is 3% swr the new 4% ,an interview with dr wade pfau (inheritance, fighting)

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by Cameron60

I really wonder if there is even one person who has retired allocated and withdrew 3%, 4% or whatever the historical data says, passed away 30 or so years later and had the amount of money left as expected per the calculators.

Isn't the important thing bring to pass away with the bills paid and the account balance being positive? Isn't what a safe draw down rate about?

[mathjak107]

nah , the important thing is to time it so well when you die you bounce the check to the undertaker .

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

nah , the important thing is to time it so well when you die you bounce the check to the undertaker .

I am passing on that choice and hoping to pass by a wide margin.

[Cameron60]

In much of reality a person retires with x amount, year one spends a lot more than he should have on whatever, year two his son has a problem and needs $100k, year three his elderly uncle passes away and he inherits $500k.

Life happens

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

nah , the important thing is to time it so well when you die you bounce the check to the undertaker .

I want to talk to you five years in to retirement and see if you have turned the savings and investment off. My bet is you are still investing with your SS, wife's pension etc.

[mathjak107]

i was hoping to do that but the sale of that lease rights deal killed a big portion of what was like a pensionized income. i just mailed over 100k in estimated taxes from the proceeds today .

i wasn't planning on taking ss until fra so marilyns small pension and ss won't pay the bills so we will be pulling from investments now.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

i was hoping to do that but the sale of that lease rights deal killed a big portion of what was like a pensionized income. i just mailed over 100k in estimated taxes from the proceeds today .

i wasn't planning on taking ss until fra so marilyns small pension and ss won't pay the bills so we will be pulling from investments now.

Sure and once the others kick in? Let me remind you we are now entering our next stage and you will to one day.

[mathjak107]

perhaps when ss kicks in but it will depend on returns,rates and inflation. it was far easier when we had the constant rent coming in.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

perhaps when ss kicks in but it will depend on returns,rates and inflation. it was far easier when we had the constant rent coming in.

You have a mixed source of retirement income some fixed and some not. Your fixed stream is greater than most. By increasing your equity/bond portfolio you can decrease your draw down rate or get more for the same amount. You have the ability to enhance your hedging against a town turn or financial shock. No Ned to answer here but at age 66/70 your combined income from wife's pension, Both SS and annuities will be?

[Robyn55]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

Bada Bing! And that may mean San Fran or A place like Northern Virginia etc.

For us as lawyers - it meant Miami in 1972 (which - back then - was a far cry from Miami or anywhere in Florida - or most parts of the US for that matter - in 2014). We were earning pretty big bucks in Miami 8 years out of law school when a lot of our classmates in "white shoe" law firms up in the NE didn't make partner after working 100 hours a week for 6-8 years.

We in the legal profession then were on the cusp of one of your paradigm shifts (although I only see it now in retrospect). I can't even recognize the legal profession landscape today (because it's so different than what existed when I got out of law school).

Of course - during our high earning years - we were paying pretty huge taxes too (50% on "earned income" - up to a max of 70% on "unearned income"). Interest rates were high/very high then as well. Which is kind of how I stumbled into bonds (munis in particular). I didn't have time to be an active stock manager (and index funds/ETFs/etc. were for the most part just a glimmer in some peoples' eyes then). And - after being burnt with some brokerage firm bond offerings (they were pools of bonds with specific maturity dates - can't remember the exact name for them off the top of my head now - maybe unit investment trusts?) - I decided to do things myself best I could at the time (which still pretty much involved using a full service brokerage firm).

I have watched things like on-line bond trading evolve over the decades - and I now feel like a kid in a candy store. Even when it comes to my relatively limited equities stuff - I love most of the relatively new-fangled ETFs - and the ease of buying/selling parts of the market that I care to deal with with almost no buy/sell spreads - very low/no commissions. On line - with a "click". When the market crashed in 1987 - to buy or sell was a multi-day proposition at best at most places. I did try day trading for a while about 15 years ago - but that wasn't a good fit for me at all. Longer term position trading works a lot better.

FWIW - I took a look at that Bogleheads stuff you mentioned. I wouldn't last on that chatboard for 10 minutes. Because - over the course of a couple of decades (and I check from time to time) - Vanguard - because of its mutual funds - has always seemed to discourage the buying/selling of individual bonds. IOW - it "talks its book". It also discourages buying/selling individual bonds by having mostly not very good inventory and/or not very good prices. Fidelity - despite its emphasis on "in house bond funds" - is better than Vanguard - but worse than than some brokerage firms that don't have proprietary funds. OTOH - there are some firms - like Ameritrade - that don't offer proprietary funds - but are worse in terms of bonds than Fidelity.

It's pretty much just like stocks. The firm(s) that work best for you depends on what you do. I am 100% content with my long term position trading on the Fidelity trading platform. In terms of pricing/executions/commissions. I trade some things - like the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) - where I don't even pay a commission. But - if I were a day trader - Fidelity would probably be far from my first choice of a trading platform.

Anyway - I digress. In terms of expected investment returns. TODAY - I can get 3.4% on brokered 10 year non-callable federally insured CDs (ok in tax sheltered accounts). More than 4% on longer term very high quality state GO munis (could get close to 5% at the end of 2013).* So - for someone who doesn't want to spend the next 5 retirement years worrying about - or learning how to manage - a portfolio - why not invest in things like this (where you'll be almost certain to hit a safe 3-4% safe withdrawal rate)? Robyn

*Two comments here. First - most states have state income taxes. Florida (where I live) doesn't. I don't recommend a 100% state concentrated muni bond portfolio regardless of state income taxes. A specific note WRT NC - where you live - is the bonds there have always tended to trade on the "rich" (more expensive) side (perhaps because of a combination of prudent state finances and a somewhat high personal income tax rate). Second - the Boglehead people are clueless when it comes to muni/treasury spreads. They don't understand how the fed is distorting yields on the taxable side of things by its bond buying.