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I wonder if some of the increase is due to sellers pricing for the market now? I see many news blurbs about how there are tons of reduced price houses out there so maybe buyers are seeing this as an opportunity to get in and want to do so while there's a bunch of inventory to choose from.
Many prospective buyers are likely coming out of the woodwork thanks to the significant interval decrease in price.
The question is if your clients will be able to obtain finance for those houses. Any of you mind sharing your client's household salary in relation to the offering price?
I'm curious to see if someone making 60K a year is still trying to buy a 450,000 house.
I think it's about the same here.It's just that people were sidetracked by Dec happenings. I am getting calls from people who just came back from their trips and looking again.
I'm really hoping this isn't just a blip on the radar screen, but I have been crazy busy since the middle of November ~ not with new listings, but with Buyers!!!
Anybody else seeing an increase in activity? At first I thought it was just the usual roller coaster that every agent experiences from time to time. But I'm seeing more pending sales on MLS, too. Of course it's going to take a couple of months before the "pendings" actually close and the data reflects any increase in sales . . . but I'm thinking I'm seeing a bit of a trend . . . unless I just need to adjust my rose colored glasses.
It's just you. No blips visable to the naked eye. Actually there are lots of blips but they are on the negative side.
I'm really hoping this isn't just a blip on the radar screen, but I have been crazy busy since the middle of November ~ not with new listings, but with Buyers!!!
Anybody else seeing an increase in activity? At first I thought it was just the usual roller coaster that every agent experiences from time to time. But I'm seeing more pending sales on MLS, too. Of course it's going to take a couple of months before the "pendings" actually close and the data reflects any increase in sales . . . but I'm thinking I'm seeing a bit of a trend . . . unless I just need to adjust my rose colored glasses.
I don't think it's just you. Don't know about other parts of the country, but as I've mentioned on our local boards, the inventory is definitely going down in both Tucson and Phoenix. Actually, it's going down in CA and NV, too. Not sure about FL. Obviously I'm not a professional in your field, but I've been watching the housing picture unfold like a hawk for personal reasons (chances are good I've read more than you - from serious reports, through all builders' estimates, quarterly reports, earnings calls, to every goom-and-gloom blog there is) since April of last year. And I'm a well-informed optimist (others may choose pessimist as a better word )! Hope I don't jinx it by saying that. Opening my mouth tends to work this way...
I don't think it's just you. Don't know about other parts of the country, but as I've mentioned on our local boards, the inventory is definitely going down in both Tucson and Phoenix. Actually, it's going down in CA and NV, too. Not sure about FL. Obviously I'm not a professional in your field, but I've been watching the housing picture unfold like a hawk for personal reasons (chances are good I've read more than you - from serious reports, through all builders' estimates, quarterly reports, earnings calls, to every goom-and-gloom blog there is) since April of last year. And I'm a well-informed optimist (others may choose pessimist as a better word )! Hope I don't jinx it by saying that. Opening my mouth tends to work this way...
I guess I'm reading reports that are 180 degrees different than what you're reading.
Most reports show record high inventory in much of california. There hasn't been any long term increase in sales/# of units sold. Also, many foreclosures are still on the radar screen going into '08.
The question is when will much of CA reach the bottom?
I guess I'm reading reports that are 180 degrees different than what you're reading.
Most reports show record high inventory in much of california. There hasn't been any long term increase in sales/# of units sold. Also, many foreclosures are still on the radar screen going into '08.
The question is when will much of CA reach the bottom?
Whether this data is to be trusted is anybody's guess... I see the count going down on the Tucson MLS for a fact and in the zip code I'm interested in as well.
Whether this data is to be trusted is anybody's guess... I see the count going down on the Tucson MLS for a fact and in the zip code I'm interested in as well.
Sierra, you proved my point w/that housing tracker.net site. Lets take your example for instance. Riverside, CA.
If you interpret the data correctly, you will see inventory is down in the later part of the year just like previous years. You only see it as being down "the past couple of months, or recently". As history shows, you will start seeing a reported increase in inventory starting this month like most parts of the country.
