Solar in SD (lease, home, price)

[ViennaSausages]

Originally Posted by Think4Yourself

Yeah, but the Obama administration is only asking for a 31% tariff. If the subsidy is 50% but the tariff is only 31% (and only if they win the WTO case, which may take 10 years) then they're still up 19%. Oh, and they still get to dump for the next decade or so. Silly me but I thought the punishment should at least be worse than the crime.

Oh, FWIW, they don't have to win anything at the WTO. US law dictates that orders go into place when the US International Trade Commission and the US Department of Commerce says that they should go into place. Any WTO appeal happens 3 to 4 years down the road...

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

I would hold off based on what you wrote. Prices and efficiency will he at a more reasonable price poin in th next 5 years or so.
There are some reputable companies out there and some good quality installs but you are paying a premium.

The business itself seems somewhat like marshall law. Little to no regulation in regards to what you are signing up for. Some pretty creative financing tactics that I dont think does any homeowner any favors in the long run.

I would buy all led bulbs if possible and try to put lights on timers in the meantime. Honestly look at the real savings involved vs knowing full well the technology will be progressing faster than what exists now.

I had "heard" of a local outfit that sold units at a net cost of about 10g but can't find it now.

Originally Posted by Think4Yourself

We haven't pulled the trigger as I tend to be a procrastinator ( ) but our neighbor installed four solar panels on their roof and claim their SDG&E bill has gone down by 2/3rds (basically just gas and a little bit for power). If you'd like I can ask them how much it cost them.

The most difficult part is guessing the future technology.

Originally Posted by ViennaSausages

Its a 31% dumping tariff and a 3-5 percent subsidy tariff, yielding a total of 34 to 36 percent which is not chicken feed.

On top of that, the tariff could change from year to year which means open ended, contingent liability for importers. Thus, what may be a 36 percent tariff this year could be a 100 percent tariff next year when the order (assuming it goes to order) is reviewed. Would you, as an importer, want to take that kind of gamble???

I sometimes get well into useage during the summer with my pool and jacuzzi.

Now, there are several ways to look at this. Many companies will suggest that you get a system that supplies half of your average needs. However, a 2ish kw (~280 kwh) system would still mean that I'm well into the third tier and paying rediculous electric rates.

Ideally the system would be sized so that I'm kept in the lowest tier during peak usage. That means that it would need to be 5-6 kw so it could provide near 700 kwh.

A 5 kw system, based on one estimate, is about $30k. After incentives and rebates, it would be about $20k.

Assuming a yearly cash inflow of $1800 from the zero electric bill (12 months at $150/month in saving) for 20 years and an alternative interest rate of 4.5% this gives me a decent bottom line and could turn around in about 10 years or slightly more.



Now, all this assumes that energy prices stay the same but what if energy prices skyrocket.

So, if I could find a deal for 10 large I'd probably pull the trigger. You know who is apparently attempting to ensure our rates rise to increase alternate production. I've seen the laws being passed for new home construction and then for all of us suckers so it's not if you jump in it's when. I just don't want to be too old to work on the @#$ thing myself and have to pay out the A$$ when I won't have the spare cash flow to do it.

[Think4Yourself]

Originally Posted by ViennaSausages

Oh, FWIW, they don't have to win anything at the WTO. US law dictates that orders go into place when the US International Trade Commission and the US Department of Commerce says that they should go into place. Any WTO appeal happens 3 to 4 years down the road...

Perhaphs I was miss informed but I thought we had to win a case with the WTO before the tariffs were implemented or else China could claim we didn't follow proper procedure and retaliate.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

1ATP,

AS far a new technology, its happening. But kinda like the hydrogen power car developed in the 60s and Honda putting into production recently, it may/may not come to fruition. Here is one that I read about recently.
"Spray-On" Photovoltaic Windows - Technology Review

The other problem I have with PV right now is manufacturer guarantees and longevity. Its not so much who is building the PV panels, but who are they using cell wise. The PV industry had a small bubble for a while but IMHO that market is incredibly volatile especially for residential. Some questions that you should be wondering is what happens the cells go south or arent working up to peak anymore after 5-6 years? You are closer to the coast than I am, so based on your calculations what is the real benefit when the marine layer is around?

