Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I close this Friday on my new Cary home from inventory at about 15% below the original asking price, and am putting my Massachusetts home on the market at 15% under tax assessment, 20% under what my realtor said was the peak and 25% under Zillow. I'm hoping it sells before I have to turn it into a rental.
YOY sales volume is down in both places, median asking price per MLS is down in both places, foreclosures are up in both places, albeit from historic lows.
Is somebody here arguing there's not a RE downturn?
"I don't know what the guy was smoking" for him to believe things were looking up. Reminds me of a similar statement he made about a month ago saying mortgage application were up and that the credit crunch had eased. I wonder what he thinks about that one in retrospect now.
I think we are fast becoming a nation of self serving 'spinmasters' with absolute total disregard for the truth. We only pick and choose what serves our interest while totally ignoring the bigger picture.
Sorta like ALL/MOST of us in City-Data. Thats what makes it fun. We get to put our perspective out there and the future will fall somewhere between. Fortunately no one is paying attention to us and basing financial decisions on what they read in here without investigating on their own at least I hope not. When people in positions of great responsibility do so thats another thing.
Let me clarify I am sure that in many of the threads people get great information I know I do. That information is helpful. However if any one is buying or selling based on what we non professionals say in here then ooppps.
It is not nor has it been a breeding ground for speculators.
Turbo, opinion on this will vary.... I do believe MOST homes purchased here are purchased by people who aren't speculating and of course we are no California but I have seen a HUGE increase in speculation and tear downs here in the triangle. For a couple of years now housing is all the talk in social circles and at work, there were new neighborhoods with for sale signs in them, places I have purchased have renters and owners with addresses in California, everyday I hear about a new condo development going up downtown....
The condos are something I marvel at; many I've seen are sold out the day new phases open. Who's buying 1100sqft for $400k? Speculators. Yeah there is a small and growing market for them, but we usually hear that the majority of people move to the triangle for a certain type of lifestyle and that lifestyle is in many ways contrary to what condo living is.
No, I don't believe we are California or Florida, but those places had to start somewhere. We just might be lucky enough that the market is correcting long before things festered to that point. The credit crunch just may force people into doing things that make sense.
Turbo, opinion on this will vary.... I do believe MOST homes purchased here are purchased by people who aren't speculating and of course we are no California but I have seen a HUGE increase in speculation and tear downs here in the triangle. For a couple of years now housing is all the talk in social circles and at work, there were new neighborhoods with for sale signs in them, places I have purchased have renters and owners with addresses in California, everyday I hear about a new condo development going up downtown....
The condos are something I marvel at; many I've seen are sold out the day new phases open. Who's buying 1100sqft for $400k? Speculators. Yeah there is a small and growing market for them, but we usually hear that the majority of people move to the triangle for a certain type of lifestyle and that lifestyle is in many ways contrary to what condo living is.
No, I don't believe we are California or Florida, but those places had to start somewhere. We just might be lucky enough that the market is correcting long before things festered to that point. The credit crunch just may force people into doing things that make sense.
Certain places in N. Raleigh and Cary went up 20% in a year's time, or even more. As for the median:
6/2007 $257,575
4/2006 $202,343
Granted it's 1 year and 2 months, but let's get real here. This is an almost 25% increase.
Sorry, have to jump in here, before reading through all the other comments ( this is from early in the thread ).
Figures don't lie, but interpretations do !! If the median price of homes in an area increases 25% from one year to the next, that does NOT mean that existing homes have increased in price by anywhere near that much. My guess is that there are a lot of new homes on the market and many are high-end homes, which drives up the median price without having that much effect on existing home prices.
I am currently looking for a home in the Raleigh area. What I see are lots and lots of new homes, and a fair number of existing homes on the market. And prices that are much lower than northern Virginia ( NOVA ) for comparable value. The NOVA bubble was very large ( I bought my last home in NOVA for less than $300K and it sold recently for $750K ). The Raleigh bubble is much smaller, from what I can see.
Sorry, have to jump in here, before reading through all the other comments ( this is from early in the thread ).
