you asked me are irrelevant to this post. Please stay on the topic. I won't be dragged into rhetoric discussion; it won't be nice to highjack the thread...wouldn't it.
I'm not trying to take sides here, since Vicki is a cool person as far as I can tell, but My dad is a realtor and I know more realtors and they made a lot of wrong predictions when I sold my house in VA in March 2006. My dad kept on telling me..."it'll pick up in the spring heading into summer". I thought he was right, since typically that's what happens. It never happened. Sales have begun to drop steadily since I sold my house. I'm not saying this area is like NoVA (no housing boom ever happened here), but this area will be affected by the housing fallout is other areas and I'm certain that prices will not be raising as much as they have in the last 5 years here. I've done a lot of anyalsis of the Triangle market and it is generally strong, but there are many areas that have not appreciated the same within the last year as they had in years past. Homes are taking longer to sell in most neoghborhoods as compared to even a year ago.
While I don't think we'll be in too bad of shape here, I do think some neighborhoods will see flat growth this year and next. I don't know much about falling prices for existing homes. I mean people might drop their asking price, but I don't think too many people will lose money by selling now if they bought 2 years ago. A lot of people selling though (if they have only owned for 2 years) are really coming out even right now though. So we are worse then we were 2 years ago, but I don't think there will be an across the board drop in prices.
Anything can really happen though, the way the economy and the strength of our dollar is right now, we could be a lot worse off by this time next year. We might be seeing things happen that have NEVER happened before, or at least not happened for a really long time. That's why realtors can not tell you everything...since we might be in for some unprecidented change. We'll have to wait and see...
what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?
will it increase or drop? I heard from my friend, he said " it may drop 1.6%. is it true? Any Guess?
Snowsun, first of all, let me commend you for asking for our gueses. That's really all any of us can do right now - guess. That's always been the case, of course, but the future is harder to predict now because there are so many conflicting voices talking so loudly all at the same time.
I find that the real estate agents and home owners (of which I am one) are more likely to predict a stable market, while those who are currently house hunting are predicting price drops. But that makes sense, right? We all want the market to favor our personal situation.
I think it's hard to predict our local market because, in many respects, all of these voices are right ... even though they conflict with one another. Prices are dropping in certain parts of the market, but remain steady in others.
So here's my guess.
I think that sales for new homes that cost over $450K are slowing and will continue to do so. Part of the problem is that rates for jumbo mortgages have gone up, but it's also because transplants from pricier areas don't have as much cash in their pockets as they did even a year ago. We may not have experienced the inflation rates of other markets, but some of that bursting bubble will trickle down to the Triangle. We've seen that home builders in this price bracket are reducing their prices, but we've also heard tales that builders are turning some "standard" features into additional, costly "up-grades" to make up for that reduced cost. It's complicated.
I think the homes that will suffer the least will be the ones on the market that are affordable for many of the people who have lived and worked here in the Triangle for a number of years. It's just a guess, of course, but I think houses that are going for $300K & less will remain fairly stable for the next year or so. We may even see demand rise in that price bracket, but I would honestly be surprised if values increased more than a couple percentage points.
I've heard some economic experts say that the worst is over. I've heard others say that we're in the eye of the storm. I've heard others say that this is the beginning of a major recession. So as you can see, even the economic experts cannot speak with a unified voice. There are too many variables & too many unknowns. When it comes right down to it, you just need to go where life takes you & don't stretch yourself too thin.
People ultimatly have to live someplace, people want to move to the raleigh area, I think housing will and should be a place to LIVE not an investment or the means of getting rich in 2 years. Or should a house be a piggy bank with using equity to buy STUFF!! Pretty crazy those foreclosure stories ,take a read at this one!! How to lose your home in a few easy steps - Mortgage Mess - MSNBC.com
Enjoy!
Help me! I thought new math was dead and gone. If she was the only one on the mortgage how did she get a $2400 a month mortgage with take home pay of $2,000? Both her broker, the lending company and most importantly her must have been using a different calculator then I have?
Help me! I thought new math was dead and gone. If she was the only one on the mortgage how did she get a $2400 a month mortgage with take home pay of $2,000? Both her broker, the lending company and most importantly her must have been using a different calculator then I have?
If the mortgage guy told you to jump off a bridge would ya?
Help me! I thought new math was dead and gone. If she was the only one on the mortgage how did she get a $2400 a month mortgage with take home pay of $2,000? Both her broker, the lending company and most importantly her must have been using a different calculator then I have?
But her sister was not on the mortgage. If her sister couldn't qualify I assume her income/credit was less then hers. I am assuming that means she qualified on her own. Correct me if I am wrong.
what would you predict about home price for atleast next six month - 1 year?
will it increase or drop? I heard from my friend, he said " it may drop 1.6%. is it true? Any Guess?
I will take an educated guess at this one from another angle... I am not a Realtor, but "I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express"
Right now it is October, so in 6 months (April) I *think* housing prices will rise or stay fairly steady as this is normally the start of the peak season. People looking to move so their kids can start in their new school...
And in one year (October) this is the end of the season, where you see deals being given out by builders (trying to get homes off the books by the end of the year) and homes that took all summer not selling will lower their prices. People desperate to sell prior to the holiday season.
Realtors can prove me wrong, but I am *pretty sure* the best time to put your home on the market is around April. Thoughts?
The home prices have been dropping for few months now, and it is going to go down for a while. I predict the prices will go down until next summer. If the economy slips into a recession, it could take years before recovery.
The subprime problem is not local, and the real estate market is not local as some might argue. I am talking about the general state of the market, not specific zip code, subdivision, neighborhood, or a single house.
Anyone who understands economics and aware of the current situation and have different interpretation has to prove his case on sound economic and statistical data. If he doesn't or couldn’t, then he either an ignorant or a fool.
Beyond actual numbers I only have an opinion.
For actual numbers I know that two homes (resales) just sold near my house and were advertised on MLS for less than two weeks before going to contract. While I don't know for certain what the contract price is (need to wait for the Wake County site to catch up in a few weeks) the listing price was running a little higher per square foot over what I bought my house for this past Spring. However I've noticed an explosion of signs posted all over the place advertising newly constructed houses. I haven't counted them so I'm unable to provide an accurate number however I can tell you they weren't there three months ago and now they are.
As for an opinion I generally agree with JohnE1000 when he states that our region is not so local as to be unaffected by the turmoil in the national real estate and mortgage markets. However the prices in the Triangle are still properly aligned with what people can afford (an opinion based on fact). And I firmly believe that a market that never became grossly overinflated simply does not have as far to fall once the air is let out of the bubble. I still know plenty of people on Long Island looking to sell a house and growing increasingly desperate. I know of no one in Raleigh in such a situation.
I'm all for people challenging predictions and assertions that aren't supported by facts. However I'd caution that by sharing only one side of a story you can support just about any position desired. Does a fool know they're a fool?
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Was this the old new math?
