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I'm evaluating which suburban town would be best to buy a house and am evaluating a myriad of factors like schools, crime and even housing market health. Funny thing is that while some towns in my area rank well in this criteria, they still have a population decline of 3 to 7% over the past 15 years vs. other nearby towns. I'm at a loss to explain it but since more people are moving out than in, I'm scared off a bit.
I'm evaluating which suburban town would be best to buy a house and am evaluating a myriad of factors like schools, crime and even housing market health. Funny thing is that while some towns in my area rank well in this criteria, they still have a population decline of 3 to 7% over the past 15 years vs. other nearby towns. I'm at a loss to explain it but since more people are moving out than in, I'm scared off a bit.
If the population decline coincides with any kind of "age related" factor it might not be anything to worry about -- many developments hit a peak population when the young families have all the kids in local schools and then as the older kids head to college and move out mom & dad eventually sell to another young family and it takes them a little while to have 3 kids or whatever.
On the other hand, if there has been a loss of major employers or sectors of employment with NO corresponding growth in replacement sectors that is a very different situation -- unchecked that will lead to a spiral of declining population and increased need for public services for low income people left behind...
Other shifts, like expansion of any noxious land uses, such as would happen when power plants, garbage dumps, refineries, airports and similar "bad neighbors" expand also result in people moving away.
I would also pay special attention to the various time on the market of homes in EACH price category -- if things are slowing down in the price brackets far above your target that could single a loss of desirability to higher income buyers, which generally is a more important factor than desirability in lower price points. The "floor value" for entry level real estate can climb while there are declines in the more pricey categories when things like lending rules and rates make it easier for new buyers to get a mortgage then to rent...
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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I would consider this to be a red flag, demand is what causes you to gain equity for eventual resale, vacant homes can attract crime, and often lack of kids means poor schools. In our fast-growing city, empty nesters who bough new in the 80s-90s are selling, and are being replaced buy younger people with kids - for a big net increase in residents. We are also getting a lot of Asian (mostly Indian) immigrants coming for high tech jobs, bringing parents with them. In fact, the new developments are typically 3,00-4,500 sf with dual master suites to accommodate multi-generational families. Our population is up 47% from 2000, and our home value is up by 353% since we bought in 1993. For a comparison to population decrease, in the extreme, look at Detroit data.
FWIW, household sizes (on average and not in every case, of course) tend be larger among poorer people. A slightly declining population can indicate that an area is on an upswing. It really just depends, and you have to have more information about the area. A very large population decline, however, usually does point to some endemic problem that is driving people away. Lack of jobs. Crime. Whatever.
Merrick, NY, Wantagh, NY, Seaford, NY, Lynbrook, NY
Merrick is not a "real" town. It is a CDP. West Hempstead is growing.
Wantagh is not...
Seaford is not... and is part of Nassau County which is growing.
Lynbrook is a Village and not a Town. It is growing.
Median age is 40 for most of these places. That is high.
The overall population numbers are very small.
Just a few spouses dying while the survivor remains in the house would affect the numbers.
I am also guessing that there is very little (or zero) empty land upon which to build new houses.
P.S. This part of Long Island is not Detroit nor Buffalo.
Two statistics which might be more meaningful than straight populations numbers are: number of vacant homes and number of owner-occupied vs. rentals.
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