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Even though it more of a reality than the latest NAR prediction, I still can't fathom prices declining deep into 2010.
See you back in Q4/'08 / 1Q/09.
I was just hypothesizing
I think it goes FAR beyond 2010, and it really caused me to rethink my recent refi, even in the supposedly bulletproof Raleigh, NC area. Figured it was ok for me since I have a tiny mortgage and the eventual rent deflation won't usurp my small monthly mortgage payment.
I'm not the best guy to bring to parties . Fortunately, I don't talk about economics or the housing market when I'm having fun
From ALL I see and read The NAR is "ALWAYS" positive, they need people to think better is just around the corner or people will not buy. Just look at everything they (press releases) put out since and befor the problem started:it's up next quarter. Credibility is shot,they could be right this time but that would be luck though they will sooner or later
I don't understand where Merrill's numbers come from and the NAR can't be serious. We havnt even seen the worse of the foreclosures. The peak of the subprime ARM's adjusting won't occur til May of 2008. It is usually the case that those homeowners that are going to default on their loans due to the increases in payment default with in 90 days. This puts the peak in foreclosures most likely some time in late 4th quarter 2008. We will be through 90% of the subprime ARM's that are scheduled to adjust at this point. Most markets will not see a decline in value once these foreclosures are run off. I would say the NAR is about a year overly optimistic. Now some markets like Sacramento California and Sarasota County Florida have along way to fall if Merrill is talking about these markets perhapse they could be right. However, I feel like as soon as the credit markets stable which, I expect to be 1st quarter 2009, we wont see anymore declines. I am seeing alot of pent up demand in my market from buyers that are frustrated with the lending industry. Alot of people are being told they are approved for a mortgage to be told just two days later they cant get a loan. These people are sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to straighten out. They will come back when things clean up.
Alt-A and Option ARM resets pick up where the subprime ARMs trail off. Those take us out to the end of 2011. I don't know if that's the end of the craziness or if the mortgage guys just don't have the stomach to look any further out beyond then...
From ALL I see and read The NAR is "ALWAYS" positive, they need people to think better is just around the corner or people will not buy. Just look at everything they (press releases) put out since and befor the problem started:it's up next quarter. Credibility is shot,they could be right this time but that would be luck though they will sooner or later
Alt-A and Option ARM resets pick up where the subprime ARMs trail off. Those take us out to the end of 2011. I don't know if that's the end of the craziness or if the mortgage guys just don't have the stomach to look any further out beyond then...
How conveeeeenient for the current administration that the huge bulk of resets don't initiate until March or April and likely won't result in mass foreclosures until after the election, regardless of what the government or Fed does. I also see from the chart that they run all throughout 2008. I am (once again) seriously reconsidering the refi and may walk from the closing table to sell/sit on sidelines instead. If I knew I'd be in Raleigh for years longer, I wouldn't worry. But, as it stands, 1-2 years and I may be bye byes, reluctantly . What to do???
One thing is for sure, it'll take a few months to a year before those resets have a rippling effect.
From ALL I see and read The NAR is "ALWAYS" positive, they need people to think better is just around the corner or people will not buy. Just look at everything they (press releases) put out since and befor the problem started:it's up next quarter. Credibility is shot,they could be right this time but that would be luck though they will sooner or later
They always try to spin things in the most positive light possible (its almost laughable how extreme they've gotten). Its very simple. The better things seem to be, the more volume for their industry which in turn brings in more $$.
Whether its merrill or the NAR, just follow the money.....
They always try to spin things in the most positive light possible (its almost laughable how extreme they've gotten). Its very simple. The better things seem to be, the more volume for their industry which in turn brings in more $$.
Whether its merrill or the NAR, just follow the money.....
That's right CG, the more money that comes out of real estate, the more volume and money for the stock market industry. Merrill Lynch and the rest of the wall street pack have had many years of experience at doing it to the people, and they're at it again.
And every time the government cracks down on one practice they find ways around it to keep up the deceptive practices.
well said, Fredlu33! If somebody comes up with a list about what Larwrence Yun (So called chief economist of the National Association of Realtors)said for the past 12 months, it will be easy for us to decide which forecast is more accurate!
Alt-A and Option ARM resets pick up where the subprime ARMs trail off. Those take us out to the end of 2011. I don't know if that's the end of the craziness or if the mortgage guys just don't have the stomach to look any further out beyond then...
We wont see even one tenth of the problem with Alt-A that we have seen with sub-prime. Especially with low fed funds rate. Biggest issue with sub-prime is that almost all of them are fixed to the LIBOR and not our domestic Prime Rate or Fed Funds Rate. Alt-A paper is mostly fixed to Prime Rate in U.S. Not to mention that the sub-prime paper adjustments are just insane most rising at least 3 percent and some a whopping 6 percent.
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. What to do???
