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Housing market in Durham North Carolina, average time on market, sales and listing up, interest rates low, selling increasing, home sales slow in winter, instability of housing market
I saw some statistics that SFR sales were off more than 50% for 4th Q 2007 from Q2 2007 in most areas of the triangle, like Raleigh North, SW Durham and Cary and inventory jumped 30%. So unless sales are exceptionally strong during the next few months, typically the slowest time of the year , prices are not going anywhere. Come spring, you probably will have more of a choice as inventory is sure to increase.
ch123, I suspect things will pick up sooner than that. Spring really begins in early March around here. There's something about daffodils and blooming bradford pears that makes people want to buy houses.
ch123, I suspect things will pick up sooner than that. Spring really begins in early March around here. There's something about daffodils and blooming bradford pears that makes people want to buy houses.
ch123, I suspect things will pick up sooner than that. Spring really begins in early March around here. There's something about daffodils and blooming bradford pears that makes people want to buy houses.
I'm not stupid about the macronomics involved, and also not brilliant, either. I don't live in the land of Pollyanna. I am concerned about the economic picture in the US. Not that I lose sleep over it. Anecdotally, I know, I'm too busy to lose sleep.
My take on the local market:
There is so much buying interest currently that it is amazing to work in the industry, then to read the stuff one reads on forums.
Yes, builders made some bad bets.
Yes, people buy in bad locations, "Because you get so much more house for the money."
Yes, people get greedy and stupid and leave an over-priced home on the market for 253 days because they paid $11 for a garden gnome, and, "By Gawwd, I'm not going to lose that money."
Those things happen too often, too broadly. But there is a very high level of Buying interest in our region.
Look at all the inquiries on this forum. They do not represent even the tip of the iceberg.
We put a listing under contract last night. The Buyer's agent said the activity in her Durham office is exceptional.
I have 4 closings scheduled in February, with possibly two offers to write this weekend. And several reasonable inquiries for homes.
If things pick up any more, active real estate agents will be dropping like flies from exhaustion. You will always have licensees who don't figure out how to engage clientele, and don't contribute to sales figures.
The "market" looks pretty good to me.
If things pick up any more, active real estate agents will be dropping like flies from exhaustion. You will always have licensees who don't figure out how to engage clientele, and don't contribute to sales figures.
The "market" looks pretty good to me.[/quote]
After the last couple weeks I had and expecially yesterday ( which I finally got home at 10pm ), the exhaustion comment I agree with. IMO things are fine here. I have been trying t plan a trip up north to visit family since th fall and am thinking MAYBE March. :-)
One would expect the demand here to lag the rest of the country. Most of the demand is driven by growth, and many people come here and rent for a period before buying. Once that "pent-up" demand burns off, things should slow. As it seems reasonable to expect the influx of people from other parts of the country will slow as their markets implode, and they are either upside down, or leave with little equity.
I'm going to have to agree with Mike and Debbie...things are going crazy here!
I read an article last week that said due to the "slowdown" in the housing market (insert sarcastic look here) that the good agents will be overworked and the agents that shouldn't be in the business will begin leaving to go back to their "real" jobs, which makes the good agents even more overworked!!!
Something to look forward to, huh, Mike and Debbie? Ha!
[quote=starla;2696185]I think this area has a few things going for it, or more appropriately, a few things not going against it, right now. First of all, exotic loans, and even ARMs, weren't as popular around here as they were in other parts of the country.
The reason for that is because home affordability is good. Exotic products were a result of low affordability and people stretching themselves to the point of impossible limits. That and with brokers committing fraud in order to make these people quality, bad solution.
This market will most likely be flat to a slight appreciation over the next 12 months, but the inventory glut is not as prevalent here. I see this market rebounding much more quickly. Loan performance is still showing this market with a 0-5% YOY appreciation.
