CNBC reports Stanford Center on Longevity take on best retirement strategy (physically, retired)
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most people have no option to delay because they do not have the resources to lay out safely if they retire and delay ss .
the fact is a balanced fund and filing early would provide the same level of income as delaying ss if you had to spend down invested assets , maybe even more depending how long you live .
the choice really narrows down to do you want to be more dependent in markets ,rates and inflation for the rest of your life or more dependent on longevity and what amounts to a gov't bond for the rest of your life .
the 70% larger check at 70 makes you far less dependent on markets and rates . both delaying and filing early can see about a 5% real return by age 90
Mathjak, if I’m interpreting the graph right, the person is behind by 100k after 8 years of delaying. Correct? What age 62 payout is assumed to arrive at that number?
there is no such thing as no risk . in fact the highest risk , which failed more often than not is not using equities .
YOU WOULD BE MAKING A HUGE MISTAKRE IGNORING INFLATION .
at 4% inflation adjusted , using fixed income only , failed almost 60% of every 30 year period we have had since 1871 .
50/50 has passed 95% of them very nicely . equities (diversified funds ) become one of the safer choices over the long term unless you want to draw 3% or so from savings . to me that is inefficient use of your savings .
Math... I know you at a numbers guy. BUT I thought I asked you NOT to mention inflation. I have tracked my/our own personal inflation rate for over 10 years of retirement and it has been <1% or basically Flat. I KNOW the pundits say 4%. But it is NOT in my/our world. I pay less property taxes on my house than I paid 10 years ago. Insurance has gone up a little but not that much. Those are the biggest expenditures we have other than food. I have not tracked food, but I have tracked overall outlay and on average as I will say again, for us has been within. 1%. Which Is why I use that figure for Firecalc. for Now. It may change, I am tracking a little more this year.
We live in a not so low COL area and I have trouble spending $50k a year. PLUS I like toys, Drones, Computers, 3D Printers and usually replace them every year. I get a New car EVERY 3 years also (Lease).
If we live another 30 years and spend $125k on average per year, which we do not, we will not run out of money. I do not need or want the stock market risk anywhere near my nest egg, Why, because WE DO NOT NEED IT. I sleep better that way. The moral being, if our nest egg is big enough for US, we do not need or want the extra risk.
no one is saying you must have equities , you don't if you stick to 3% or below INFLATION ADJUSTED .
inflation has been low for some , but for others it has been brutal , especially rent , real estate taxes and healthcare costs .
markets have been great too since 2008 . should we base our planning on results since 2008 ?
of course not .
in case you don't know , the worst failing group was those who retired in 1965/1966 . inflation was low and not even on the radar as an issue .
inflation was 2.50% -3.50% . who would have guessed in 3 years time it would have doubled and by 1974 it would be 11%. it was crushing to a retiree. but with inflation so low who ever expected a 4x increase coming .
there is a reason there are guidelines for planning and drawing an income . we plan around the worst outcomes and hope for the best...
when you go against the guidelines that are in place it may work for you , or eventually it may not , but what you use is your personal choice , but it should certainly not be anything anyone else should do nor calculate anything off of if it goes against what modern retirement research dictates . at least initially in your retirement plan . .
the biggest reason no one should take the amount they have and divide by the years is sequence risk . fixed income has sequence risk because it can have so many negative real return years .
there are years you will have to spend way more to cover the same expenses while getting no real return on fixed income . to divide simply by the number of years you would need no inflation and the exact same , interest rate and real return every year , year after year with no negative real return years .
you can do what you like but i do not advise others to follow .
use a good calculator like firecalc or fidelity for your rough outline and fine tune it through retirement .
i know for us it is not about dying with the biggest pile , we want the maximum amount we can safely and comfortably spend and enjoy . anything better than worst case will leave you with to much money so raises are suggested along the way . but like building a house in a storm area . build it to the highest standards to weather the worst you had not just the weather you had the last 10 years .. at least you are starting out on the right foot
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-25-2018 at 08:51 AM..
I would say the need to delay retirement until age 70 or the need to work part time in retirement are NOT "winning" strategies. The winning strategy is to live within means and to take advantage of compounding by saving even a little beginning early in life. Supplementing social security with withdrawals from investments is not exactly a novel idea.