Figures don't lie, but interpretations do !! If the median price of homes in an area increases 25% from one year to the next, that does NOT mean that existing homes have increased in price by anywhere near that much. My guess is that there are a lot of new homes on the market and many are high-end homes, which drives up the median price without having that much effect on existing home prices.
I am currently looking for a home in the Raleigh area. What I see are lots and lots of new homes, and a fair number of existing homes on the market. And prices that are much lower than northern Virginia ( NOVA ) for comparable value. The NOVA bubble was very large ( I bought my last home in NOVA for less than $300K and it sold recently for $750K ). The Raleigh bubble is much smaller, from what I can see.
You are right...interpretation by people with no experience in buying houses is worth...NOTHING.
However in the case of this guy...he has totally taken the number out of context so it doesn't even make sense.
He is comparing a neighborhood that sells higher dollar per sq. foot by another neighborhood that sells lower dollar per sq. ft.
In this day and age, no only can you interpret things incorrectly but when "coyping and pasting" you can change the context!
And so that you understand, some of these guys have stated that they are only here to stir things up since no one knows them.
Not only do they NEED A LIFE but perhaps a job would help???
You are right...interpretation by people with no experience in buying houses is worth...NOTHING.
However in the case of this guy...he has totally taken the number out of context so it doesn't even make sense.
He is comparing a neighborhood that sells higher dollar per sq. foot by another neighborhood that sells lower dollar per sq. ft.
In this day and age, no only can you interpret things incorrectly but when "coyping and pasting" you can change the context!
And so that you understand, some of these guys have stated that they are only here to stir things up since no one knows them.
Not only do they NEED A LIFE but perhaps a job would help???
Vicki
Now the "gloom and doomers" not only spouseless, childless, and socially inept, but we need a job too .
Gosh, we are some real losers.
All of this is some faint attempt at a Jedi mind trick. Post some more NAR happy happy joy joy sound bites. They're quite entertaining.
"The data doesn't make sense to me and gives me a headache, therefore it can't be believed. Whatever is happening to me in the market is indicative of the entire market."
Everything is just fine. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Modest Recovery for Existing-Home Sales in 2008 as Credit Crunch Subsides
LAS VEGAS, November 13, 2007 - A modest recovery for existing-home sales is expected in 2008 as the impact of the credit crunch subsides, while pending home sales indicate near-term stability.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market will improve ...
...
I guess it all depends on what you read and who you believe!!!
Vicki
Yun's track record is pretty bad. He's only been serving as chief Economist for the NAR for 6 months or so, and already he's backtracking on his forecasts. In July he said this -
Not exactly how it played out even here, in one of the strongest markets in the nation. It looks like he's consistently predicting things will improve about 6 months out. When that doesn't happen 6 months later, again predict that things will get better in 6 months or so. Granted, eventually he'll be right, but it's not actually a prediction you can use.
Also, I like Yun's prediction from the same July article : "NAR projects existing-home sales to total 6.18 million in 2007 and 6.41 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006."
How's that compare with his current prediction? "Existing-home sales are projected at 5.67 million this year, edging up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006 which was the third highest year on record. "
His "prediction" for this year dropped by 500,000 sales in 4 months. That's nearly a 10% adjustment, and he was making the July prediction with the benefit of 6 months of sales data for the year he was predicting about. I don't think that bodes well for his abilities to predict sales for next year.
And prices? Here's Yun's July's guess : "Look for the national median existing-home price to ease by 1.3 percent to $219,100 in 2007 before rising 1.7 percent in 2008, ..."
His current guess : "Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300."
At least these are closer, percentage wise. But still, the trend is obviously for accelerating price declines. If the head cheerleader for the NAR's predictions are trending downward as more data becomes available, what would an unbiased observer predict?
Yun's track record is pretty bad. He's only been serving as chief Economist for the NAR for 6 months or so, and already he's backtracking on his forecasts. In July he said this -
Not exactly how it played out even here, in one of the strongest markets in the nation. It looks like he's consistently predicting things will improve about 6 months out. When that doesn't happen 6 months later, again predict that things will get better in 6 months or so. Granted, eventually he'll be right, but it's not actually a prediction you can use.