In my opinion, those who are waiting are going to miss the opportunity of low interest rates and stable prices for the fascination of a further reduction in prices. They are paying attention to the national headlines and the media craze over bad news. The continued recession talk is now a National Pastime. Even with a recession, its likely to be short and by the 3rd quarter of this year with the amount of stimulus in the economy, growth will come.
I am an economist working in the housing industry.
I am a seller right now and the thing I am seeing is people are really dragging their feet, not wanting to make a decision. Someone has been to my home THREE times and is still undecided. No way that happens 6 months ago! But times is on their side. However, in the meantime the bond market has likely peaked and they have missed the rate bottom.
I think this area has a few things going for it, or more appropriately, a few things not going against it, right now. First of all, exotic loans, and even ARMs, weren't as popular around here as they were in other parts of the country.
The reason for that is because home affordability is good. Exotic products were a result of low affordability and people stretching themselves to the point of impossible limits. That and with brokers committing fraud in order to make these people quality, bad solution.
This market will most likely be flat to a slight appreciation over the next 12 months, but the inventory glut is not as prevalent here. I see this market rebounding much more quickly. Loan performance is still showing this market with a 0-5% YOY appreciation.
In my opinion, those who are waiting are going to miss the opportunity of low interest rates and stable prices for the fascination of a further reduction in prices. They are paying attention to the national headlines and the media craze over bad news. The continued recession talk is now a National Pastime. Even with a recession, its likely to be short and by the 3rd quarter of this year with the amount of stimulus in the economy, growth will come.
I am an economist working in the housing industry.
I am a seller right now and the thing I am seeing is people are really dragging their feet, not wanting to make a decision. Someone has been to my home THREE times and is still undecided. No way that happens 6 months ago! But times is on their side. However, in the meantime the bond market has likely peaked and they have missed the rate bottom.
If what you are saying is correct, and interest rates are set to rise, that would put further pressure on prices.
Japan had a 12 year housing correcting evaporating 75% of housing's value through that period of time. This is in a country with a high savings rate and higher manufacturing output per capita. Unemployment never really went into double digit land either (or at least for any considerable time if it did). So, a relatively stable job market, savings, and manufacturing country was unfortunate enough to see some of the most desirable real estate in Asia fall considerably.
Yeah, some might argue apples and oranges when comparing Osaka vs. Raleigh, but the fundamentals of purchasing assets don't change.
As for the media, if you tune into any financial show, the overall consensus is extremely bullish even in the face of recession (0.6% GDP given artificially low reported inflation numbers isn't a recession???). On Bulls/Bears today, all of the bulls ganged up on the one market bear and constantly interrupted him and claiming his theories are akin to black helicopters. It all depends on what you watch. Media has been noticably more blamed recently, but in reality has little effect on the fundmentals other than the possibility of producing some "noise" in the data by overbuying/overselling. In a down market, the media could report sugar and lollipops 24x7 and it wouldn't change much.
Like I said, I'm not discounting the idea that sales will be up in the spring/summer and good realtors will thrive. I just question the simultaneous dynamic of flat or appreciating prices and lower inventory numbers. Then again, as Ben Bernanke debases the dollar (slightly off topic but still relevant) you might see nominal prices stay relatively flat, but the decline is still very real on an inflationary scale.
Last edited by julebuggy; 02-02-2008 at 10:44 AM..
I guess we'll have to see if all of the anecdotal stories about lots of buyers show up in the stats of actual sales. I've heard the same stories for the past year or so and that activity wasn't reflected in the sales numbers (sales way down over that period while inventory's way up). It'd be nice if they were right and this was the one market in the entire country not affected by the subprime meltdown and builders dumping inventory to stay out of bankruptcy. Considering I've heard these claims before and they weren't consistent with the numbers then, I'd still be cautious about taking them too much to heart now.
If the agents want to give us some updated year-over-year numbers (newer than the Dec numbers) I'd be happy to see them. Or, we can wait and see if there's a massive improvement in sales numbers compared to last Jan. But at this point it still looks like the usual suspects (agents talking their game and sellers hoping against hope) trying to pump the market using anything but actual sales numbers.
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