Wral triangle housing report, Realtors what do you make of it? (Raleigh: real estate market, foreclosed)

[sls76]

Originally Posted by omamia

I'm wondering whether the foreclosure rate is like in the Triangle right now. I know it's no where near as CA, FLA, MD, and NJ. As a side note, in our old condo complex where we rented in San Diego, there are now 5 foreclosures out of about 200 condos. Selling a 950 sq ft. condo for 500,000 is just not sustainable in the long run. We also would have been evacuated if we were still living there now. I can't tell you how happy I am we moved to NC.

But I'm wondering are foreclosures up higher than usual. I'm seeing them posted on craigslist quite a bit.

Listings

and

this one, PREFORECLOSURE-MUST CLOSE BY OCT 24TH (broken link)

Will foreclosures increase as ARMS reset in the next coming months?

Here's the data for NC from August:
North Carolina foreclosure rate nearly doubles - Triangle Business Journal:
1 in 1131 households in NC in foreclosure v. national average of 1 of 510 nationally. The number in NC is trending up though.

[RaleighBoundGeek]

I recall reading most of the resets seem to happen at the end of October. How long it will take for the "resets" to cause issues (if they do - some companies have foresworn a reset this year) is anyone's guess (well anyone's but mine - don't have a clue).

On the plus side, considering we seem to have a lower incidence than most areas as far as high-rate mortgages, we might not get hit quite as hard. Still - since the number was around 20.5% of mortgages acquired for 2004-2006- we could get pretty hard. That's a LOT of households.

[omamia]

I was running the same numbers just as you posted this RaleighBoundGeek. Tried to give you rep points but apparently I've gotta spread it around first.

In Raleigh/Cary, there were 11,897 hi rate/suprime loans in 2006 which constituted 20.9% of all mortgages. If 17.5% of them fail, which is what the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham is predicting, there will be approximately 2080 homes in foreclosure in the Raleigh/Cary area.

In Durham there were 4232 hi rate/suprime loans in 2006 which constituted 21.9% of all mortgages. If 17.5% of them fail, there will be approximately 740 homes in foreclosure in the Durham area.

So in these two angles of the triangle we can expect to see ~2800 foreclosures from 2006 loans alone. I would have done CH too but don't have the data. If 2005 is similar we could expect that number to double so we're looking at 5600 loans in foreclosure from these two years.

Please don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this is CA, FLA, NV (that's such a straw-man argument) but wondering if these foreclosures will play a role as we move forward.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by omamia

I'm wondering whether the foreclosure rate is like in the Triangle right now. I know it's no where near as CA, FLA, MD, and NJ. As a side note, in our old condo complex where we rented in San Diego, there are now 5 foreclosures out of about 200 condos. Selling a 950 sq ft. condo for 500,000 is just not sustainable in the long run. We also would have been evacuated if we were still living there now. I can't tell you how happy I am we moved to NC.

But I'm wondering are foreclosures up higher than usual. I'm seeing them posted on craigslist quite a bit.

Listings

and

this one, PREFORECLOSURE-MUST CLOSE BY OCT 24TH (broken link)

Will foreclosures increase as ARMS reset in the next coming months?

Boomerang Properties, LLC

[RaleighBoundGeek]

Originally Posted by omamia

I was running the same numbers just as you posted this RaleighBoundGeek. Tried to give you rep points but apparently I've gotta spread it around first.

In Raleigh/Cary, there were 11,897 hi rate/suprime loans in 2006 which constituted 20.9% of all mortgages. If 17.5% of them fail, which is what the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham is predicting, there will be approximately 2080 homes in foreclosure in the Raleigh/Cary area.

In Durham there were 4232 hi rate/suprime loans in 2006 which constituted 21.9% of all mortgages. If 17.5% of them fail, there will be approximately 740 homes in foreclosure in the Durham area.

So in these two angles of the triangle we can expect to see ~2800 foreclosures from 2006 loans alone. I would have done CH too but don't have the data. If 2005 is similar we could expect that number to double so we're looking at 5600 loans in foreclosure from these two years.

Please don't get me wrong. I'm not saying this is CA, FLA, NV (that's such a straw-man argument) but wondering if these foreclosures will play a role as we move forward.

All that's left to say there is - OUCH.

[TuborgP]

http://ncjustice.org/assets/library/...ytestimony.pdf

A few months old but very informative. The impact of foreclosures will not be even and will hit some areas and populations with a knock out punch and others with a glancing punch. You guys know the Triangle better then I do. What I posted previously about Maryland reflects the disproportionate impact it is having there based on demographics.

[omamia]

Great info Tuborg!

I was surprised though how high end this guys listings are....maybe that's his specialty?

When you see a house like this in foreclosure....there's got to be an interesting story there:
List Pirce- $1,499,900
102 Buffwood Court, Cary, NC 27518

PRE-FORECLOSURE - ALL BRICK EXECUTIVE ESTATE. 4 CAR GARAGE, FINISHED BASEMENT W/THEATRE, REC ROOM, FAMILY ROOM, KITCHENETTE, HOME GYM & SAUNA. MAIN & LOWER LEVEL SCREENED PORCHES. BRAZILIAN CHERRY FLOORS, GOURMET KITCHEN W/ANTIQUED CABINETS. JACK&JILL BATH, TWO BONUS ROOMS ON 2ND FLOOR. UNF ATTIC 3RD FLOOR. GREAT OPPORTUNIY/INVESTMENT!
Call or email Colton- (919) 345- 2714
coltonshuell@remax.net

[dansdrive]

IMHO this thread is leaving me with the conclusion.
If you don't have to sell in the near term Don't.
If you have to 'price right' and the house will sell.
If you have to move here in the near term you have options, rent, lease, buy. Same options you always had.

What am I missing?

Oh yea, this is not CA, NV, NY, FL, MI, or DC as most of those get rain!

[urbywan]

Originally Posted by omamia

Great info Tuborg!

I was surprised though how high end this guys listings are....maybe that's his specialty?

When you see a house like this in foreclosure....there's got to be an interesting story there:
List Pirce- $1,499,900
102 Buffwood Court, Cary, NC 27518

PRE-FORECLOSURE - ALL BRICK EXECUTIVE ESTATE. 4 CAR GARAGE, FINISHED BASEMENT W/THEATRE, REC ROOM, FAMILY ROOM, KITCHENETTE, HOME GYM & SAUNA. MAIN & LOWER LEVEL SCREENED PORCHES. BRAZILIAN CHERRY FLOORS, GOURMET KITCHEN W/ANTIQUED CABINETS. JACK&JILL BATH, TWO BONUS ROOMS ON 2ND FLOOR. UNF ATTIC 3RD FLOOR. GREAT OPPORTUNIY/INVESTMENT!
Call or email Colton- (919) 345- 2714
coltonshuell@remax.net

Why is it I have no interest in these stories. In fact I am not even sorry for the people in that situation. I must be stone cold and mean... Ostentatious, a disgusting picture of needless excess.

[VickiR]

Originally Posted by dansdrive

IMHO this thread is leaving me with the conclusion.
If you don't have to sell in the near term Don't.
If you have to 'price right' and the house will sell.
If you have to move here in the near term you have options, rent, lease, buy. Same options you always had.

What am I missing?

Oh yea, this is not CA, NV, NY, FL, MI, or DC as most of those get rain!

Dansdrive, I must say...your conclusions are ACCURATE! Well, except for the rain part!!!

Not only is our real estate LOCAL, sometimes its by NEIGHBORHOOD!

Vicki