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Texdav, I'm not sure what you're even talking about....it took me a few minutes to realize "reabtes" meant rebates...can you use spell-check on this board? Honestly, it would make it easier to understand your posts.
Since there was a HUGE jump in new home sales in April, it comes as no suprise they are down in May. The trend line shows a bottom. Just like stocks don't go up everyday in a bull market, neither does real estate. BTW, home builder stocks all went up today.
We had zero showings on our property in May but we are now averaging about 2 showings a week in June. Hardly proof of anything on wide scale but at least based on my own little sample June numbers should look better.
New home sales don't always give a great indication since they only account for about 5% of homes sold.
Existing home sales were down 2.2% from April 2010 (5.79 million units) to May 2010 (5.66 million units) but were up 19.2% above May 2009 (4.75 million units).
New and used house sales figures are accounted for in different ways. For whatever reason, new houses get counted when the contract is signed. Since the housing welfare money stopped flowing for contracts signed after the end of April, this latest data shows the effect of cutting off that government subsidy.
Used houses, on the other hand, don't get counted until they close. You'll have to wait a few months to see the results of the housing welfare ending - buyers have until the end of June(?) to close and still get a handout, so you won't see what the end of that money does to the market until the July numbers come out some time in August.
The numbers you're quoting still include a bump from the No Realtor Left Behind money. The fact that they are down April->May is kind of ominous - fewer people were buying houses even when the government was paying them to do so. I imagine that they will slow down even more once that money goes away.
Since there was a HUGE jump in new home sales in April, it comes as no suprise they are down in May.
This is wrong. Sales are almost always higher in May than in April. Check out the data if you don't believe me.
And second, you're ignoring the fact that this is the biggest April to May drop in nearly 50 years of data. That's significant even if you weren't wrong about sales normally going down.
I know you want to believe that we hit a bottom in 2009, but the way to figure that out isn't to ignore the reality of what's happening now.
New and used house sales figures are accounted for in different ways. For whatever reason, new houses get counted when the contract is signed. Since the housing welfare money stopped flowing for contracts signed after the end of April, this latest data shows the effect of cutting off that government subsidy.
Used houses, on the other hand, don't get counted until they close. You'll have to wait a few months to see the results of the housing welfare ending - buyers have until the end of June(?) to close and still get a handout, so you won't see what the end of that money does to the market until the July numbers come out some time in August.
The numbers you're quoting still include a bump from the No Realtor Left Behind money. The fact that they are down April->May is kind of ominous - fewer people were buying houses even when the government was paying them to do so. I imagine that they will slow down even more once that money goes away.
If the new home sales are for contracts signed and not closed then this has really nothing at all to do with tax credit unless you are assuming they will be able to get the home built and closed in 2 months.
Bottom line is this thread was premature since as you have stated we will have to wait a few months to see what the affect is. Especially since as I have stated new home sales are are very small percentage of overall sales.
There's also a discrepancy with the way the HBTC was implemented this time around. There's a lag between the deadlines for settlements and contracts.
It takes a significant deterioration to get the lowest sales level on record when the market still has easy comparisons against spring 2009. The homebuyer tax credit kicked in in the spring and sales didn't peak until July and October.
Fun with statistics! Either side can use the numbers to try and make a point and I agree the true story is yet to be told. It will likely take until Fall/Winter.
I honestly feel sorry for those that think we've bottomed and hope the lending restrictions stop them from stretching their budget... Otherwise, the double dip will give us a whole new set of underwater folks - we have enough of those already.
It's my bet that those calling the bottom based on "indicators" have skin in the game and are hoping above everything else. How you look around to what is happening in the economy (here and abroad) and convince yourself that the recovery of the housing market is imminent boggles my mind. It's like thinking you're rich with a new credit card.
If the new home sales are for contracts signed and not closed then this has really nothing at all to do with tax credit unless you are assuming they will be able to get the home built and closed in 2 months.
Funny, home builders seem to agree it was the tax credit expiring :
Lennar Corp.’s home sales are down 20 percent to 25 percent this month compared with a year earlier as the expiration of a government tax credit for buyers saps demand, Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said.
“The entire market knew there’d be a slowdown as we came off the tax credit,” Miller said on a conference call with investors today. “It’s just that the reality of it doesn’t feel good.”
(Bold my emphasis)
Who are we to believe?
Quote:
Bottom line is this thread was premature since as you have stated we will have to wait a few months to see what the affect is.
... on used house sales. If you're going to tell me what I think, at least try to be accurate.
Quote:
Especially since as I have stated new home sales are are very small percentage of overall sales.
They behaved the same way the last time housing welfare money ran out, followed a few months later by a drop in used house sales. So history says that there's certainly a relationship.
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