New grocery store in Roanoke? (Lynchburg, Blacksburg: upper-class, 2013, neighborhoods)

[Trevor92]

Originally Posted by cam4vt

I know someone who has "connections" with food city and there has been no mention of a Roanoke store as of 2 weeks ago when they had a corporate meeting.

If all three stores are the same I'm going with the Walmart neighborhood store.

I was excited when this thread started out but I've become very discouraged after reading the comments. I would agree this sounds like a Walmart Neighborhood market rollout rather than Food City or anybody else.

I've been considering several jobs in the region in Salem, Roanoke, or Blacksburg and have been disappointed that the region is dominated by Walmart and Kroger, the two largest grocery chains in the country and the always disappointing Food Lion. We've already decided if we did move we would drive to Pulaski for our stock-up grocery trips at the Food City there.

I shop there now because they're one of the last few regional grocers based in Southwestern Virginia that buys a lot from local farmers. Fingers crossed in a few more years they can start a build-out. With Food Lions closing and the number of people that just aren't interested in buying groceries from Walmart, I definitely think there's the population to justify another traditional supermarket competitor throughout the region to Kroger, especially if they advertise their SW VA roots. This is in addition to the niche markets targeted by Whole Foods and Trader Joes. Roanoke/Blacksburg/Lynchburg has similar demographics to Knoxville where all of these businesses already compete and then some. Being based so close, you'd think building stores in these populated areas would be a priority. But I'm guessing the closing of the Super-Dollars in Christiansburg and 1 of their previous 2 Lynchburg locations has them focusing on other areas.

[Wish It Wasn't So...]

I'm in commercial real estate in Virginia. Here are a few things to understand:
1. The perception among almost all national chains is that the only locality west of Richmond and south of NoVa that is a money-maker is Charlottesville/Albemarle. For instance, the Whole Foods in Charlottesville has been one of the best performing stores on the East Coast. Developers look at this fact (and others). They want to locate where the money is and Charlottesville makes the best case in that geographic footprint.
2. Roanoke is ALWAYS a mystery. Profit margins of all national chains are extremely low in Roanoke. And it never makes sense. For whatever reason, the demographic data that works everywhere else just doesn't seem to fit Roanoke when chains locate there. Another for instance: Five Guys usually is a huge money maker. They're pretty picky in dishing out franchises (they've gotten a little looser in recent years). Yet, the Five Guys in the Roanoke region closed. They're trying again at Tanglewood, we'll see. But their Lynchburg location (smaller metro area) has done better than either the Salem or Tanglewood locations. Obviously Ukrops was another retail misfire that has really hurt the region's ability to attract other retailers/grocers/etc.
3. While it's ancient 19th century history as to location, who would have ever guessed that 30 miles was such a big deal? Every developer I know that looks at the region always seems to say, "If only Virginia Tech was located in Roanoke County." Which is true. If VPI was in Roanoke County, you'd have a major metro on your hands with the synergy of a large research university and a city with good bones in terms of downtown. That 30 mile distance is just too much to overcome for a lot of residents. As much as the region wishes it was Roanoke-Blacksburg, it just isn't. Your average Blacksburg resident probably doesn't come to Roanoke more than 5 times a year. Unless they're VT sports fans, your average Roanoker doesn't go to Blacksburg more than 2 times a year. That's not a "region" in terms of commercial projects.
4. Finally, even 60 miles presents problems. You wanna know another major obstacle to growth? Bedford. Bedford is a moderately wealthy county which would look good to some chains. But at least a third of Bedford looks to Roanoke and the other portion looks to Lynchburg. So it's impossible to count Bedford for head count/demographic purposes for either Roanoke or Lynchburg.

I agree with you that when I look at the Roanoke area, it SEEMS like it should be so much more in terms of commerce, retail, and food options. But those 4 factors, while not exclusive, play a big role in the difficulty the region faces.

[roanoker 4]

Roanoke is a mystery as far as commercial real estate is concerned. I remember when Panera Bread and Fresh Market opened. They were the top sales grossers in those chains. The Cook Out, Steak n Shake are very successful. Roanoke has a huge supply
Of local restaurants, especially around the downtown market. I believe Roanoke & Blacksburg will eventually grow into one
Dynamic region as more growth occurs on Rt460. They have even named the airport Roanoke Blacksburg Regional Airport as there seems to be more synergy between the two valleys. Just in the last several years new announcements of Blacksburg start ups are energizing Roanoke as well as the new VT Medical School. I live in Roanoke and visit Blacksburg several times per month for dining, entertainment and I am looking forward to the new IMAX being built there. Roanoke DOES need more chain restaurants, shops (especially higher end womens stores) but I can't believe we don't have the demographics as a Knoxville,
Greensboro I think we have a deficit of land for strip malls and out of town developers fail to see the real picture here. Roanoke City, NOT Roanoke County wants commercial development so that issue also complicates the picture.