I think what we have here is another 20 something, crank out words for cheap, writer with nothing of value to say.
couldn't rep you so +1
I see my 90+ year old mother with dementia in a facility who has gone through her assets paying for the facility and is now on SS and a medicaid type basis. So if I follow the same path and live to be 90 + and sadly have dementia then how is $200 etc more helpful when it all is turned back over to the government eventually? They don't have to pay until you are 70 and they take it back when you are 90.
From reading you all's posts I understand that many husbands' biggest concern is protecting their wives income when alone, so that I get. The longer you wait, the higher her portion of SS. and I think it is sweet that you put your spouses in such careful regard.
But for a single, I am not so sure it makes that big of a deal in the long run.
Math... I know you at a numbers guy. BUT I thought I asked you NOT to mention inflation. I have tracked my/our own personal inflation rate for over 10 years of retirement and it has been <1% or basically Flat. I KNOW the pundits say 4%. But it is NOT in my/our world. I pay less property taxes on my house than I paid 10 years ago. Insurance has gone up a little but not that much. Those are the biggest expenditures we have other than food. I have not tracked food, but I have tracked overall outlay and on average as I will say again, for us has been within. 1%. Which Is why I use that figure for Firecalc. for Now. It may change, I am tracking a little more this year.
We live in a not so low COL area and I have trouble spending $50k a year. PLUS I like toys, Drones, Computers, 3D Printers and usually replace them every year. I get a New car EVERY 3 years also (Lease).
If we live another 30 years and spend $125k on average per year, which we do not, we will not run out of money. I do not need or want the stock market risk anywhere near my nest egg, Why, because WE DO NOT NEED IT. I sleep better that way. The moral being, if our nest egg is big enough for US, we do not need or want the extra risk.
Nice humblebrag. If you can spend $125k per year for 30 years, why are you even in this thread?
My dad died at 56, my current FIL died at 55, my ex-FIL died at 65, and my ex-boyfriend's stepdad died at 60. In fact, only two of my close male relatives have lived past 70! Yes, OF COURSE, there are no guarantees as to how long someone will live, but sometimes it is NOT wise to wait until 70 before you retire -- especially if one hates one's job, has one's home paid off, and has enough to live on, even if it means foregoing a lot of travel, a country club membership, etc. (And, personally, I don't consider either of those things a requirement for happy retirement.)
My paternal grandparents both lived to 92, and when they retired when my grandfather was 65 and my grandmother was 60, their only assets were their own home (paid in full) and had about $20,000 in savings, if that, and their combined Social Security -- their only retirement income -- in the mid-80's was less than $800. When they retired, they still had more than their original $20,000, their home was still unmortgaged, and even though they each spent an average of two weeks in nursing homes before they died, my grandmother left an estate of close to $150k -- and this was after she lived ten years on just her social security alone, which was only about $350 a month! Yes, this WAS about 25 years ago, but I am just saying that not everyone needs thousands of dollars a month in income to live well in retirement. (My grandparents' only expenses were groceries and utilities, and some occasional clothing and gifts, and home repairs and maintenance. However, they never went anywhere very far, so their car expenses were very minimal, and after my grandfather died, my grandmother took the bus, which was free for seniors at that time.)
I am just very tired of reading so many articles and opinions stating that everyone needs to have a million dollars in savings and investments in order to retire, which might lead many people to NOT retire at all before they died.
Last edited by katharsis; 01-25-2018 at 05:45 PM..
I am just very tired of reading so many articles and opinions stating that everyone needs to have a million dollars in savings and investments in order to retire, which might lead many people to NOT retire at all before they died.
True.
It's really very simple:
If you track your expenses each month for several years, you will have an idea of how much money you need to live each month. It's just basic math.
how much you need is easy . figuring out how to get that income so it is a safe ,secure ,consistent stream is not so easy .
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I have tracked my/our own personal inflation rate for over 10 years of retirement and it has been <1% or basically Flat. I KNOW the pundits say 4%. But it is NOT in my/our world. I pay less property taxes on my house than I paid 10 years ago. Insurance has gone up a little but not that much. Those are the biggest expenditures we have other than food. I have not tracked food, but I have tracked overall outlay and on average as I will say again, for us has been within. 1%. Which Is why I use that figure for Firecalc. for Now. It may change, I am tracking a little more this year.
