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I know that the Shiller guy from yale has a real estate index. I have tried looking online, but was not able to find historical real estate prices by year and by state. Does anyone know where this info can be found? I think the real estate market in the us increases by about 3-4% per year but have no solid evidence of this.
Also I have heard that there is some controversy to the Shiller index because it is based on scant historical data and there are problems taking into account inflation any thoughts?
If you're in another area, you can look at the information from the FHA (fhfa.gov). Click on the "House Price Index" along the top of the page. This index is less useful than Case-Shiller for several reasons, but on the plus side it's available for every metro area in the nation. For all it's flaws, unless you're willing to pay a lot of money to someone like First American (loanperformance.com) it's probably the best you're going to get.
I'd look at who pays the bills of the people complaining about the Case-Shiller index before taking those complaints too seriously. Obviously the National Association of Realtors isn't going to be happy with a measurement that shows prices dropping at 15% a year - but that doesn't mean the measurement is wrong.
If you're in another area, you can look at the information from the FHA (fhfa.gov). Click on the "House Price Index" along the top of the page. This index is less useful than Case-Shiller for several reasons, but on the plus side it's available for every metro area in the nation. For all it's flaws, unless you're willing to pay a lot of money to someone like First American (loanperformance.com) it's probably the best you're going to get.
I'd look at who pays the bills of the people complaining about the Case-Shiller index before taking those complaints too seriously. Obviously the National Association of Realtors isn't going to be happy with a measurement that shows prices dropping at 15% a year - but that doesn't mean the measurement is wrong.
That is good information. I was surprised by how difficult it was to get reliable housing information, I kind of thought it would be as available as stock quotes. But it doesnt seem like it is compiled regularly, but I guess there is no incentive for someone to publish this information for free.
How do most real estate professionals get this information? I was looking into the profitability of buying a house but wasnt sure what appreciation assumption to use. It is hard to determine profitability for buying a house for this reason.
That is good information. I was surprised by how difficult it was to get reliable housing information, I kind of thought it would be as available as stock quotes. But it doesnt seem like it is compiled regularly, but I guess there is no incentive for someone to publish this information for free.
How do most real estate professionals get this information? I was looking into the profitability of buying a house but wasnt sure what appreciation assumption to use. It is hard to determine profitability for buying a house for this reason.
In some places the data is relatively easily available. In Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson reasonable records are kept and published by the Real Estate Boards. However in other places they are secret. I don't really know why but that is how they do it.
I like Case Shiller. I doubt that NAR has any particular problems with CS. The rule of any such metric is to show the truth. CS is one of those.
When one takes into account appreciation you cross the line from investor to speculator. There is no particular reason to believe that prior appreciation indicates future appreciation as the last year or so has demonstrated. On a five year basis virtually the entire SW is negative. And that is only made worse by including inflation. I would expect the next five to be better...but who knows?
I like Case Shiller. I doubt that NAR has any particular problems with CS. The rule of any such metric is to show the truth. CS is one of those.
Criticism of Case-Shiller earns two pages out of 20 in the NAR's most recent set of talking point for marketing themselves. "Affirming the NAR's Credibility" only gets one page. I'd say they have some problems with it.
Personally, I think the National Association of REALTORS® has done more to hurt the reputation of its agents than help them. Anytime an agent waves their REALTOR® flag, I take everything they say with a pound of salt and/or run the other way.
Criticism of Case-Shiller earns two pages out of 20 in the NAR's most recent set of talking point for marketing themselves. "Affirming the NAR's Credibility" only gets one page. I'd say they have some problems with it.
Yeah, I didn't have many issues with ths document, although they do say real estate is local, then they go on and paint a broad brush about local markets. They probably could have done a better job at some of their answers, but overall I didn't have issues with it...I thought it would be helpful to REALTORS.
Yeah, I didn't have many issues with ths document, although they do say real estate is local, then they go on and paint a broad brush about local markets. They probably could have done a better job at some of their answers, but overall I didn't have issues with it...I thought it would be helpful to REALTORS.
The statement below kind of paints a too rosey picture..
Over 10 years, a $10,000 investment in the stock market at a normal 10 percent market
rate of return would yield $23,600. The same investment as a down payment on a
$200,000 home at a normal appreciation rate of 5 percent would return nearly five times
the stock market return, at $110,300.
What 5% return are you referring too where has this happened?
Unfortunately you need to pay 1.5% in property taxes. 1% in upkeep and another 0.5% in insurance. So the 5% (which is not even accurate) is whiddled down to about 2%, that doesn't even beat inflation.
Also...
- 6% commission to sell
- Mortgage insurance
- Points to get mortgage and closing costs
YOU LOSE 31,000$ !!! at the end of 10 years. The above statement that you make 10x the amount in stocks is complete crap.
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