is 3% swr the new 4% ,an interview with dr wade pfau (teenagers, restaurant)

[Tetto]

Originally Posted by Robyn55

I have a friend who's a large account size portfolio manager. He has his accounts at Fidelity. I suspect he can buy the stuff at Fidelity on the institutional side (but doubt he does). I'll ask him when I talk to him next. IMO - Fidelity is much too conservative when it comes to the kind of individual bond fixed income things it offers to its clients. For years - it wouldn't even offer any longer term callable federally insured CDs! Which led to the ridiculous situation that I couldn't buy a 20 year callable CD at Fidelity - but could buy/sell naked options .

FWIW - I spoke to my E*Trade bond desk today too. Their clients are flipping/trading yesterday's new PR issue like crazy. Here's the trading history:

Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board::EMMA

It's a whole lot of trades for a muni!

Note that the minimum purchase amount in yesterday's IPO was $100k (and there were other income/net worth requirements for individual investors too). Also - a lot of E*Trade's clients in this office are large sophisticated investors who tend to trade bonds (often on leverage). I don't deal with the office very often these days. Because it's easier and cheaper to do the kind of plain vanilla buy and hold stuff I do on line.

OTOH - if I wanted to buy COFINA bonds - I could do it on line at E*Trade (Zionsdirect too) - with a minimum purchase of $5k face amount of bonds. Note that bonds as tenuous as COFINA bonds - well there are dozens of issues. And you have to be concerned about whether you have first lien bonds - second lien bonds - etc. Originally - PR was thinking about issuing yesterday's issue as a COFINA instead of a GO issue. But the new COFINA issue would have to be a higher yield/less attractive 3rd lien COFINA bond. So it went with the GO.

Now maybe you have a full time muni bond credit quality analyst in house. I don't . And I don't have the time (or care) to sift through piles of junk to find one issue that might not be total garbage - and might not go under - one that might yield me a few extra $$$ a year in income. I do spend a fair amount of time when it comes to this bond stuff - but you're the one who says you spend like an hour a week on portfolio management. That amount of time isn't consistent with analyzing/managing a junk bond portfolio (which is why - when it comes to junk - I only buy/hold/trade JNK and HYG on a technical basis).

A suggestion. If you have any possible interest in buying individual fixed income issues - whether you're talking brokered CDs - munis - corporates (I do the first 2 individually - not corporates) - etc. - open an account at E*Trade and/or Zionsdirect. And do your searching/buying there (using the bond searches as a gateway to lots of specific issue information). I re-examine the issue every year or two. As of today - E*Trade and Zionsdirect are the only 2 brokerage firms in the US that will give you access to every secondary market bond issue available on Bonddesk (which is one of the largest - if not the largest - bond clearing house in the US today). At Bonddesk prices - without markups.

You will pay the same price an institution would pay - plus a commission. $9.95/purchase at Zionsdirect - $1/bond at E*trade. Which is why I prefer Zionsdirect .* Of course - there's another wrinkle when it comes to secondary market fixed income. It's not like stocks - where everyone selling right now is trying to get X (plus or minus pennies). One guy might be trying to sell a block of 25 at 102 - another a block of 25 at 100 - another a block of 25 at 98.

So you have to do your homework. Check out all the lots that are available. Also check them against recent prices (because some idiots will price a block 5 points above a trade 2 days ago). Pricing is much more transparent today - and all available when it comes to munis for free on EMMA. There was a front page WSJ article a couple of days ago about how muni pricing/markups/markdowns for retail investors was opaque and "mom and pop" were getting screwed. Which is total BS today IMO. Lazy investors and lazy reporters make for a bad combination when it comes to reporting the truth (I used to be a "check out the truth when it comes to individual muni investing stuff" source for Charlie Gasparino when he worked at the WSJ - and I don't think he would have let misstatements like this appear on the front page of the WSJ). You have to do your homework - and it takes a little time. But all the information is out there - and easy to locate if one takes the time to find it.