[cam4vt]

Compared to 10 years ago.. heck 5 years ago Roanoke has made major strides in terms of getting looks from better retail. With more people moving from up north that are used to certain stores I think it won't be long before we see some sort of change in what retail comes in. (it has started happening sorta with H&M, Five guys giving a 2nd shot etc) Whole foods who wouldn't even look this way at one time was in talks with valley bank on the old building on franklin (bad bad bad location IMO), and it just fell through. Not good, but its more then we used to get. Roanoke city really doesn't have that much land for tons of strip malls to pop up and retailers to go in. The next big development for shopping in the city will be the other side of VV mall running along side 581. The city can say they will make it a mixed land use all they want, but I'd wager with enough interest that becomes an extension of the VV shopping area. JMO

[sregorat3]

Just announced yesterday... A grocer with fuel will be locating on Timberlake Rd several miles west of Lynchburg. Name "couldn't" be disclosed, but the project is being undertaken by a company who uses The Hatch Group as one of their developers. Must be a regional roll out, because a second location is already going through the red tape to locate in Forest. WalMart Neighborhood, it is.

[IrieC]

I wish they would build a direct farmer's market grocery store. A non-genetically modified grocery store, with fresh foods everyday. Walmart cares more about profit rather than selling rotten foods. Can't find recently fresh foods

[lynchburg88]

Originally Posted by IrieC

I wish they would build a direct farmer's market grocery store. A non-genetically modified grocery store, with fresh foods everyday. Walmart cares more about profit rather than selling rotten foods. Can't find recently fresh foods

They are actually building a small organic grocery market in Cornerstone in Lynchburg called Auburnlea Farms Corner Market stocked with meat and produce from local farms. Slated to be open in November.

[Trevor92]

Originally Posted by sregorat3

.... WalMart Neighborhood, it is.

I could very well be wrong. But with Walmart Supercenters as plentiful as they are, I just don't see these Walmart Neighborhood Markets being profitable. Will they really generate tens of thousands of dollars in new grocery sales per store daily that they wouldn't get in their existing Supercenters anyway to justify the build-out? I would guess it more likely that these stores will divide out the existing Walmart shoppers and may catch a limited number of people that go to the closest store possible.

Very interesting thoughts as well from cam4vt, roanoker 4, and wish it wasn't so on the Roanoke market in general. My understanding of the Ukrops store from posts I've read is that the Ukrops store had good traffic flow but the overhead was too high. Even too high for another chain to pick up the tab after several price drops leading to the Carilion Clinic taking it... So perhaps the key for a new grocery chain is to build reasonably priced stores to target specific neighborhoods that fit demographics rather than the entire city?? Perhaps in the coming years a Food City or Martin's can break in by building in Blacksburg or Radford where the disposable income appears to be and many students are familiar with those stores and then being opportunistic with Food Lion or Walmart Neighborhood Markets that go bust in Roanoke and Lynchburg...

[sregorat3]

Originally Posted by Trevor92

I could very well be wrong. But with Walmart Supercenters as plentiful as they are, I just don't see these Walmart Neighborhood Markets being profitable. Will they really generate tens of thousands of dollars in new grocery sales per store daily that they wouldn't get in their existing Supercenters anyway to justify the build-out? I would guess it more likely that these stores will divide out the existing Walmart shoppers and may catch a limited number of people that go to the closest store possible.

Very interesting thoughts as well from cam4vt, roanoker 4, and wish it wasn't so on the Roanoke market in general. My understanding of the Ukrops store from posts I've read is that the Ukrops store had good traffic flow but the overhead was too high. Even too high for another chain to pick up the tab after several price drops leading to the Carilion Clinic taking it... So perhaps the key for a new grocery chain is to build reasonably priced stores to target specific neighborhoods that fit demographics rather than the entire city?? Perhaps in the coming years a Food City or Martin's can break in by building in Blacksburg or Radford where the disposable income appears to be and many students are familiar with those stores and then being opportunistic with Food Lion or Walmart Neighborhood Markets that go bust in Roanoke and Lynchburg...

I doubt they'll go bust in Lynchburg. Also, when did Radford become so flush with disposable income?

[Trevor92]

Originally Posted by sregorat3

....Also, when did Radford become so flush with disposable income?

If your question is sincere I'm not sure I can help you being the one thats looking at job options in the area. There are others that know the history of the area better than I do.

If you're peppering in sarcasm, the demographic data available on this city data website shows a number of similarities between Radford and Blacksburg. Radford has a listed population of 16.7k with 5.2% growth and a median family income of 29.1k. According to the map higher incomes appear to be associated with college professors and the hospital. Blacksburg has a population of 42.6k with 7.7% growth and a median family income of 30.6k and a similar map distribution. Roanoke, Salem, and Christiansburg all have higher medians but a lesser percentage on the upper end. Again, I was just stating my wishes, and hesitations about the region in the retail aspect. The demographics of the region really aren't bad and are comparable to areas with many more shopping options and the above posts have helped tremendously in allowing me to gain insight into why that's the case. I would agree though that Blacksburg would be a more likely initial foothold than any other city.