Also, I like Yun's prediction from the same July article : "NAR projects existing-home sales to total 6.18 million in 2007 and 6.41 million in 2008, in contrast with 6.48 million in 2006."
How's that compare with his current prediction? "Existing-home sales are projected at 5.67 million this year, edging up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006 which was the third highest year on record. "
His "prediction" for this year dropped by 500,000 sales in 4 months. That's nearly a 10% adjustment, and he was making the July prediction with the benefit of 6 months of sales data for the year he was predicting about. I don't think that bodes well for his abilities to predict sales for next year.
And prices? Here's Yun's July's guess : "Look for the national median existing-home price to ease by 1.3 percent to $219,100 in 2007 before rising 1.7 percent in 2008, ..."
His current guess : "Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300."
At least these are closer, percentage wise. But still, the trend is obviously for accelerating price declines. If the head cheerleader for the NAR's predictions are trending downward as more data becomes available, what would an unbiased observer predict?
Oh don't get me wrong. I don't believe any of them!!! I don't believe their "predictions" at all.
I was merely pointing out that you can find 10 articles about "where housing in the triangle" is heading and get 10 different OPINIONS.
I don't worry about it. I have no control over it. It doesn't affect me or my clients that need HOMES. The market will always tell us what price is right. Today's price may not be next month's price.
I personally thing anytime people are discussing "where things are headed" its just all opinion unless they have a crystal ball or they have a very special relationship with the higher powers!!!
The housing market in this area is currently righting itself. Builders raised some prices too fast. So that is being corrected. It produces some great "deals" for my clients buying new! Gotta love that!
THIS housing market is getting rid of Realtors that were just in the business for the money. Its getting rid of the discount brokers that did nothing for their money but make idle promises and its getting rid of lenders that should never have been allowed to overcharge buyers by giving them loans that were a bit on the shady side, even though the buyers would have done whatever it took to get a house. Its getting rid of the investors who just wanted to make a fast buck.
When I sold houses back in the early '90s, interest rates were 12% to 14% and yet, people still bought HOMES. People moved for a larger house, people moved for a smaller house, people moved into the area for a new job and people left the area for a new job. Its still happening.
The important thing right now is to make sure you know the neighborhood that you are buying into. Know the history (comps) and then make the best decision that you can, for your family, based on the research that you and your Realtor do. But wait. Thats always been the way it is.
Oh don't get me wrong. I don't believe any of them!!! I don't believe their "predictions" at all.
I was merely pointing out that you can find 10 articles about "where housing in the triangle" is heading and get 10 different OPINIONS.
I don't worry about it. I have no control over it. It doesn't affect me or my clients that need HOMES. The market will always tell us what price is right. Today's price may not be next month's price.
I personally thing anytime people are discussing "where things are headed" its just all opinion unless they have a crystal ball or they have a very special relationship with the higher powers!!!
The housing market in this area is currently righting itself. Builders raised some prices too fast. So that is being corrected. It produces some great "deals" for my clients buying new! Gotta love that!
THIS housing market is getting rid of Realtors that were just in the business for the money. Its getting rid of the discount brokers that did nothing for their money but make idle promises and its getting rid of lenders that should never have been allowed to overcharge buyers by giving them loans that were a bit on the shady side, even though the buyers would have done whatever it took to get a house. Its getting rid of the investors who just wanted to make a fast buck.
When I sold houses back in the early '90s, interest rates were 12% to 14% and yet, people still bought HOMES. People moved for a larger house, people moved for a smaller house, people moved into the area for a new job and people left the area for a new job. Its still happening.
The important thing right now is to make sure you know the neighborhood that you are buying into. Know the history (comps) and then make the best decision that you can, for your family, based on the research that you and your Realtor do. But wait. Thats always been the way it is.
Vicki
If I'm not supposed to look at statistics as our esteemed colleague Vicki has suggested, why would I believe what the comps say? Especially if they're consistently overstated based on concessions and "rebates" not reducing them?
I guess everyone's going to use the numbers that justify their own bottom line, eh?
These aren't the droids you're looking for. Move along.
Last edited by Frudy McRomson; 11-15-2007 at 08:25 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
.