Also - when it comes to primary market issues. With brokered CDs - you can get all at E*Trade and Zionsdirect - and many (but not all) at Fidelity today. WRT new issue munis - Fidelity is the only firm of the 3 that offers access to any primary market issues. There are quite a few - but far from all - and I can't generalize about them. Except that none seem to be total junk when issued. You can sign up for Fidelity email alerts when it comes to new issues - and put in a buy order for the bonds when they're issued. The reason it's good to do that is many bonds are offered originally at prices like 97 or 98 - and - once they come to market a few weeks later - brokerage firms - especially "full service brokerage firms" - will try to sell them to you at par (100) and act like they're doing you a big favor. OTOH - if you start looking at these primary market issues - you'll see lots with bonds that have 5% coupons - but are priced at 110 or more (with - of course - much lower yields to maturity than 5%). Why? So mutual fund managers can buy these tranches and advertise high current yields to gullible mutual fund investors. Robyn

*Note that you can make a few bucks simply by moving money in some cases. E*Trade offers cash bonuses in various amounts if you open accounts of various sizes:

https://us.etrade.com/open-account/popular-accounts

Fidelity offers FF miles and free trades. Zionsdirect doesn't offer a thing - except the best commissions . I sometimes move a little money around every few years to pick up an extra $500 - or 50000 FF miles. It's a much safer way to put a few extra dollars in my pocket than junk munis .

OTOH - note that the primary reason I don't keep all my money in one brokerage firm is because I never want to be in a financial crisis and find that most of my money is in a frozen/screwed up position in one brokerage firm. I think it's totally imprudent to keep all of one's money in one place (and the office managers at the firms I deal with agree with me).

Sweet mother of God, my head is spinning after reading all of that! You obviously have a tiny bit of experience with this stuff

[TuborgP]

Isn't the presidents plan to change overtime rules going to impact corporate returns and thus ROI from investments from pension funds, retiree's etc to workers. What are reasonable assumptions anymore.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by Tetto

Sweet mother of God, my head is spinning after reading all of that! You obviously have a tiny bit of experience with this stuff

I've been doing this stuff for 30 years now .

But don't get intimidated. Print out my message - read it multiple times - and perhaps do some of what I suggested. Even though you'll have to learn a little at a time - step by step - and it will take a while - it's a worthwhile endeavor IMO. Even if you don't wind up doing anything fancier than coming up with a portfolio of brokered CDs in an IRA account - or buying a few AA/AAA state general obligation bonds yielding > 4% (getting 3.4% on a 10 year brokered CD or 4+% on a high quality state GO muni today is better than holding cash at .1%). Note that I am pretty much plain vanilla when it comes to my personal fixed income.

I think one thing that might blow a lot of peoples' minds if they haven't looked at on line fixed income lately (or ever) is what's out there now. This is the best website I know for exploring the "supermarket" without opening an account:

https://www.zionsdirect.com/products...bond-store.php

The inventory/prices are a few days old - and you can't buy without an account - but you'll get a good idea of the possibilities. Robyn

[Tetto]

Originally Posted by Robyn55

I've been doing this stuff for 30 years now .

But don't get intimidated. Print out my message - read it multiple times - and perhaps do some of what I suggested. Even though you'll have to learn a little at a time - step by step - and it will take a while - it's a worthwhile endeavor IMO. Even if you don't wind up doing anything fancier than coming up with a portfolio of brokered CDs in an IRA account - or buying a few AA/AAA state general obligation bonds yielding > 4% (getting 3.4% on a 10 year brokered CD or 4+% on a high quality state GO muni today is better than holding cash at .1%). Note that I am pretty much plain vanilla when it comes to my personal fixed income.

I think one thing that might blow a lot of peoples' minds if they haven't looked at on line fixed income lately (or ever) is what's out there now. This is the best website I know for exploring the "supermarket" without opening an account:

https://www.zionsdirect.com/products...bond-store.php

The inventory/prices are a few days old - and you can't buy without an account - but you'll get a good idea of the possibilities. Robyn

Thanks for the info being very conservative, I generally work with what I understand, but I'll tackle this and become a little more educated.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by Tetto

Thanks for the info being very conservative, I generally work with what I understand, but I'll tackle this and become a little more educated.