I have been investing with an alternative energy wholesaler called NRG for some time and they have been making some really smart decisions and have weathered the storm somewhat. They were even recently granted contracts with the State for setting up charging stations for cars. They are looking at solar thermal right now as well as some PV to produce their energy. Its the big guys that sometimes set these trends that trickle down especially in industries like this.

I just think if you hang on just a bit longer we might see some less unsightly and more efficient PV panels that are relatively affordable or an alternative like the spray on/roll out stuff in the article above. In the meantime do your research and keep up on it. If you see sweetheart deal that works with your budget, I dont see why you wouldnt want to pull the trigger.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

1ATP,

AS far a new technology, its happening. But kinda like the hydrogen power car developed in the 60s and Honda putting into production recently, it may/may not come to fruition. Here is one that I read about recently.
"Spray-On" Photovoltaic Windows - Technology Review

The other problem I have with PV right now is manufacturer guarantees and longevity. Its not so much who is building the PV panels, but who are they using cell wise. The PV industry had a small bubble for a while but IMHO that market is incredibly volatile especially for residential. Some questions that you should be wondering is what happens the cells go south or arent working up to peak anymore after 5-6 years? You are closer to the coast than I am, so based on your calculations what is the real benefit when the marine layer is around?

I have been investing with an alternative energy wholesaler called NRG for some time and they have been making some really smart decisions and have weathered the storm somewhat. They were even recently granted contracts with the State for setting up charging stations for cars. They are looking at solar thermal right now as well as some PV to produce their energy. Its the big guys that sometimes set these trends that trickle down especially in industries like this.

I just think if you hang on just a bit longer we might see some less unsightly and more efficient PV panels that are relatively affordable or an alternative like the spray on/roll out stuff in the article above. In the meantime do your research and keep up on it. If you see sweetheart deal that works with your budget, I dont see why you wouldnt want to pull the trigger.

I'm for sure working the angles. What sucks is dealing with, what appears, to be the "I get paid by the sell" yahoos that won't be there in 6 months anyway. This for the outfits that are working with the local leech E Comp.

[tonyinsd]

Well, Sullivan seems to be very highly rated. If they're going to pick up the cost of installation and maintenance in the hopes of taking the subsidy, selling the excess power back to SDG&E and profiting on that, I'd be fine with it.

They're not some Johnny come lately. They've been around for a long time.

[Think4Yourself]

I know Sullivan Solar also likes to give back to the community by donating to community events and sponsoring local news coverage on KPBS.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Thanks all,

I've got a couple different outfits giving me estimates. What I'm trying to avoid is:
1. Letting them into the house and having to use a prybar to get them to leave.
2. Relentless phone calls after the fact.
3. Pushy salesman that won't take no for an answer.

I'm trying to stick with this information.
2400 SF, 2 fridges, pool, jacuzzi, AC/heat unit 3 ton, 3 computers and a good location for panels. I fail to see the need of going through a process similar to selling a house just to get an "estimate". My patch panel is exterior.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

Thanks all,

I've got a couple different outfits giving me estimates. What I'm trying to avoid is:
1. Letting them into the house and having to use a prybar to get them to leave.
2. Relentless phone calls after the fact.
3. Pushy salesman that won't take no for an answer.

I'm trying to stick with this information.
2400 SF, 2 fridges, pool, jacuzzi, AC/heat unit 3 ton, 3 computers and a good location for panels. I fail to see the need of going through a process similar to selling a house just to get an "estimate". My patch panel is exterior.

I feel your pain.
If you havent yet, just sign up for Angies List. Since signing up, we have had a really great oppt to filter through the crappy salesy types.
We have several projects being done in the next week on the house here in LG as well as in Murietta just from using their system.

There are quite a few discount coupons for signing up for Angies List online, its only $12 or so. Highly recommended.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

I feel your pain.
If you havent yet, just sign up for Angies List. Since signing up, we have had a really great oppt to filter through the crappy salesy types.
We have several projects being done in the next week on the house here in LG as well as in Murietta just from using their system.

There are quite a few discount coupons for signing up for Angies List online, its only $12 or so. Highly recommended.

That's a good idea. I usually don't need such a service as I've done everything myself but I won't be attempting this time