That is why I always present or ask for data on a YOY or "seasonal adjusted" basis. Its much more accurate.
Bottom line, Riverside still has a RECORD amount of inventory out there (22% higher than last year YOY.) Like I've said as nauseum here, until that inventory is cleansed, prices will still drop closer to historicals. Its going to take a long time.....
There is no "sugar coating" this or hiding the fact that CA is still deep in trouble. And the rest of the country won't recover until markets like this, Las Vegas, NY/NJ, FL, & the NE start stabilizing....
Last edited by CouponJack; 01-06-2008 at 08:35 PM..
Sierra, you proved my point w/that housing tracker.net site. Lets take your example for instance. Riverside, CA.
If you interpret the data correctly, you will see inventory is down in the later part of the year just like previous years. You only see it as being down "the past couple of months, or recently". As history shows, you will start seeing a reported increase in inventory starting this month like most parts of the country.
That is why I always present or ask for data on a YOY or "seasonal adjusted" basis. Its much more accurate.
Bottom line, Riverside still has a RECORD amount of inventory out there (22% higher than last year YOY.) Like I've said as nauseum here, until that inventory is cleansed, prices will still drop closer to historicals. Its going to take a long time.....
There is no "sugar coating" this or hiding the fact that CA is still deep in trouble. And the rest of the country won't recover until markets like this, Las Vegas, NY/NJ, FL, & the NE start stabilizing....
As I said, I'm not keeping a close eye on CA and it may very well still be in very deep trouble because the run-up in prices as well as the speculation and use of "creative" loans were way higher. It seems to me as if my local market is picking up, though. Yesterday saw the strangest thing - in the zip code I'm watching the listing price of a pre-foreclosure house previously listed for 155K (way low) went up to 170K. Also, commercial building in ot its way up big time, too. I'd imagine those investors are no fools, either. Guess we all will live to see.
Another reason I'm of this opinion is the builders' projections. I think we can agree they do way more precise and farsighted research than any of us. I'm looking at my builder's forecast. These estimates have been around at least since the spring of last year (I mean they don't keep changing them like the NAR does).
I'm not saying that there's any rosy/insane (think '05) future any time soon. I'm only suggesting that their forecast seems to coincide with my own observations, at least here. When the mass media overexposes certain trend, the trend is usually already over. Wish I were paying attention to that in '05... because I happen to have experience with that year, too.
As I said, I'm not keeping a close eye on CA and it may very well still be in very deep trouble because the run-up in prices as well as the speculation and use of "creative" loans were way higher. It seems to me as if my local market is picking up, though. Yesterday saw the strangest thing - in the zip code I'm watching the listing price of a pre-foreclosure house previously listed for 155K (way low) went up to 170K. Also, commercial building in ot its way up big time, too. I'd imagine those investors are no fools, either. Guess we all will live to see.
Another reason I'm of this opinion is the builders' projections. I think we can agree they do way more precise and farsighted research than any of us. I'm looking at my builder's forecast. These estimates have been around at least since the spring of last year (I mean they don't keep changing them like the NAR does).
I'm not saying that there's any rosy/insane (think '05) future any time soon. I'm only suggesting that their forecast seems to coincide with my own observations, at least here. When the mass media overexposes certain trend, the trend is usually already over. Wish I were paying attention to that in '05... because I happen to have experience with that year, too.
First you misinterpret the data you provide countering your argument, then you tell us that your predicting what's going to happen by what the BUILDING industry tells you?
And you expect us to take you seriously?
Don't you realize that the homebuilders and the NAR have a vested interest in predicting rosier conditions than reality? Don't you remember what they were predicting this time last year? Inventory was rising tremendously but sales started cooling and they predicted a "rebound" in '07. Most homebuilder execs don't have the guts to honestly say what's truly going on just like the NAR.
C'mon, back up your points w/something legitimate here....
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- from serious reports, through all builders' estimates, quarterly reports, earnings calls, to every goom-and-gloom blog there is) since April of last year. And I'm a well-informed optimist (others may choose pessimist as a better word 
