April 2009 Triangle Real Estate Stats (Durham, Cary: for sale, month to, houses)

[KCfromNC]

As usual, the info comes from TMLS Market Dynamics. I don't have any more data than that site provides. I do have copies of the older reports to see trends more than 2 years old, though, if anyone is interested.

All comparisons are to April 2008 unless otherwise noted

Overall Triangle

• Sales are down 30% and down 46% compared to 2 years ago
• Inventory is down 8%, but still up 10% from 2 years ago
• There are 7-8 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 9% and down 11% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 4% and down 5% from 2 years ago
• Properties under contract are down 15%

Wake County

• Sales are down 35% and down 49% compared to 2 years ago
• Inventory is down 5%, but still up 22% from 2 years ago
• There are 7 months of inventory on the market
• Average price is down 10% and down 11% from 2 years ago
• Median price is down 3% and down 5% from 2 years ago
• Properties under contract are down 18%

Durham County

• Sales are down 20% and down 37% compared to 2 years ago
• Inventory is down 12% and down 10% from 2 years ago
• There are 5 months of inventory on the market.
• Average price is down 3% and down 6% from 2 years ago
• Median price is up 3% and flat from 2 years ago
• Properties under contract are down 6%

Johnston County

• Sales are down 22% and down 42% compared to 2 years ago
• Inventory is down 16% and down 1% from 2 years ago
• There are 9 months of inventory on the market.
• Average price is down 10% from both a year and two years ago
• Median price is down 6% and down 3% from 2 years ago
• Properties under contract are down 23%

Orange County

• Sales are down 49% and down 62% compared to 2 years ago
• Inventory is down 6% but up 17% from 2 years ago
• There are 7 months of inventory on the market.
• Average price is up 3% and down 7% from 2 years ago
• Median price is up 11% and up 6% from 2 years ago
• Properties under contract are down 15%

Note - I'd be cautious reading too much into the Orange County numbers. There are 30% fewer sales than last month. This is way off the trend for the rest of the area, which may mean that the data from the end of the month hasn't made it into the report yet. With less than a hundred sales a month, even missing 10 or so sales would really move the data.

On to my analysis (you get what you pay for, here)

Sales continue to be slow compared to the last decade or so, but they do appear to be following a normal seasonal trend. They were basically the same as last month, plus or minus a few percent, which is more or less normal. It's not getting worse, but it's not improving much either.

For entertainment purposes only, I did a bit of number crunching to come up with sales on a population-adjusted basis for Wake County. I assumed 3.5% a year population growth averaged throughout each month, so that there are now 28% more people than in Jan 2002.



The most interesting thing was how the sales from 2002-2008 are prettyThis shows how 2002 was a bit slow, the bubble really went crazy in 2005-2006, 2007 and much of 2008 wasn't too bad, and then things fell off a proverbial cliff in late 2008 and stayed there through 2009. Again, don't take this too seriously, but I found it interesting.

Inventory continues to improve a bit. Ignoring Durham, which seems to have a stronger market than the rest of the counties, inventory is down from last year's records, but still above 2007. The month to month levels have generally been flat, so while the number of houses sitting isn't growing out of control the current sales levels aren't making too much of a dent.

I'm not sure what to make of the months of inventory numbers. They're calculated using the number of houses under contract, since that's the best predictor of future sales. But the number of under contract from last month is way higher than the number sold this month when you'd expect that they'd be about the same - the houses under contract last month become this month's sales. It could be that as more data comes in from closings at the end of the month that some of the under contracts will change to sales. Or it could be that more houses under contract are failing to close and are heading back on the market. Either one of these will mean that the months of inventory is too low, so take the stat with a grain of salt.

The price data continues to jump around month to month, but it's more consistently negative as time goes on. I'll keep mentioning that both measures used in this report will be affected by changes in the mix of houses sold as much as it will by actual changes in value. Still, the fact that the number has been negative more often than not even as we move into the strongest part of the selling season is probably telling us something.

Next month - we should continue towards the spring/early summer sales peak if all goes according to plan. Stay tuned.

[dedratermi]

Interesting and thanks for sharing. In my own neighborhood in central Cary there are currently 2 houses for sale, both new listings this month. There have not been any houses for sale in my neighborhood since last fall. But both of these new listings are wildly overpriced (higher than anything else in the neighborhood has ever sold for), so it will be interesting to see how long they languish on the market or if the prices get cut to something realistic.