Good luck! FWIW - I was listening to Cramer on CNBC yesterday "humming a few bars" about his new book. He's much more into equities than bonds. And picking individual equities at that. Which isn't my personal cup of tea. But he was advising people to do very much the same thing on the equities side that I'm talking about on the fixed income side. Namely - really digging into the info that's available about individual equities/securities (e.g., following conference calls) and putting together a portfolio. Which he admitted took a fair amount of work - especially when you don't know what you're doing at the beginning.

I'm not sure I agree with his approach to equities (picking individual stocks) - because a very substantial % (like 75-80% or more) of the return when it comes to individual stocks is the function of overall market performance and sector performance as opposed to individual stock performance. But I do agree with the part about the hard work and learning how to do things yourself. Even if you wind up deciding to get the help of a financial adviser - it's always useful to have a basic understanding of what the adviser is (or should be) doing in terms of your goals/risk tolerances/etc. Robyn

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

Isn't the presidents plan to change overtime rules going to impact corporate returns and thus ROI from investments from pension funds, retiree's etc to workers. What are reasonable assumptions anymore.

This question is a bit too "micro" for me. I can't even figure out the industries that might be most affected. Here are some of the jobs:

Salary Information: Nine Jobs Most Likely to Offer Overtime Pay

What are the industries where you think you're most likely to find jobs like this? Robyn

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by Robyn55

This question is a bit too "micro" for me. I can't even figure out the industries that might be most affected. Here are some of the jobs:

Salary Information: Nine Jobs Most Likely to Offer Overtime Pay

What are the industries where you think you're most likely to find jobs like this? Robyn

Great article online today answering that question. I will try to link it later I on my phone now. This is a disaster in the making. Article the other day on the struggles of the restaurant industry and the need for a circuit city moment. The chains most at risk were also the same ones mentioned in the most abusive over time article. Folks like Darden, Subway etc etc. other industries were security, janitorial. I believe ten altogether.

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

Great article online today answering that question. I will try to link it later I on my phone now. This is a disaster in the making. Article the other day on the struggles of the restaurant industry and the need for a circuit city moment. The chains most at risk were also the same ones mentioned in the most abusive over time article. Folks like Darden, Subway etc etc. other industries were security, janitorial. I believe ten altogether.

Well - one of the CNBC commentators has remarked in recent days that you don't have to worry about overtime if you don't have a job. And I am reading increasingly about how many chain restaurants are trying to - and are - reducing - numbers of employees by using things like tablets and other computerized stuff for ordering to reduce the number of employees they have. Then there is the model of ordering at a counter when you walk into a restaurant - sitting down and waiting for your number to be called - picking up your food - and then sitting down again and eating it. I've seen this model at a few chain restaurants in recent years - as well as at some highly regarded non-chain local places. Perhaps - eventually - a critical vestigial element of "fine dining" will be the notion of having a server. Robyn

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by Robyn55

Well - one of the CNBC commentators has remarked in recent days that you don't have to worry about overtime if you don't have a job. And I am reading increasingly about how many chain restaurants are trying to - and are - reducing - numbers of employees by using things like tablets and other computerized stuff for ordering to reduce the number of employees they have. Then there is the model of ordering at a counter when you walk into a restaurant - sitting down and waiting for your number to be called - picking up your food - and then sitting down again and eating it. I've seen this model at a few chain restaurants in recent years - as well as at some highly regarded non-chain local places. Perhaps - eventually - a critical vestigial element of "fine dining" will be the notion of having a server. Robyn

Yeah the food industry is taking a few hits on the chin

[lenora]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

Yeah the food industry is taking a few hits on the chin

I think it's only the working class/middle income type restaurants that are having major problems (in addition to the working class/middle income type retail stores).