Housing getting more expensive in SF (and all over the US) (Oakland: real estate, 2014)

[jade408]

Well obviously, we all know this:
While S.F. prices rise, housing becoming less affordable all over the nation - On The Block

But there were some interesting trends here I thought I would note.



So look at these Redfin stats. The average downpayment for a purchaser in SF was 43%. The median home price is $850k, so people are putting $365K down. Obviously that leaves home purchasing open to only a select few very well off people (with tons of liquid assets).

That is very very scary.

[Hemlock140]

Not really, all it takes is for them to have bought a house 15-20 years ago and have $365k in equity. We have the same situation here, though our median is only $625k, but we bought for $199k in 1993. Not that we need anything bigger but that's $426k in equity and we are not "very well off." Of course we probably couldn't afford the payments on a house for $865k even with $365 down.

[jade408]

Originally Posted by Hemlock140

Not really, all it takes is for them to have bought a house 15-20 years ago and have $365k in equity. We have the same situation here, though our median is only $625k, but we bought for $199k in 1993. Not that we need anything bigger but that's $426k in equity and we are not "very well off." Of course we probably couldn't afford the payments on a house for $865k even with $365 down.

So that leaves the 30-somethings with...........

Basically, it means the only way to "get in" to the housing market is to sell a home that appreciated, or have a ton of money.

[shooting4life]

Originally Posted by jade408

So that leaves the 30-somethings with...........

Basically, it means the only way to "get in" to the housing market is to sell a home that appreciated, or have a ton of money.

Welcome to the Bay Area.

As an under 30 home owner your only real option is to either A. Make a **** load of money or B. Live in a less than desirable neighborhood.

I did option B.

[jade408]

Originally Posted by shooting4life

Welcome to the Bay Area.

As an under 30 home owner your only real option is to either A. Make a **** load of money or B. Live in a less than desirable neighborhood.

I did option B.

Unfortunately the undesirable neighborhood doesn't have my bare minimum requirements generally. So I gotta keep waiting. I have quite a few things I am ok to compromise on, but walkability and transit access aren't on the list. Oh...it doesn't help that I only want a condo. No SFH for me. All of the condos in my budget in Oakland are too far in the hills to meet the walkability requirements. That limits my neighborhood choices significantly. Although it really shouldn't.

[Ceece]

Originally Posted by jade408

Unfortunately the undesirable neighborhood doesn't have my bare minimum requirements generally. So I gotta keep waiting. I have quite a few things I am ok to compromise on, but walkability and transit access aren't on the list. Oh...it doesn't help that I only want a condo. No SFH for me. All of the condos in my budget in Oakland are too far in the hills to meet the walkability requirements. That limits my neighborhood choices significantly. Although it really shouldn't.

And it wouldn't if there weren't a million of you trying to get the same thing. We can't artificially limit demand not matter how hard we try.

[jade408]

Originally Posted by Ceece

And it wouldn't if there weren't a million of you trying to get the same thing. We can't artificially limit demand not matter how hard we try.

But we could increase the supply of that type. We've got 45 BART stations and 20 Caltrain stations. And who knows how many walkable "main streets."

[shooting4life]

Originally Posted by jade408

But we could increase the supply of that type. We've got 45 BART stations and 20 Caltrain stations. And who knows how many walkable "main streets."

You are going to either need to adjust your requirments or make more money. You may be able to wait till the next real estate down turn, but that won't be 3-5 more years.

If you ride a bike instead if walk you can greatly increase the area you can live. Also you should not limit yourself to Oakland, why not look at San Leandro, Hayward or where I am in, San Lorenzo. All are close to Bart.

Their is no such thing as a perfect house in the Bay Area, just the best compromise.

[jade408]

Originally Posted by shooting4life

You are going to either need to adjust your requirments or make more money. You may be able to wait till the next real estate down turn, but that won't be 3-5 more years.

If you ride a bike instead if walk you can greatly increase the area you can live. Also you should not limit yourself to Oakland, why not look at San Leandro, Hayward or where I am in, San Lorenzo. All are close to Bart.

Their is no such thing as a perfect house in the Bay Area, just the best compromise.

There isn't "a perfect house" thats for sure, but most of the Bay Area isn't designed in a way for you to be "transit dependent."

I don't particularly like Hayward or San Leandro and only the downtown areas are semi-feasible. Biking in Hayward would be awful. Not enough infrastructure. I see the brave souls biking on Jackson where it is dark and packed with speeding cars. For me transit/walkabiliy access isn't so much about me, but about my friends that don't drive. And having access to the other amenities that pop up when a large portion of people choose not to drive (car sharing and the like), for when I get rid of my car, so being at a transit systems core where there is a lot of "good service" nearby is best.

I will wait it out, see what new development pops up, and re-evaluate my budget as needed.

But at the end of the day, we have a severe housing crisis in the Bay Area, where even well paid people don't have many housing options. And we are pricing out everyone who is not well paid from the area. Additionally, since it is now "hip" to live somewhere walkable with transit, the people that need it most, the ones that do not have transportation choice, are priced out of the very neighborhoods they need. I've got no urgent need to buy, although I'd like to, and I am 1-1.5 years out from when I'll be in the right position to make that sort of commitment. I've got my Oakland target list, and maybe by the time I am ready I can expand my list to more buildings or more neighborhoods. Or compromise a bit on amenities (ahem washer/dryer) to get what I want.

But what about the "other people" who have to live far out and endure terrible commutes because they have been priced completely out.

[shooting4life]

Originally Posted by jade408

There isn't "a perfect house" thats for sure, but most of the Bay Area isn't designed in a way for you to be "transit dependent."

I don't particularly like Hayward or San Leandro and only the downtown areas are semi-feasible. Biking in Hayward would be awful. Not enough infrastructure. I see the brave souls biking on Jackson where it is dark and packed with speeding cars. For me transit/walkabiliy access isn't so much about me, but about my friends that don't drive. And having access to the other amenities that pop up when a large portion of people choose not to drive (car sharing and the like), for when I get rid of my car, so being at a transit systems core where there is a lot of "good service" nearby is best.

I will wait it out, see what new development pops up, and re-evaluate my budget as needed.

But at the end of the day, we have a severe housing crisis in the Bay Area, where even well paid people don't have many housing options. And we are pricing out everyone who is not well paid from the area. Additionally, since it is now "hip" to live somewhere walkable with transit, the people that need it most, the ones that do not have transportation choice, are priced out of the very neighborhoods they need. I've got no urgent need to buy, although I'd like to, and I am 1-1.5 years out from when I'll be in the right position to make that sort of commitment. I've got my Oakland target list, and maybe by the time I am ready I can expand my list to more buildings or more neighborhoods. Or compromise a bit on amenities (ahem washer/dryer) to get what I want.

But what about the "other people" who have to live far out and endure terrible commutes because they have been priced completely out.

And I would like a 3/2 with 1500 sq feet within walking distance from work in a good school district but I don't have 2 million dollars so I had to lower my expectations.

You can get two out of three in the Bay Area unless you have super big money

Good commute
Good schools
Reasonable price